Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (81 Viewers)

[skybluetony176]

The gyms quiet. Only 3 of us here. Not even any fanny to look at.

No mirrors

 

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[skybluetony176]

I was ill as fuck before Christmas off work for a week with the flu, i had every symptom of the Corona virus so im sure it was going round before then

No chance it was just seasonal flu?

 

[shmmeee]

Well the alternative is to be a bed better.

Im trying to be the best bed I can dammit!

 

[fernandopartridge]

My wife knew co-workers and customers who had a bug around Christmas which she is now convinced was this virus due to the similarity of the symptoms they experienced. A few ended up in A and E with respistory issues.

My sister's symptoms were similar and she was tested for just about everything multiple times. I'm not sure if they tested for this virus or not but think it would be odd if they hadn't, especially given that Leicester is one of the main hospitals carrying out these tests and they had lots off microbiologist opinion on it. She died in 29 January but had been ill really since Christmas.

 

[The coventrian]

No chance it was just seasonal flu?

Damn spelling lol

 

[djr8369]

My sister's symptoms were similar and she was tested for just about everything multiple times. I'm not sure if they tested for this virus or not but think it would be odd if they hadn't, especially given that Leicester is one of the main hospitals carrying out these tests and they had lots off microbiologist opinion on it. She died in 29 January but had been ill really since Christmas.

Really sorry to hear that.

 

[mark82]

So why won't you answer one simple question?

What does a lowering of the curve look like?

The curve won't lower as the deaths are cumulative, it will flatten off. It's logarithmic, so the scale is bigger at the top end and will be harder to see if it's levelling off at high numbers on a logarithmic graph.

I find this site useful for raw data. Also has some graphs at individual country level which you can view as either logarithmic or linear.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 230,030 Cases and 9,386 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[mark82]

I was ill as fuck before Christmas off work for a week with the flu, i had every symptom of the Corona virus so im sure it was going round before then

Unless you've been in China I highly doubt it.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Only if you don't understand it, but I think the graph topic has been done now.

THe conclusions are clear:

1. You thought the govt was right and herd immunity was a brilliant idea= graph is shit, I don't like it, I can't read it, I don't understand it wah wah
2. Everyone else= its just a graph, can be useful if you 'get' it, if not then whatever, its just a graph.

Can we stop with this herd immunity misinformation. It’s still a part of the wider plan (as it was) and has got to be, until a vaccine is found, but the government/advisors were talking about flattening the curve/peak for weeks in conjunction with it.

I attached the fact check in relation to misinformation previously about Johnsons saying ‘lets take it on the chin’ in an interview with Schofield on 5 March (which indicates the position on this was to flatten the curve)

Here is the transcript of what Boris Johnson said on This Morning about the new coronavirus

The ‘change’ was the acceleration/escalation of the measures which were always planned depending on where we were on the curve. We had to jump from about a 2 to a 7 (out of 10) pretty much overnight due to the remodelling, increased spread and anticipated need for NHS/critical care.

We are now pretty much implementing the same methods as everyone else even though we are still a bit behind on numbers (reason for us being behind was, at least partially, to how we dealt with the virus at the outbreak - trace and track, self isolate and don’t go to doctors - call 111), to minimise the strain on the NHS. The plan, I guess, was to have gone through these levels more gradually and in a controlled way. Which when you see the impact of them now, you can surely understand why.

I agree that better/regular testing would’ve maybe spotted the increase on the curve/spike a bit sooner but to suggest these measures weren’t always on the table/likely because of the ‘herd immunity’ theory is incorrect

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

I was ill as fuck before Christmas off work for a week with the flu, i had every symptom of the Corona virus so im sure it was going round before then

There are a few theories suggesting that China had delayed news of the outbreak and that it's likely that the Coronavirus could have first cropped up around October time - two months prior to when China first announced the outbreak.

 

[shmmeee]

Can we stop with this herd immunity misinformation. It’s still a part of the wider plan (as it was) and has got to be, until a vaccine is found, but the government/advisors were talking about flattening the curve/peak for weeks in conjunction with it.

I attached the fact check in relation to misinformation previously about Johnsons saying ‘lets take it on the chin’ in an interview with Schofield on 5 March (which indicates the position on this was to flatten the curve)

Here is the transcript of what Boris Johnson said on This Morning about the new coronavirus

The ‘change’ was the acceleration/escalation of the measures which were always planned depending on where we were on the curve. We had to jump from about a 2 to a 7 (out of 10) pretty much overnight due to the remodelling, increased spread and anticipated need for NHS/critical care.

We are now pretty much implementing the same methods as everyone else even though we are still a bit behind on numbers (reason for us being behind was at least partially to how we dealt with the virus at the outbreak - trace and track, self isolate and don’t go to doctors - call 111), to minimise the strain on the NHS. The plan, I guess, was we could’ve gone through these levels more gradually and in a controlled way.

I agree that better/regular testing would’ve maybe spotted the increase on the curve/spike a bit sooner but to suggest these measures weren’t always in the table/likely because of the ‘herd immunity’ theory is incorrect

Problem is Steve multiple sources have confirmed that we changed plans.

 

[Brylowes]

I have asthma couple months back I was down the walk in 3 times with a bad cough I could not clear antibiotics didn’t clear either did steroid tablets they said it was bronchitis but they wasn’t exactly sure made me wonder was it this virus we just don’t know like you say many would of had it and not known

I had similar in late January, never felt so ill my chest cavity was aching and felt like It was
full of concrete, hours on end of constant dry coughing, high fever for two nights when at
my worst I was actually hallucinating.
Towards the end of the second course of antibiotics it eventually started to loosen and break
down, my wife was ill with the same thing but less severe ‘but she’s ten years younger than
Me 18 y/o son and 8y/o daughter we’re fine.

 

[shmmeee]

Guys. You didn’t have coronavirus last year. If you did we’d currently be in the middle of a mass outbreak as opposed to the start. One person restarted the outbreak in Korea, similarly our good tracking suppressed the first outbreak here. You weren’t running around Cov with coronavirus believe me, it genuinely was man flu.

 

[djr8369]

The curve won't lower as the deaths are cumulative, it will flatten off. It's logarithmic, so the scale is bigger at the top end and will be harder to see if it's levelling off at high numbers on a logarithmic graph.

I find this site useful for raw data. Also has some graphs at individual country level which you can view as either logarithmic or linear.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 230,030 Cases and 9,386 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Ironically it was me posting the graphs from that site a week ago that started the first argument about graphs.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I find this site useful for raw data. Also has some graphs at individual country level which you can view as either logarithmic or linear.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 230,030 Cases and 9,386 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Yes, far more useful, been checking it myself.

 

[David O'Day]

Sorry but you really have missed the point of the chart.

I'm sure everyone else is fed up of hearing the arguments about scales so I will keep posting the updates but won't respond to any more queries/arguments about the scale

No because it's a skewed information source. The point is show the authors preconceived conclusion.

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[ccfc1234]

So how do you think we should have gine about it?

Total lockdown before anyone caught the virus?[/QUOTE]

Yes a total lockdown as soon as China was symptomatic. Ground all flights unless it's for people being repatriated and quarantined. It would have stopped this virus spreading at source. It would have damaged the global economy but people would have been able to be productive to an extent within their own country. Let's face it the economy has been trashed anyway but rather than one hit it's been 1000 lashes.

 

[David O'Day]

David, let's look at my name on here for the past 6 years and use that as a clue to where I am. Now Saudi Arabia is on total lockdown. That's means no international flights in or out David.
Finally my work place has said that there is no work so stay at home. I can't leave the country and I can't work. Just how exciting is that for me to make up?
You seem like an intelligent chap(stop sniggering at the back)

Cool, what does that have to do with flights in Europe?

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[Tommo1993]

Can I be cryogenically frozen until all this has buggered off?

 

[shmmeee]

You can’t compare country by country without a logarithmic scale, the differences are too big, you’d only be able to make out China and Italy.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

The gyms quiet. Only 3 of us here. Not even any fanny to look at.

Which ??

 

[mark82]

My sister's symptoms were similar and she was tested for just about everything multiple times. I'm not sure if they tested for this virus or not but think it would be odd if they hadn't, especially given that Leicester is one of the main hospitals carrying out these tests and they had lots off microbiologist opinion on it. She died in 29 January but had been ill really since Christmas.

Really sorry to hear about that.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

My ex’s union are saying full pay.

Right, at least that’s something

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

You can’t compare country by country without a logarithmic scale, the differences are too big, you’d only be able to make out China and Italy.

Yep I absolutely get that part of course.

 

[David O'Day]

Ah OK Mr keyboard warrior.

Why not explain where we have gine wrong?

Why not explain what a downwards curve is? After all that is the use if a graph.

But no. You hide behind a keyboard and try to be a bully. Well done.

Ignore him, he's a born fantasist. I would be surprised that instead of living Irdland he is Nigel from Camp Hill.

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[CCFCSteve]

Problem is Steve multiple sources have confirmed that we changed plans.

Yes and U turn but listen back to the interviews (or even just the one on the 5 March), how do you flatten the peak/curve without these measures ?

Unfortunately there are plenty of *people who just want to be proved right rather than just looking at the facts and dealing with what’s happening now

* I’m not talking about people on this site, I’m talking about the professionals !

 

[mark82]

There are a few theories suggesting that China had delayed news of the outbreak and that it's likely that the Coronavirus could have first cropped up around October time - two months prior to when China first announced the outbreak.

It's pretty certain they covered this up for some time. October/November is not unreasonable as a start date in China (and many probably had it before anyone even realised it wasn't a standard flu type virus).

 

[shmmeee]

Yep I absolutely get that part of course.

The use here is also seeing is a countries deaths/cases are growing exponentially. If they are it’s a straight line on the graph, hence the “flattening” you see shows that Italy while still increasing at a hell of a pace is no longer increasing exponentially.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Finally, we also are where we are. We are currently in a situation where people are ignoring government advice; going to pubs, socialising, panic buying etc which I believe will ultimately lead to a lock down. Do I think the government planned or want a lock down, no, but they are probably going to have to use it as a measure

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Finally, we also are where we are. We are currently in a situation where people are ignoring government advice; going to pubs, socialising, panic buying etc which I believe will ultimately lead to a lock down. Do I think the government planned or want a lock down, no, but they are probably going to have to use it as a measure

As long as they keep making me go in I will go to the pub and restaurants. Frankly I’m mixing with more people in school

 

[shmmeee]

Yes and U turn but listen back to the interviews (or even just the one on the 5 March), how do you flatten the peak/curve without these measures ?

Unfortunately there are plenty of *people who just want to be proved right rather than just looking at the facts and dealing with what’s happening now

* I’m not talking about people on this site, I’m talking about the professionals !

The flatten the curve thing has been confusing. We were never going to do absolutely nothing. From what I can gather, the original plan was to cocoon the vulnerable and hope the rest wouldn’t topple the NHS. Personally I’d have thought even fag packet maths shows that’d destroy the NHS, but regardless it seems the Imperial paper provided some numbers that changed minds to a stronger suppression.

I suspect two or three things at play:

Boris is a liberal and would personally hate to have to have troops on the streets keeping people in their homes. I worry this is still stopping him from taking the steps necessary

Cummings likes “clever” ideas that imply he’s smart and everyone else is stupid which lead to us not going in the obvious direction of suppression.

There’s a Tory mindset about the economy that means that shutting it down is seen as impossible, you see it in this thread. Just incapable of comprehending the scale of the situation and an assumption there must be some way to do it without economic damage. That was naive.

The final fuck up for me has been the communication that’s meant people have genuinely thought herd immunity or let her rip we’re policy and others thinking the current instructions are just friendly advice they don’t have to follow if they don’t want. That’s absolutely criminal in a crisis and for me shows this administration simply isn’t up to the job of running the country. But they’re who we’ve got so I’ll park that one until it’s all over. They still need to sort it out though, communication and trust are absolutely key to their new plan.

 

[shmmeee]

As long as they keep making me go in I will go to the pub and restaurants. Frankly I’m mixing with more people in school

Dont be a dick.

 

[The coventrian]

As long as they keep making me go in I will go to the pub and restaurants. Frankly I’m mixing with more people in school

Same as me. I work in a factory with hundreds of others. Its ridiculous.

 

[clint van damme]

My sister's symptoms were similar and she was tested for just about everything multiple times. I'm not sure if they tested for this virus or not but think it would be odd if they hadn't, especially given that Leicester is one of the main hospitals carrying out these tests and they had lots off microbiologist opinion on it. She died in 29 January but had been ill really since Christmas.

Perhaps there was a bug with similar symptoms going around. As Shmmeee said we'd probably be in the middle of the epidemic if it had been here at Christmas.

Either way my heart goes out to you and your family. Life really is very fragile.

 

[David O'Day]

Yes and U turn but listen back to the interviews (or even just the one on the 5 March), how do you flatten the peak/curve without these measures ?

Unfortunately there are plenty of *people who just want to be proved right rather than just looking at the facts and dealing with what’s happening now

* I’m not talking about people on this site, I’m talking about the professionals !

No one has said they have u turned from inside the department of health. They always said they would intervene but only at what they saw as the best ultima to do so. The interviews are still online but sadly weirdos like smeee and ring sting have to be seen to be correct.

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