Xg table (3 Viewers)

[speedie87]

For what it’s worth we are 6th in the xg table.

last season after poor start we were bottom half in actual table but top 6 in this and after more games reverted closer

 

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[Evo1883]

For what it’s worth we are 6th in the xg table.

last season after poor start we were bottom half in actual table but top 6 in this and after more games reverted closer

Yes last season showed similar, we should be scoring goals basically .. players like simms have to start stepping up

People don't like xg tables but they show a clear underperforming of the players infront of goal

Ironically , the xgA table shows we are conceding somewhat crappy goals too

 

[Mr Panda]

Aside from the chance against Norwich when Simms was through, have the quality of chances for him been good in the other games we've seen?

I can perhaps remember another header that he got under a little

 

[Evo1883]

Aside from the chance against Norwich when Simms was through, have the quality of chances for him been good in the other games we've seen?

I can perhaps remember another header that he got under a little

He had a half decent chance at Bristol which he did laughably bad with

 

[PVA]

Simms is very much a confidence player it seems.

The difficult thing is dropping him will presumably only knock is confidence but if he isn't performing then what do you do.

Feels like one of BTA or Norm is close to getting a start soon.

 

[clint van damme]

Simms is very much a confidence player it seems.

The difficult thing is dropping him will presumably only knock is confidence but if he isn't performing then what do you do.

Feels like one of BTA or Norm is close to getting a start soon.

If his confidence is low it's puzzling why.
He had a very decent 2nd half of the season, scored in an FA cup semi and scored against his old Premiership club pre season.

 

[Matt smith]

Yes last season showed similar, we should be scoring goals basically .. players like simms have to start stepping up

People don't like xg tables but they show a clear underperforming of the players infront of goal

Ironically , the xgA table shows we are conceding somewhat crappy goals too

We constantly concede crappy goals

 

[Evo1883]

We constantly concede crappy goals

Well unlucky is the better term

Goal at Bristol should have been disallowed

Deflection v oxford , deflection v norwich

That's 3 of our 5 goals conceded

 

[Matt smith]

Well unlucky is the better term

Goal at Bristol should have been disallowed

Deflection v oxford , deflection v norwich

That's 3 of our 5 goals conceded

Unlucky is being nice Evo

the Oxford and Norwich goals were all woeful defending

 

[Mr Panda]

He had a half decent chance at Bristol which he did laughably bad with

Think I remember but can't find the footage.

I just think with Simms the quality of his chances haven't been that good. If he's fed something like he was in the Carabao cup tie he'll probably put it away. We all know what he can do and the type of goals he scores in the box. It'll be interesting to see how he adapts to the competition up front which he didn't really have last season - he's clearly a confidence player it's somewhat unhelpful for him to be hooked.

We're notoriously slow starters and we can't get him in the game in the first half so it is on him to adapt and find a way to force his presence. I kind of hope Robins benches him next time and brings him on from the 60th minute when it's a little more open and he can get on the end of things and build his confidence. Whilst things aren't clicking everywhere else I feel sorry for him when he's criticised because he does need more bodies around him.

 

[fernandopartridge]

If his confidence is low it's puzzling why.
He had a very decent 2nd half of the season, scored in an FA cup semi and scored against his old Premiership club pre season.

He'd scored once in 9 games at the end of the season to be fair, his form had abandoned him.

 

[TomRad85]

Yes last season showed similar, we should be scoring goals basically .. players like simms have to start stepping up

People don't like xg tables but they show a clear underperforming of the players infront of goal

Ironically , the xgA table shows we are conceding somewhat crappy goals too

I think if there's anything at all in the Billing plus cash offer for Simms, I'd have taken it personally. Think we'd have been better for it.
I say this as someone who stuck up for Simms a lot and was absolutely furious we were persisting with Godden.
Hopeful he rediscovers his touch and holds his value.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[Perennial Lurker]

I think if there's anything at all in the Billing plus cash offer for Simms, I'd have taken it personally. Think we'd have been better for it.
I say this as someone who stuck up for Simms a lot and was absolutely furious we were persisting with Godden.
Hopeful he rediscovers his touch and holds his value.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

As we , hopefully, progress with the model this is the point we will come to . Selling an established star but replacing them with better and potentially cash too.
The idea from some that we will never or can't sell players is nonsense .

 

[Liquid Gold]

 

[The watchmaker]

He had a half decent chance at Bristol which he did laughably bad with

Yeah he has not quite got going this season but tbh the Bristol City chance just didn't sit for him and he ended up shooting, off balence from a rotten angle and Norwich I think the defender timed a nudge perfectly.

I am quite surprised to see us 6th for xg though. Rudoni has missed a couple, Wright and BTA too... and let's not forget xg includes the 4 goals we have scored. Be interesting to see where we are with oxford taken out but the fact that we are playing pretty badly and still creating chances is actually mildly encouraging.

 

[Perennial Lurker]

Yeah he has not quite got going this season but tbh the Bristol City chance just didn't sit for him and he ended up shooting, off balence from a rotten angle and Norwich I think the defender timed a nudge perfectly.

I am quite surprised to see us 6th for xg though. Rudoni has missed a couple, Wright and BTA too... and let's not forget xg includes the 4 goals we have scored. Be interesting to see where we are with oxford taken out but the fact that we are playing pretty badly and still creating chances is actually mildly encouraging.

It's very similar to last season's start as regards xg. As bad as we were at the start of last season we were in the top 6-8 as regards xg
I'm not clued up on most data but others suggested that xg is a fairly solid benchmark

 

[Nuskyblue]

It's very similar to last season's start as regards xg. As bad as we were at the start of last season we were in the top 6-8 as regards xg
I'm not clued up on most data but others suggested that xg is a fairly solid benchmark

The bulk or maybe half our xG (what is it, like 5.5 or 6 xG?) was in the Oxford game. We struggle to create good quality chances ATM. Lots of nearly moments but the final ball/decision has been lacking.

 

[alexccfc99]

xG is a load of tosh

Middlesbrough got drummed 5-0 off Stoke last week but had a higher Xg...

 

[Frostie]

The bulk or maybe half our xG (what is it, like 5.5 or 6 xG?) was in the Oxford game. We struggle to create good quality chances ATM. Lots of nearly moments but the final ball/decision has been lacking.

Overall xG from Opta = 5.48

Stoke - 0.74
Oxford - 2.95
Bristol City - 0.64
Norwich - 1.15

 

[Frostie]

xG is a load of tosh

Middlesbrough got drummed 5-0 off Stoke last week but had a higher Xg...

And?

 

[Ccfcisparks]

xG is an extremely valuable stat.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Yes last season showed similar, we should be scoring goals basically .. players like simms have to start stepping up

People don't like xg tables but they show a clear underperforming of the players infront of goal

Ironically , the xgA table shows we are conceding somewhat crappy goals too

The xgA table does not surprise me at all. All of our goals have been soft so far. Yes, Bristol’s was a great strike but we gave him acres of space.

I need to rewatch the Norwich goal but in the stand it felt like another soft goal.

In the next games I can see Thomas and Kitching coming back into CB. If we start keeping clean sheets it no longer is a coincidence.

 

[GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee]

xG is a load of tosh

Middlesbrough got drummed 5-0 off Stoke last week but had a higher Xg...

xG is useless if used isolated. It is very valuable for establishing long-term trends.

 

[fernandopartridge]

The xgA table does not surprise me at all. All of our goals have been soft so far. Yes, Bristol’s was a great strike but we gave him acres of space.

I need to rewatch the Norwich goal but in the stand it felt like another soft goal.

In the next games I can see Thomas and Kitching coming back into CB. If we start keeping clean sheets it no longer is a coincidence.

There is an issue over falling in those second balls isn't there?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

There is an issue over falling in those second balls isn't there?

Yes. Even the Oxford goal (first one), Simms was a scapegoat for many on here. If Binks wins a header in the box, it doesn’t lead to Simms poor touch and the goal.

There’s just too much indecision and/or disorganisation in the box. Ironically, I felt more at ease watching the Bristol cup game than the league game despite us conceding a higher xG in the game we won (0.89 LC v 0.66 on the league).

On the ball, Lati and Binks look cultured and really good, defensively they both look soft. That’s the eye test and the xgA supports that view so far.

As Pep said, the pre-season is over now and the after the international break is when the season really starts.

 

[Jamesimus]

xG is a load of tosh

Middlesbrough got drummed 5-0 off Stoke last week but had a higher Xg...

Tell us why then?

 

[fatso]

We constantly concede crappy goals

Not helped by not playing our best 2 CH's

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yes. Even the Oxford goal (first one), Simms was a scapegoat for many on here. If Binks wins a header in the box, it doesn’t lead to Simms poor touch and the goal.

There’s just too much indecision and/or disorganisation in the box. Ironically, I felt more at ease watching the Bristol cup game than the league game despite us conceding a higher xG in the game we won (0.89 LC v 0.66 on the league).

On the ball, Lati and Binks look cultured and really good, defensively they both look soft. That’s the eye test and the xgA supports that view so far.

As Pep said, the pre-season is over now and the after the international break is when the season really starts.

It’s another argument against crowding our own box at set pieces. At the most basic level, it prevents the keeper from helping to command his area and I have long thought only helps the attacking team’s chances.

 

[Nuskyblue]

Overall xG from Opta = 5.48

Stoke - 0.74
Oxford - 2.95
Bristol City - 0.64
Norwich - 1.15

One outlier there (small data set for this season). I'd imagine the tail end of last season was the same which is a worry. Bad at the back and poor going forward only ends up one way...

I recall us having more and better chances in the games at the start of last season.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It’s another argument against crowding our own box at set pieces. At the most basic level, it prevents the keeper from helping to command his area and I have long thought only helps the attacking team’s chances.

The ‘meta’ seems to be for teams to pack the box with all there players. Not many teams leave anyone up nowadays.

The issue, in my view, was was a failure of organisation. To use an example, if McFadz was playing I’d assume he’d be talking to get people out pushing out.

The worry going into this season is a general lack of leaders in the team outside of Sheaf. The leaders of last season; Sheaf, Kelly, Godden and McFadz have all gone barring Sheaf.

 

[wingy]

He'd scored once in 9 games at the end of the season to be fair, his form had abandoned him.

That was a team ethic tbf Fernando!

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The ‘meta’ seems to be for teams to pack the box with all there players. Not many teams leave anyone up nowadays.

The issue, in my view, was was a failure of organisation. To use an example, if McFadz was playing I’d assume he’d be talking to get people out pushing out.

The worry going into this season is a general lack of leaders in the team outside of Sheaf. The leaders of last season; Sheaf, Kelly, Godden and McFadz have all gone barring Sheaf.

The ‘meta’ is that because Pep started doing it and he sets trends. That doesn’t mean we can’t use our eyes or think for ourselves when we see it’s causing us problems at both ends of the pitch.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

The ‘meta’ is that because Pep started doing it and he sets trends. That doesn’t mean we can’t use our eyes or think for ourselves when we see it’s causing us problems at both ends of the pitch.

It’s not a Pep thing, I remember us defending corners this way since Coleman and Boothroyd.

This thing about leaving 1-2 players up top is something the fans feel good about. In reality, the likelihood of clearing the ball and a forward getting onto it and then scoring from it is low.

Keeping everyone back, you have a natural advantage in corners hence the % of goals from corners is very low.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It’s not a Pep thing, I remember us defending corners this way since Coleman and Boothroyd.

This thing about leaving 1-2 players up top is something the fans feel good about. In reality, the likelihood of clearing the ball and a forward getting onto it and then scoring from it is low.

Keeping everyone back, you have a natural advantage in corners hence the % of goals from corners is very low.

Would love to see some more detailed analysis on that without derailing the thread as I remain unconvinced.

 

[Perennial Lurker]

Would love to see some more detailed analysis on that without derailing the thread as I remain unconvinced.

Didn't someone post a stat last season ,when this was discussed for the eleventy billionth time , that less then 2% of corners result in goals across all 4 divisions