Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (17 Viewers)

shmmeee · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
The road map is bassed on the assumptions in these papers. So they did not model for this ? So yes the models are wrong if they did not model for being ahead.

Why has the road map not been speed up then ?

Why are the same people involved in the models saying we need to slow down the reopening ?

You clearly don’t understand the purpose of models. All the assumptions are clearly stated in the paper.

And the people involved aren’t saying that, he’s Neil Ferguson two days ago:

Professor Ferguson said: "The roadmap is robust to a certain level of increase in transmissibility of the virus and a certain level of immune escape.

"If it goes beyond those levels we may need to reconsider rate of reopening and maybe slow the next step.

"A scenario where a variant is 60% more transmissible and has a significant degree of immune escape could lead to another third wave the size the UK has just come out of. But if the level of transmissibility increase is only 20% or 30% and has only marginal evasion of immunity, then the third wave is predicted to be much smaller and therefore manageable."

Nowhere does he say the roadmap should be slowed down, he’s explaining the current unknowns that could impact the roadmap.

Every model has uncertainty in it, the modellers job is to express that uncertainty and be clear what is and isn’t modelled. It’s up to the user to determine how to act on that information.

I get you want out of this, we all do. But attacking the people giving us data isn’t going to help.

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

shmmeee said:
You clearly don’t understand the purpose of models. All the assumptions are clearly stated in the paper.

And the people involved aren’t saying that, he’s Neil Ferguson two days ago:

Professor Ferguson said: "The roadmap is robust to a certain level of increase in transmissibility of the virus and a certain level of immune escape.

"If it goes beyond those levels we may need to reconsider rate of reopening and maybe slow the next step.

"A scenario where a variant is 60% more transmissible and has a significant degree of immune escape could lead to another third wave the size the UK has just come out of. But if the level of transmissibility increase is only 20% or 30% and has only marginal evasion of immunity, then the third wave is predicted to be much smaller and therefore manageable."

Nowhere does he say the roadmap should be slowed down, he’s explaining the current unknowns that could impact the roadmap.

Every model has uncertainty in it, the modellers job is to express that uncertainty and be clear what is and isn’t modelled. It’s up to the user to determine how to act on that information.

I get you want out of this, we all do. But attacking the people giving us data isn’t going to help.

He said yesterday that it now hangs in the balance. Yet the data is still better than he predicted.

Attacking.... Lol Neil cant even stick to lockdown rules as wanted a bit of action. He has history of being massively wrong.

chiefdave · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
He said yesterday that it now hangs in the balance.

Surely that's correct, just look at the numbers? A few weeks ago we were told not to worry about this variant as we'd have no problem just tracking and tracing every case and keeping it under control, no need to close the borders. Now its rising and rising fast and is by far the dominant strain in the UK.

Two days ago we reports over 3K cases for the first time since 12th April, today we're over 4K cases for the first time since 1st April. Hospitalisations are also creeping up.

This is the same pattern we've seen in the past so why on earth would anyone say we're absolutely going ahead with opening up no matter what? Just common sense.

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

chiefdave said:
Surely that's correct, just look at the numbers? A few weeks ago we were told not to worry about this variant as we'd have no problem just tracking and tracing every case and keeping it under control, no need to close the borders. Now its rising and rising fast and is by far the dominant strain in the UK.

Two days ago we reports over 3K cases for the first time since 12th April, today we're over 4K cases for the first time since 1st April. Hospitalisations are also creeping up.

This is the same pattern we've seen in the past so why on earth would anyone say we're absolutely going ahead with opening up no matter what? Just common sense.

Cases are irrelevant. Data needs to be based on patients admitted to hospital and in ICU. Hospitalisation went up over a couple of days but has dropped again.

We have vaccinated nearly 39m people with one jab ad nearly 25m with two.

We cant keep everyone locked up forever.

fernandopartridge · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
The road map is bassed on the assumptions in these papers. So they did not model for this ? So yes the models are wrong if they did not model for being ahead.

Why has the road map not been speed up then ?

Why are the same people involved in the models saying we need to slow down the reopening ?

No it isn't

fernandopartridge · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
Cases are irrelevant. Data needs to be based on patients admitted to hospital and in ICU. Hospitalisation went up over a couple of days but has dropped again.

We have vaccinated nearly 39m people with one jab ad nearly 25m with two.

We cant keep everyone locked up forever.

I understand the point you're making but cases are not irrelevant, they are less relevant but still an indicator. If once upon a time the proportion of hospitalisations to cases was say 1:5, it might be 1:15 now on the whole but still represents a big number of potential hospitalisations,

For some reason people have thought that because the NHS 'coped' with 34k people in January that it should do it again. Ignoring the huge downstream problems.

PVA · May 28, 2021

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
You two should meet up and take each others virginities.

Good one. With wit like that I can only assume you haven't actually lost your virginity.

But anyway how can we if THE WURLD IS GONNA B SHUT DOWN 4EVA!!!

fernandopartridge · May 28, 2021

There is no denying these numbers are going in the wrong direction, especially as hospitalisations lag cases and deaths lag those. Let's just hope it's a bump in the road and the vaccines stop it becoming wave 3:

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

fernandopartridge said:
I understand the point you're making but cases are not irrelevant, they are less relevant but still an indicator. If once upon a time the proportion of hospitalisations to cases was say 1:5, it might be 1:15 now on the whole but still represents a big number of potential hospitalisations,

For some reason people have thought that because the NHS 'coped' with 34k people in January that it should do it again. Ignoring the huge downstream problems.

During the Peak we now know untested people sent to care home what created major issues for the NHS. On top of this a huge number of people who died caught Covid in hospital.

Cases are only a good indication if they are in a group who are likely to get seriously ill from it. If its cases from younger people who are not ending up in hospital its not a good indication of what's going on.

The vaccine breaks the link between cases and hospitalisation. So cases become less relevant with every jab

chiefdave · May 28, 2021

Everything is trending in the wrong direction and we've seen time and time again how quickly this can get out of hand.

Staggering to me that people are still saying ignore the experts and just go for it and hope for the best.

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

fernandopartridge said:
There is no denying these numbers are going in the wrong direction, especially as hospitalisations lag cases and deaths lag those. Let's just hope it's a bump in the road and the vaccines stop it becoming wave 3:

View attachment 20292

You can see Patients has actually now dropped

clint van damme · May 28, 2021

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
You two should meet up and take each others virginities.

Don't think I've ever seen virginity expressed as a plural before, looks weird

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

chiefdave said:
Everything is trending in the wrong direction and we've seen time and time again how quickly this can get out of hand.

Staggering to me that people are still saying ignore the experts and just go for it and hope for the best.

Explain what's happening in Texas and Florida for example. Fully open yet data has dropped ?

Look at the data for India. Looks like they have peaked

Also things clearly not all going in the wrong direction

David O'Day · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
You can see Patients has actually now droppedView attachment 20293

You are seemingly not understanding the term "lag"?

If the current increase in cases does mean an increase in hospitalisations it's not yet going to be showing in the current hospitalisations.

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · May 28, 2021

chiefdave said:
Everything is trending in the wrong direction and we've seen time and time again how quickly this can get out of hand.

Staggering to me that people are still saying ignore the experts and just go for it and hope for the best.

What percentage of vulnerable people have been vaccinated in the UK now?

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

David O'Day said:
You are seemingly not understanding the term "lag"?

If the current increase in cases does mean an increase in hospitalisations it's not yet going to be showing in the current hospitalisations.

We can only go on the data given. Fernando showed the dashboard what shows an uptick this isn't true now.

Since the Indian has been around the last few weeks. hospitalisations have dropped.

Your basing your assumptions that hospitalisations have gone up. yet have no data for that.

hill83 · May 28, 2021

Fucking hell lads. Groundhog year.

Anyone else looking forward to our first season back in the Championship?

chiefdave · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
xplain what's happening in Texas and Florida for example. Fully open yet data has dropped ?

The dominant strain there is the UK variant. Our plans for opening were based on that being the dominant strain here, rememberer we didn't have to worry about the Indian variant as the government had that all under control. We now have high rates of the Indian variant, they don't. But they are worried about it and there has been talk about the potential need to re-introduce restrictions over there.

jordan210 said:
Also things clearly not all going in the wrong direction

Case numbers have increased 24% in the last week, hospitalisations have increased 25.2% and deaths have increased 38.1%. How is that not going in the wrong direction?

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
What percentage of vulnerable people have been vaccinated in the UK now?

Not sure that data is available is it? But vaccines aren't 100% so therefore if there is a more transmissible variant in circulation that becomes an issue. As you see with the modelling one of the key things that we need to establish is how much more transmissible it is.

PVA · May 28, 2021

chiefdave said:
Everything is trending in the wrong direction and we've seen time and time again how quickly this can get out of hand.

Staggering to me that people are still saying ignore the experts and just go for it and hope for the best.

This!

It's amazing that some blokes on a football forum think they have a better grasp of the situation than SAGE and the experts.

The media coverage is perfectly acceptable. As far as I can see all stories say 'IF xyz happens then the June 21st date might have to be pushed back'. If people think that's scare tactics then that's their problem not the media's.

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

chiefdave said:
The dominant strain there is the UK variant. Our plans for opening were based on that being the dominant strain here, rememberer we didn't have to worry about the Indian variant as the government had that all under control. We now have high rates of the Indian variant, they don't. But they are worried about it and there has been talk about the potential need to re-introduce restrictions over there.

Case numbers have increased 24% in the last week, hospitalisations have increased 25.2% and deaths have increased 38.1%. How is that not going in the wrong direction?

Both sates have high vaccine rate. So as the Indian strain does not evade it as we know it doesn't. They will not close down.

Hospitalisation have dropped back down.looking at the current data available.

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

PVA said:
This!

It's amazing that some blokes on a football forum think they have a better grasp of the situation than SAGE and the experts.

The media coverage is perfectly acceptable. As far as I can see all stories say 'IF xyz happens then the June 21st date might have to be pushed back'. If people think that's scare tactics then that's their problem not the media's.

The press have been embarrassing. Constant scare stories. They use the same "experts" who surround them self with people with the same views as them. Take Indi sage. One of the people who constantly is given air time. Was trying to argue and disprove a scientist on twitter.

The scientist works for Moderna on the vaccine.

This book is apparently a great read.

Amazon product ASIN B08ZSYN14J

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · May 28, 2021

chiefdave said:
The dominant strain there is the UK variant. Our plans for opening were based on that being the dominant strain here, rememberer we didn't have to worry about the Indian variant as the government had that all under control. We now have high rates of the Indian variant, they don't. But they are worried about it and there has been talk about the potential need to re-introduce restrictions over there.

Case numbers have increased 24% in the last week, hospitalisations have increased 25.2% and deaths have increased 38.1%. How is that not going in the wrong direction?

Not sure that data is available is it? But vaccines aren't 100% so therefore if there is a more transmissible variant in circulation that becomes an issue. As you see with the modelling one of the key things that we need to establish is how much more transmissible it is.

The vaccine either works or it doesn't. I'm not talking about the difference between 99% and 100%, I'm talking generally.

The most vulnerable in society have now been pretty much covered as from what I've just seen, 46% of the population have had both jabs.

It can be debated when or not is the right time to learn to live with it, but we aren't going to get much better than we are now.

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · May 28, 2021

PVA said:
This!

It's amazing that some blokes on a football forum think they have a better grasp of the situation than SAGE and the experts.

The media coverage is perfectly acceptable. As far as I can see all stories say 'IF xyz happens then the June 21st date might have to be pushed back'. If people think that's scare tactics then that's their problem not the media's.

99% of the people that have died from it fall into certain categories, those categories have both received both vaccinations.

The media coverage is perfectly acceptable? You are either a troll or just completely thick.

hill83 · May 28, 2021

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
99% of the people that have died from it fall into certain categories, those categories have both received both vaccinations.

The media coverage is perfectly acceptable? You are either a troll or just completely thick.

It does depend where you get your news from tbf. The Daily Mail is an absolute joke from all accounts but I don't read it.
The Guardian (Left wing lol etc) is balanced on it and I do read that.

Guardian

Daily Mail

PVA · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
The press have been embarrassing. Constant scare stories. They use the same "experts" who surround them self with people with the same views as them. Take Indi sage. One of the people who constantly is given air time. Was trying to argue and disprove a scientist on twitter.

The scientist works for Moderna on the vaccine.

This book is apparently a great read.

Amazon product ASIN B08ZSYN14J

Her timeline is full of anti lockdown nutters like Toby Young and Adam Brooks, can't imagine her book is very enlightening or well balanced.

PVA · May 28, 2021

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
99% of the people that have died from it fall into certain categories, those categories have both received both vaccinations.

The media coverage is perfectly acceptable? You are either a troll or just completely thick.

Can you provide some examples of coverage that you find unacceptable?

jordan210 · May 28, 2021

Anyway enjoy your bank holiday boys. Get your vaccine booked and lets kick covid

Grendel · May 28, 2021

chiefdave said:
Everything is trending in the wrong direction and we've seen time and time again how quickly this can get out of hand.

Staggering to me that people are still saying ignore the experts and just go for it and hope for the best.

How can it get out of hand when the vast majority of the vulnerable population are being vaccinated and nearly 4 out of 10 adults (95% of the categories likely to be severely ill) have had two jabs - far more than any other country in Europe?

SBAndy · May 28, 2021

Why are we arguing again about what may or may not happen in 3 and a bit weeks’ time? Plenty of data-gathering time there!

clint van damme · May 28, 2021

SBAndy said:
Why are we arguing again

You new to this forum?!

David O'Day · May 28, 2021

jordan210 said:
We can only go on the data given. Fernando showed the dashboard what shows an uptick this isn't true now.

Since the Indian has been around the last few weeks. hospitalisations have dropped.

Your basing your assumptions that hospitalisations have gone up. yet have no data for that.

Once again you fail to understand what a lag is.

The past data shows that the increase in hospitalisations before came about 2 weeks after the increase in cases started so thusly the will not appear in the date now will they so it is not what is the hospitalisation rate now it is what will it potentially be in a few weeks.

Hospitalisations have not dropped, they have bobbed about and stayed roughly the same as well.

David O'Day · May 28, 2021

hill83 said:
Fucking hell lads. Groundhog year.

Anyone else looking forward to our first season back in the Championship?

Depends if we sack Robins first

Sick Boy · May 28, 2021

Anyone over 16 can get vaccinated here from 3rd June.

skybluetony176 · May 28, 2021

Sick Boy said:
Anyone over 16 can get vaccinated here from 3rd June.

Yeah but would you rather live in Italy.

Grendel · May 28, 2021

Sick Boy said:
Anyone over 16 can get vaccinated here from 3rd June.

Is there a huge rejection of take up in Italy?

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