Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (196 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

so the caveats are that they're working with very small samples sizes, it's kind of too early to tell and so they have wide confidence intervals, but I'm afraid the preliminary number they're reporting is a 30% increase in mortality. The "point three" comes in if the infection mortality rate (IFR) is around 1%, which I understand it is for 60 year olds, i.e. The old variants had IFR 1% and the new variant of concern has IFR 1.3% for that age group. The increase in mortality seems to be roughly consistent across ages.

The problem with statistics is they don’t help with the virology. The government are clearly pinning everything as ‘well it’d have been fine if we hadn’t got the variant’ which they’re using to work backwards from ‘we did nothing wrong’. What we need quite simply are lab tests of the vaccine against the variant and I’m sure these are happening.

But there are too many variables at play to attribute the rise to it and while the statistics will not be wrong it is biology that will give the ultimate answer

 

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[CCFCSteve]

No Steve. There isn’t a conspiracy by several university departments and Public Health England to keep lockdown.

Jesus H Christ. I get people are sick of it, but try and keep on planet Earth.

Im not saying it’s a conspiracy at all Shmmeee, the data is the data (even if it’s limited). I’m saying it helps re-enforce the message for people to stay at home and also puts some of the Tories who are pushing for end of lockdown back in their box for time being

If you read my post again I was saying scientists/PHE are they’re damned if they do, damned it the don’t release info on limited data. I do however think they should be careful though as if data proves to be incorrect people lose faith and mistrust leads to people ignoring advice

Ps for clarity I personally wouldn’t be even consider reducing lockdown restrictions until March and even then it is totally dependent on vaccine roll out/case numbers/hospital capacity

 

[Grendel]

We had our honeymoon booked for July in Central Europe, I have seen enough to say we won’t be allowed abroad or even if we are it’ll be a huge faff.

Spain cases are soaring and others will no doubt follow as the new variant takes hold so looks like it’s doubtful

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Im not saying it’s a conspiracy at all Shmmeee. I’m saying it helps re-enforce the message for people to stay at home and also puts some of the Tories who are pushing for end of lockdown back in their box for time being

If you read my post again I was saying scientists/PHE are they’re damned if they do, damned it the don’t release info on limited data. I do however think they should be careful though as if data proves to be incorrect people lose faith and mistrust leads to people ignoring advice

Ps for clarity I personally wouldn’t be even consider reducing lockdown restrictions until March and even then it is totally dependent on vaccine roll out/case numbers/hospital capacity

Those first 15 million people won’t all have reliable protection until March anyway. And I already foresee arguments coming up over who is ‘allowed’ to do what first when rules get relaxed.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Spain cases are soaring and others will no doubt follow as the new variant takes hold so looks like it’s doubtful

I agreed which is why I pulled the plug on it now and booked somewhere in Sussex

 

[LastGarrison]

Hats off to everyone at Quinton Park Surgery. Got the vaccination process running like a dream.

Dropped the Old Man off and he was in, jabbed, given his vaccine card and walking next door to the Church within 5 minutes.

Sat out the 15 mins waiting time in the Church and was straight back out and into the car.

I tell you what if you’re feeling down, go and sit outside one of the vaccination centres and see how many happy and relieved people are leaving even if it just the first dose.

 

[David O'Day]

Covid: 'More deadly' UK variant claim played down by scientists

One says he is surprised Boris Johnson shared the early data when it is "not particularly strong".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

If the variant adds 0.7 to r does that mean without it the r rate is currently 0.1-0.3???

 

[chiefdave]

The scientists/modellers release initial findings/commentary and although I wasn’t happy with the above, they can’t really win. You withhold that info and it’s found to be correct and they’d be uproar, you release it now and it’s scaremongering.

Think the issue is more how the data is presented. We know that a lot of people don't look any further than soundbites and we live in a world where things are reported on instantly. So when you have Johnson opening the briefing with:

I must tell you this afternoon that we have been informed today that, in addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – may be associated with a higher degree of mortality

That's immediately all over social media and being reported on by news services worldwide, I've seen friends in Canada and Australia posting alarming articles based on Johnson's opening comments.

Its 7 minutes into the briefing (I haven't timed it, the transcript I checked the quotes on it timestamped ) before there's further comment on it. By then we've had Johnson waffling on and Whitty going through a load of slides, how many people are still paying attention? That's the point at which Vallance says:

I do want to say a word about severity and mortality. When we look at data from hospitals, so patients who are in hospital with the virus, the outcomes for those with the original virus or the new variant look the same. So there’s no real evidence of an increase in mortality for those in hospital.

That puts things in a very different light to Johnsons opening statement. Even when Vallance expanded on the potential for the new variant to be worse he was carful to stress the limitations of the data.

However, when data are looked at, in terms of those who’ve been tested positive, so anyone who’s tested positive, there is evidence that there’s an increased risk for those who have the new variant compared to the old virus. Now that evidence is not yet strong. It’s a series of different bits of information that come together to support that. And I want to put it into context as to what it might mean, but stressing that these data currently uncertain, and we don’t have a very good estimate of the precise nature or indeed, whether it is overall increased, but it looks like it is. And I want to give some context.

Its the same as when they said the new variant was 'up to 70%' more infectious. The up to part was quickly forgotten and it became 70%. Since then the number has dropped and now could be as low as 30%. Obviously still bad news but nowhere near as bad as it was first reported.

 

[wingy]

If the variant adds 0.7 to r does that mean without it the r rate is currently 0.1-0.3???

I did wonder why Vallance used the example of a Sixty year old man.
As far as I know the percentage of the total number in the raw data has suggested 0.012 for all mortality sub 80 yr old, so if it was so would be 0.015 to that age group and below.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Hats off to everyone at Quinton Park Surgery. Got the vaccination process running like a dream.

Dropped the Old Man off and he was in, jabbed, given his vaccine card and walking next door to the Church within 5 minutes.

Sat out the 15 mins waiting time in the Church and was straight back out and into the car.

I tell you what if you’re feeling down, go and sit outside one of the vaccination centres and see how many happy and relieved people are leaving even if it just the first dose.

Have to say that despite so many fuck-ups the vaccination process does seem to be going well so fair play to the authorities for that.

Also good to hear that it's probably helping not just sort out the virus but mental health with the stress of worry.

Slight concern is some people misunderstanding what it means and taking unnecessary risks because they think they're protected before it's kicked in. Esp at the moment with so many cases and deaths and pressure on the NHS.

 

[skyblueinBaku]

First two bookings for our new venture. Please dm me if you want details of the house and location in Cornwall. The website is up the thread. Hope you’re feeling much better soon great expectations

Congratulations. Good luck for the future.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Appreciate still far from great but confirmed cases down to 33.5k. Vaccinations yesterday at nearly 480k !

And no City on to dampen some reasonably positive mid afternoon news ! (wouldnt mind a QPR equaliser though)

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

In England only, now up to 5.1 million first jab, 440k both jabs.

Mrs Sturgeon riding a wave on slightly tweaking whatever the UK government does and rolling out vaccines procured by it

 

[wingy]

Kenneth Branagh To Play British PM Boris Johnson In Sky Drama ‘This Sceptred Isle’

Henry V star Kenneth Branagh is to play British Prime Minister in Sky drama This Sceptred Isle. The project first emerged as part of a deal between The Trip director Michael Winterbottom and Fremantle’s Passenger, run by True Detective producer Richard Brown. Sky Atlantic has now boarded the...

deadline.com

 

[wingy]

Not sure about this, dependant on the treatment , being before an inquiry could be quite influential.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Kenneth Branagh To Play British PM Boris Johnson In Sky Drama ‘This Sceptred Isle’

Henry V star Kenneth Branagh is to play British Prime Minister in Sky drama This Sceptred Isle. The project first emerged as part of a deal between The Trip director Michael Winterbottom and Fremantle’s Passenger, run by True Detective producer Richard Brown. Sky Atlantic has now boarded the...

deadline.com

Makes sense - they both spout a load of old nonsense in a posh accent.

 

[SBAndy]

Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam

England's deputy chief medical officer urges those who have had the jab to stick to lockdown rules.

www.bbc.co.uk

An interesting (and mildly concerning) quote from the above article:

Its chair, Dr Chaand Nagpaul, told the BBC there were "growing concerns" that the vaccine could become less effective with doses 12 weeks apart.
Responding to the criticism, Prof Van-Tam said: "What none of these (who ask reasonable questions) will tell me is: who on the at-risk list should suffer slower access to their first dose so that someone else who's already had one dose (and therefore most of the protection) can get a second?"

For the sake of a few weeks, why the fuck shouldn’t the lower ‘at-risk’ people have slower access to the vaccine? I’ve been concerned about this for a while, as I know others have. My gran had her first vaccine yesterday which was the Pfizer one and her next appointment is in April. Why play fast and loose when Biontech came out and said “don’t stretch the vaccine timetable, we haven’t done any testing on what you intend to do”? Just fucking take our time if it means doing it right, surely. What if the initial dose ‘wears off’ after 6-8 weeks, that’s a fucking timebomb waiting to happen.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam

England's deputy chief medical officer urges those who have had the jab to stick to lockdown rules.

www.bbc.co.uk

An interesting (and mildly concerning) quote from the above article:



For the sake of a few weeks, why the fuck shouldn’t the lower ‘at-risk’ people have slower access to the vaccine? I’ve been concerned about this for a while, as I know others have. My gran had her first vaccine yesterday which was the Pfizer one and her next appointment is in April. Why play fast and loose when Biontech came out and said “don’t stretch the vaccine timetable, we haven’t done any testing on what you intend to do”? Just fucking take our time if it means doing it right, surely. What if the initial dose ‘wears off’ after 6-8 weeks, that’s a fucking timebomb waiting to happen.

Van Tam is far too heavily influenced by politicians

 

[fernandopartridge]

In fairness I read something the other day which suggested for this type of vaccine, 3 weeks is a minimum rather than an absolute target.
I do think the government is as usual trying to mislead with its messaging though. It must come out and be honest about the limitations.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Van Tam is far too heavily influenced by politicians

Don’t you mean ‘JVT’

 

[CCFCSteve]

Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam

England's deputy chief medical officer urges those who have had the jab to stick to lockdown rules.

www.bbc.co.uk

An interesting (and mildly concerning) quote from the above article:
For the sake of a few weeks, why the fuck shouldn’t the lower ‘at-risk’ people have slower access to the vaccine? I’ve been concerned about this for a while, as I know others have. My gran had her first vaccine yesterday which was the Pfizer one and her next appointment is in April. Why play fast and loose when Biontech came out and said “don’t stretch the vaccine timetable, we haven’t done any testing on what you intend to do”? Just fucking take our time if it means doing it right, surely. What if the initial dose ‘wears off’ after 6-8 weeks, that’s a fucking timebomb waiting to happen.

Depending on the speed of the roll out I wouldn’t be surprised if once over 70s (possibly over 60s) have been vaccinated they started pushing more second jabs for older age/higher risk groups. I certainly wouldn’t have an issue waiting

I think they’re right to be giving over 70s (as I say possibly over 60s) one jab first though.

 

[Sbarcher]

Just heard this morning that the brother of a good friend who had his jab over 3 weeks ago is very ill with COVID. He is in a nursing home but just confirms it takes some time to build up immunity.

 

[clint van damme]

Some good news.
Vaccinations hitting 500k a day. Good going.
610 deaths today, down slightly on last Sunday.
Israel reporting decreasing death rates among vaccinated age groups.

Edit - deaths actually up slightly on last week so not good news but cases down over 20%.

 

[Sbarcher]

 

[Sbarcher]

Graph from Israel over 60's

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

View attachment 18391

That’s great isn’t it

 

[Liquid Gold]

More good vaccine news. End of September for full vaccination, which should only come forward with, I assume, more available vaccines and better infrastructure. All the vulnerable will be done by April time so we'll be in tiers then and I reckon almost no lockdown at all by June.

 

[Seamus1]

Also talk of a nasal spray that is to soon go on sale which can allegedly reduce the risk of Covid-19 being spread. A second spray is also being looked at which early results are claiming to show 99.9% effectiveness. I’ll take both claims with a pinch of salt, however I am happy that in addition to the vaccine to prevent/minimise the chance of catching the virus, there is now some talk of an easy to acquire cure for those who have already been infected.

 

[shmmeee]

Gonna smash this shitty virus this year. Humanity rocks.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Also talk of a nasal spray that is to soon go on sale which can allegedly reduce the risk of Covid-19 being spread. A second spray is also being looked at which early results are claiming to show 99.9% effectiveness. I’ll take both claims with a pinch of salt, however I am happy that in addition to the vaccine to prevent/minimise the chance of catching the virus, there is now some talk of an easy to acquire cure for those who have already been infected.

That's my bigger hope long term, just make it like any other common cold virus.

 

[chiefdave]

More good vaccine news. End of September for full vaccination, which should only come forward with, I assume, more available vaccines and better infrastructure. All the vulnerable will be done by April time so we'll be in tiers then and I reckon almost no lockdown at all by June.

Will be interesting to see what the uptake is as we move forward. Is there a minimum uptake we need for the famed herd-immunity to kick in?

Flu vaccine uptake seems to run around 70-72% in the over 65s, assume this will be higher.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Also talk of a nasal spray that is to soon go on sale which can allegedly reduce the risk of Covid-19 being spread. A second spray is also being looked at which early results are claiming to show 99.9% effectiveness. I’ll take both claims with a pinch of salt, however I am happy that in addition to the vaccine to prevent/minimise the chance of catching the virus, there is now some talk of an easy to acquire cure for those who have already been infected.

There are already nasal applications for antibiotics to be fair

 

[chiefdave]

Also talk of a nasal spray that is to soon go on sale which can allegedly reduce the risk of Covid-19 being spread. A second spray is also being looked at which early results are claiming to show 99.9% effectiveness. I’ll take both claims with a pinch of salt, however I am happy that in addition to the vaccine to prevent/minimise the chance of catching the virus, there is now some talk of an easy to acquire cure for those who have already been infected.

Is that the one developed in Birmingham? Saw a piece on Sky News about that and the science was pretty mind blowing. They reckoned they could catch the virus in the nose and then apply a coating which prevents it from causing infection.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Some rumours of one vaccine efficacy being lower than hoped