Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Combined experience in mathematical modelling. Are you an expert I hadn’t realised. Sorry! Have you completed the same data analysis as the university of warwick modellers?
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (140 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
They’ve done quite a few of these Grendel and been quite good at it.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
I haven’t the expertise of Neil Ferguson whose expertise the government followed as without his expertise in modelling we could have reached 20,000 deaths by the time the virus had gone.
the assumptions are based purely on effacy rates
You seem rather agitated so I’ll leave it there
hill83
Well-Known Member
Job done then. Made up for you.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Im not trying to be agente provocateur I’m just not sure what the point is.
if it’s seriously suggesting locking down gatherings for 12 months with a U.K. vaccine quality by then of 5 times the entire population it’s absurd in terms of practicality.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
It’s not neil Ferguson its friends who work their balls off to help us so sharing it for interest. I’m only frustrated that you dismiss others expertise so readily for no reason that I can understand
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
How about the 39.5 yos?
Sky_Blue_Daz
Well-Known Member
I’ve been out working with district nurses for the last 3 weeks . Got a phone call from my manager Friday morning telling me I had to go for a covid test due to several colleagues and patients showing symptoms. Between The phonecall Friday morning and getting the test Friday afternoon 8 other staff members tested positive. Thankfully mine came back negative , Im due my 2 vaccine jab in April
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Bloody hell. Least you were negative mate
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
It does confuse me somewhat though Pete as approximately 99% of the hospitalisations come from the top 9 groups being vaccinated?
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
I’m trying to find the actual research to share rather than the newspaper story. It’s at different levels of efficacy isnt it
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Key statement from the paper's conclusion I think:
' A number of key vaccine parameters within the model are therefore based on parsimonious assumptions, and we identify the following three issues that require additional experimental data to refine model assumptions.
Firstly, as elucidated throughout this paper determining whether the vaccine blocks infection is key for the development of herd immunity and hence the role of vaccination in the long-term control of COVID-19. There is also the potential for the vaccine to further reduce viral shedding from vaccinated individuals, hence reducing onward transmission, but this is likely to be difficult to measure.
Secondly, we have assumed that efficacy against disease applies equally across the entire spectrum of disease, however if the vaccine has differential protection against the most severe disease this will impact our predictions for hospital admissions and deaths.
Finally, we expect efficacy to vary with age and between risk groups; incorporating such heterogeneity into models is key for more robust predictions. '
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The UoW paper is here: Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: When can the UK relax about COVID-19? (medrxiv.org)
A recent Israeli paper showing approximately 50% efficacy in preventing infection 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose in around 500,000 patients: 50625865 (medrxiv.org)
A recent Israeli paper showing approximately 50% efficacy in preventing infection 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose in around 500,000 patients: 50625865 (medrxiv.org)
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I’m
Jealousy mostly. He’s been stuck doing marketing for a third tier car brand all his life while these guys are doing things he can’t comprehend.
The fact he’s hung up on Ferguson tells you all you need to know. He’s got the data understanding of a German tabloid.
Jealousy mostly. He’s been stuck doing marketing for a third tier car brand all his life while these guys are doing things he can’t comprehend.
The fact he’s hung up on Ferguson tells you all you need to know. He’s got the data understanding of a German tabloid.
Thought that interview on TV over the weekend with the guy who was flown out of Wuhan with the 80 odd other people was intriguing ,was it yesterday ?
One year on from their evacuation.
Either suggesting it was a publicity stunt,or that they knew just what was coming, or that they made a balls of it .
Reckoned he'd have preferred to have been left in Wuhan .
One year on from their evacuation.
Either suggesting it was a publicity stunt,or that they knew just what was coming, or that they made a balls of it .
Reckoned he'd have preferred to have been left in Wuhan .
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
54 days was interesting about the start. Wasn’t too much China bashing or sensationalist about it all
Next one is on today I think
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
UK has secured supply of the vaccine which is to be made in Scotland up until 2025.
Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually
Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Even if not makes sense to start planning now as if it will be needed. Last thing we need is to get over this, have a few months of 'normal' and then be back to square one again.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Not sure if I heard right that 20% of care home assistants have passed on getting the vaccine. Strange
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Not at all surprised. They’ll all be Karen’s on FB posting about fluoride in drinking water and how were harming the immune system by wearing masks.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
That and / or production for the rest of the world is intended
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Or they're from ethnic minority groups who seem to be more vaccine sceptic than your average Karen. I am doing a project at the minute to get Remote Monitoring software into Care Homes and the commissioners suggested the above to me,
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Bit of detail
Covid-19: London care home staff share concerns over vaccine
A number of London care home workers say they are hesitant about receiving the Covid-19 vaccine.
www.bbc.co.uk
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yeah that too. Low income both BAME and white British have real anti-vax issues. And both large parts of care work workforce. Same in all low paid healthcare jobs from what I can tell.
The missus is always coming home with stories of the mental rumours she hears at UHCW from non-clinical staff.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
One of the other problems is that care home residents are being infected post vaccination, so the workers no doubt add two and two to make five, ignoring that the resident may have already been infected or been infected before the vaccine starts to take effect.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
I've not heard driving a minicab called "marketing" before
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
And that it's inevitable some will get infected, even after vaccinating.
If we can suppress it so it's not so lethal, and doesn't travel around the country so vigorously, it buys us time for anti-virals / better treatments anyway. That's surely the role of a vaccine as much as anything.
hill83
Well-Known Member
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
This thought crossed my mind but it would be a civil liberties minefield
hill83
Well-Known Member
Its a job. Feel free to not take it and not have the job.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Rather than fire them, make it simply no jab, no shifts for resident safety purposes. Want your shifts get the jab
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
I agree.
Now, my parents have just come back from Stoneliehg. Said it was pretty empty, and well organised.
My Mum however, slightly excitable, is already talking about having me over for a cup of tea, and reducing distances in the future, and not wearing masks. She's not talking instantly (they communicated at the centre that this is all a bad idea!) but she's missing that actually, she could become a risk to me and Mrs Wisdom! It's not surprising really as she's never really grasped that I won't go in the house, not because I think she's a threat, but because I might be a risk to her.
Despite this, they've complied with just about everything, barely been out but... if she's talking this way, she won't be alone.
And then public opinion makes us open up before we're ready.
Fuckssake Boris, listen to the medical advisors on this, don't fall under your populist tendencies just when we need to be strong for the home run...