USSR invades Ukraine. (43 Viewers)

Alan Dugdales Moustache

Well-Known Member
Absolutely no chance would they go into Poland. They would get their arses handed too them, would give the west the opportunity to 'reunite' Ukraine and even expand the Ukrainian boarder into the Russian oil fields. Give control of the Volga to the Ukrainians. Pro Western government in charge of the oil, as well as cutting off Russian access to the Black and Caspian sea's.
Completely disagree. We should be arming Poland and the Baltic countries to the teeth. Absolutely nothing suggests anything other than Putin wants to recreate the USSR.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
Completely disagree. We should be arming Poland and the Baltic countries to the teeth. Absolutely nothing suggests anything other than Putin wants to recreate the USSR.
He does want to rebuild his little empire doesn't he. Not sure how far he will go. I can't see him going into a NATO country, but he could well target Moldova and Georgia and if he were to take them, I am not sure where he will stop. He is power mad and does think he is invincible.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
He does want to rebuild his little empire doesn't he. Not sure how far he will go. I can't see him going into a NATO country, but he could well target Moldova and Georgia and if he were to take them, I am not sure where he will stop. He is power mad and does think he is invincible.
He's a zealot.
This isn't something new or even as recent as 2014. He's been writing and speaking about restoring the Soviet Union and Russia's influence long before then.
If Russia were a healthy democracy etc then it wouldn't be totally opposed in this whole region by a sizeable minority. . USA not particularly popular in this region for various reasons.
Plus the nationalists seem to believe they would have more freedom/less interference under Russian control than they do being in the EU. People still don't grasp that the Western and Eastern European mentalities etc are different in so many ways.
 

Alan Dugdales Moustache

Well-Known Member
He does want to rebuild his little empire doesn't he. Not sure how far he will go. I can't see him going into a NATO country, but he could well target Moldova and Georgia and if he were to take them, I am not sure where he will stop. He is power mad and does think he is invincible.
He won't stop . He may well think that his armed forces are not run as tactically and logistically as it should be, though he's massively underestimated Ukrainian resistance. He'll hang around in Ukraine as long as possible and flatten as much of it as he can. He'll buy as much time as possible and bolster his armed forces as much as possible within Russia over the next year or two .
Unless Ukraine are willing to give some territory in order for a Russian withdrawal I don't see this ending for years.
We need to be ready for phase two.
 

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
He won't stop . He may well think that his armed forces are not run as tactically and logistically as it should be, though he's massively underestimated Ukrainian resistance. He'll hang around in Ukraine as long as possible and flatten as much of it as he can. He'll buy as much time as possible and bolster his armed forces as much as possible within Russia over the next year or two .
Unless Ukraine are willing to give some territory in order for a Russian withdrawal I don't see this ending for years.
We need to be ready for phase two.

A couple of issues might change this though. Russia appears to continue to struggle militarily (other than indiscriminate bombing) and there are rumours of severe supply shortages, this means even if they ‘win’, they could be turned over again relatively quickly. By all accounts they won’t have the troop numbers to maintain a controlling presence. They will know/appreciate this

In addition oil has just plummeted on the back of China covid lockdowns. This could be painful. Ukraine will also budge on a couple of things if necessary

Maybe I’m forever the optimist (comes with supporting city) but it does feel like there is a deal to be done.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
A couple of issues might change this though. Russia appears to continue to struggle militarily (other than indiscriminate bombing) and there are rumours of severe supply shortages, this means even if they ‘win’, they could be turned over again relatively quickly. By all accounts they won’t have the troop numbers to maintain a controlling presence. They will know/appreciate this

In addition oil has just plummeted on the back of China covid lockdowns. This could be painful. Ukraine will also budge on a couple of things if necessary

Maybe I’m forever the optimist (comes with supporting city) but it does feel like there is a deal to be done.
Needs willing people on both sides doesn’t it?
 

PVA

Well-Known Member
He won't stop . He may well think that his armed forces are not run as tactically and logistically as it should be, though he's massively underestimated Ukrainian resistance. He'll hang around in Ukraine as long as possible and flatten as much of it as he can. He'll buy as much time as possible and bolster his armed forces as much as possible within Russia over the next year or two .
Unless Ukraine are willing to give some territory in order for a Russian withdrawal I don't see this ending for years.
We need to be ready for phase two.

They have something like 75% of their entire armed forces in Ukraine at the moment (and have suffered big losses). They would need a big chunk of that to occupy Ukraine (assuming continued resistance).

They have no economy to be able to rebuild the army.

There is absolutely zero chance he can take Poland.
 
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Grendel

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jimmyhillsfanclub

Well-Known Member
Good to see little Napoleon getting in on the act. He’ll be doing dancing with the stars soon. What’s happened to Olaf - is he just asleep somewhere?


I don't normally do the spectator, but always happy to make exceptions when it makes jokes at the little Emperors expense.....

 

PVA

Well-Known Member
On here, or in the peace talks?


giphy.gif
 

PVA

Well-Known Member
I don't normally do the spectator, but always happy to make exceptions when it makes jokes at the little Emperors expense.....


I'm no fan of his but Macron wearing hoodies/casual clothing is not a new thing. I know that doesn't suit The Spectator/Telegraph narrative though.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
A couple of issues might change this though. Russia appears to continue to struggle militarily (other than indiscriminate bombing) and there are rumours of severe supply shortages, this means even if they ‘win’, they could be turned over again relatively quickly. By all accounts they won’t have the troop numbers to maintain a controlling presence. They will know/appreciate this

In addition oil has just plummeted on the back of China covid lockdowns. This could be painful. Ukraine will also budge on a couple of things if necessary

Maybe I’m forever the optimist (comes with supporting city) but it does feel like there is a deal to be done.
Maybe there is a deal to be done.

But if it was it's more a matter of how long would Putin stick to it? If he agreed it'd only be because he needed to replenish supplies etc. He would not see it as ending his pursuit of Ukraine - he believes Russia (and so by extension, he) has a right to control that country.
 

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
They have something like 75% of their entire armed forces in Ukraine at the moment (and have suffered big losses). They would need a big chunk of that to occupy Ukraine (assuming continued resistance).

They have no economy to be able to rebuild the army.

There is absolutely zero chance he can take Poland.
280k combat forces in total. Take away Ukraine ‘Special Operations’ and we have a gaping hole in Russia‘s defence. Conscripts will bloster this of course.
 

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
Maybe there is a deal to be done.

But if it was it's more a matter of how long would Putin stick to it? If he agreed it'd only be because he needed to replenish supplies etc. He would not see it as ending his pursuit of Ukraine - he believes Russia (and so by extension, he) has a right to control that country.

Agreed, there is that risk. Quite a few commentators were advising against any ceasefire as thats exactly what he’d use it for. However if there was a formal agreement it’s likely the west would still ensure Ukraine and border countries are also fully armed/rearmed.

I do wonder if Putin might now accept that his ideal world isn’t going to happen. A long shot possibly but maybe he really did think the Ukrainians would roll over and many (or enough) would welcome him with open arms. This was/is obviously not the case so accepting something might be better than the alternative….a flattened neighbouring country and years of guerrilla warfare

All optimistic guesswork but who knows. I appreciate he’s maybe just as likely to take things up another notch or two
 

xcraigx

Well-Known Member


It's not the first time the Russians have seemingly made a move and nothing has come of it but it's worth watching out for. Odessa has had this threat sitting off it's coast for a quite some time now so it's hopefully it's well defended. It'll need to be. Moldova will be nervously watching on.
 

Alan Dugdales Moustache

Well-Known Member
extremely brave - she has been detained surprise surprise - end of career moment until sputin gets his P45
I've just read on the red button that she has been fined the equivalent of £214 for the video message. That's extraordinary.

....what it doesn't say is that she's been carted off to a cell and beated , abused and won't be heard of again for another 15 years. So the fine is just academic.
 

PVA

Well-Known Member
It's not the first time the Russians have seemingly made a move and nothing has come of it but it's worth watching out for. Odessa has had this threat sitting off it's coast for a quite some time now so it's hopefully it's well defended. It'll need to be. Moldova will be nervously watching on.

From what I've read, an assault on Odessa would be pretty suicidal for Russia.
 

Mcbean

Well-Known Member
From what I've read, an assault on Odessa would be pretty suicidal for Russia.
It would however cut Ukraine off from Sea imports -the Russians already sunk the old Ukranaian Cruiser in the harbour i believe
 

PVA

Well-Known Member
Interesting. Can you expand?

I think the main factor is how long they've had to prepare. An amphibious assault on Odessa has been touted for so long that they've beefed up their defenses.


If the monuments are this well protected then imagine how well the beaches and other strategic points are defended!

odessa-ukraine-defense.jpg
 

eastwoodsdustman

Well-Known Member
I think the main factor is how long they've had to prepare. An amphibious assault on Odessa has been touted for so long that they've beefed up their defenses.


If the monuments are this well protected then imagine how well the beaches and other strategic points are defended!

odessa-ukraine-defense.jpg
A couple of heavy guns pointed out to sea will keep the Russian navy well away. They cant afford to lose a few helicopters let alone a billion pound warship or two.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Don't know if it's just that they've been reported more the last few days, but there seems to have been a few Western press killed in the last few days, esp. ones working for US networks.

Probably isn't, but wondered if it might be a new Russian tactic to goad the West into getting involved.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
Don't know if it's just that they've been reported more the last few days, but there seems to have been a few Western press killed in the last few days, esp. ones working for US networks.

Probably isn't, but wondered if it might be a new Russian tactic to goad the West into getting involved.
It is
 

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