Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (16 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

Hmmm...

A few things to clarify the science here - it took me about ten minutes to find these out, so I remain entirely unconvinced that repeating stuff unchecked is in any way smart:

Is there evidence that Omicron can re-infect people who have already had Covid?

Yes.

expert reaction to preprint looking at risk of reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa | Science Media Centre

www.sciencemediacentre.org

Do viruses always mutate to become less deadly?

No. (This is a dangerous myth entirely without evidence and anyone who repeats it needs their head checking)

Fact check: Yes, viruses can mutate to become more deadly

A viral tweet shared online falsely claims viruses never mutate to become more lethal.

www.usatoday.com

See also Spanish flu...

Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic Was So Deadly | HISTORY

The first strain of the Spanish Flu wasn’t particularly deadly. Then it came back in the fall with a vengeance.

www.history.com

How many cases of Omicron?

Tricky! That 200,000 number wasn't just pulled out of the air though, there's some logic behind it...

How big is the risk of Omicron in the UK and how do we know?

Analysis: Sajid Javid estimates there are 200,000 new cases a day – here’s why the experts suggest that number will soon multiply

www.theguardian.com

The key point is, even if the true number infected is much smaller than that, if it's doubling every two or even three days, then it's going to get much bigger very quickly.

If there was only one person infected on 14th December, and it doubled every three days, then by the end of January there would be 65,000 new infections on that day alone. Three days later, 130,000 new infections, and so on.

Will it burn itself out?

Eventually. But it might not be pretty if we don't slow it down a bit.



I wouldn't pretend for a second to know all of the facts. However, given what we do seem to know already, doing nothing on the basis that it might be milder, or we should wait to see the impacts, or even that the Government are blagging the figures just to protect Boris, just doesn't look sensible to me.

one point about the Spanish Flu. There is an argument hinted at by some studies that the 1st and 2nd waves of the pandemic where actually 2 different viruses

Study suggests 1918 flu waves were caused by 'distinct' viruses

www.cidrap.umn.edu

 

---

[duffer]

You've surely got to start questioning why this government is causing all this panic when the country that experienced it first, and had a hell of a case spike, is just carrying on regardless?

Politely, it's not just this government. Here's the European CDC take on it (VOC = Variant of Concern):

"Although current data on the severity of the infection associated with the Omicron VOC remain limited, evidence to date raises concern that the Omicron VOC may be associated with a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Even in the case of lower infection/disease severity with the Omicron VOC, a steep, exponential increase in cases caused by the Omicron VOC will result in a growing number of cases with severe disease. As EU/EEA countries are still facing the severe impact of the Delta VOC wave, a further rise in hospitalisations could quickly overwhelm healthcare systems. We therefore assess the impact of the spread of the Omicron VOC as VERY HIGH. "

Assessment of the further emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC in the context of the ongoing Delta VOC transmission in the EU/EEA, 18th update

The risk to public health posed by the spread of the Omicron VOC in the context of ongoing Delta VOC transmission in the EU/EEA is assessed in this update.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

And again, I'm not sure panic is quite the right word. I still haven't heard the air raid sirens, and most people seem to be going about their business in a fairly normal way. Except Stoke players, the bastards.

 

[CCFCSteve]

[

Do we know how many tests were carried out before Omicron (e.g. mid-November)?

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

Mid/late Nov anywhere between 800k to 1m(ish). Changes daily. Since start of Dec around 1.1m, moving to 1.3m. There is no doubt it’s rife. I’d imagine with the high proportion of people double vaccinated/boosted loads of people are walking around with it without knowing as well

 

[Nick]

This is one to watch I guess

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[duffer]

one point about the Spanish Flu. There is an argument hinted at by some studies that the 1st and 2nd waves of the pandemic where actually 2 different viruses

Study suggests 1918 flu waves were caused by 'distinct' viruses

www.cidrap.umn.edu

Interesting read that, thanks, although there are conflicting opinions even there. I think what's clear though, is that viruses certainly do not always mutate to become less virulent.

Blimey, if you follow Cov long enough, not only do you become better at forensic accountancy and law, but you also have to brush up on virology. Where will it end.

 

[David O'Day]

Interesting read that, thanks, although there are conflicting opinions even there. I think what's clear though, is that viruses certainly do not always mutate to become less virulent.

Blimey, if you follow Cov long enough, not only do you become better at forensic accountancy and law, but you also have to brush up on virology. Where will it end.

I guess the issue with knowing 100% what caused the Spanish Flu is that we didn't isolate the flu until the 30s

Anyway i digress

 

[duffer]

Even though the headlines are massive, it's still just below 5%

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

Absolutely. And I'll bet out of that 5% most of them are just feckless malingerers pretending to have a cough.

And even though on it's own 5% is an utterly meaningless statistic, I think it completely proves that it's blindingly obvious that that the press are just making stuff up to scare people into doing something completely unreasonable. Like getting vaccinated or wearing a mask a bit more. It's appalling.

 

[duffer]

I guess the issue with knowing 100% what caused the Spanish Flu is that we didn't isolate the flu until the 30s

Anyway i digress

Only slightly. But please keep posting up the science at least, seeing things casually parachuted in from twitter etc. and posited as 'fact', really is damaging my health.

 

[skybluegod]

Think a lot of people are underestimating this wave still. Obviously hospitalisations, typically follow a 7-10 days after positive cases, I expect a massive increase next week.

The thing distorting figures is that deaths obviously lag even further so then dropping by 6% week on week may lull some people into a false sense of security, but that just lines up with the dip in cases at end of November. Still a long road ahead I imagine

It's a right pain in the arse at work as well! We had only just started to relax restrictions (as in no longer having to do daily testing to come in). Now it's back to full on lockdown whilst on unit basically.

 

[jordan210]

Some of you might find this interesting. New estimate for cases. So the million cases was BS

 

[David O'Day]

Some of you might find this interesting. New estimate for cases. So the million cases was BS

View attachment 23169

That clearly says that because of steps taken the estimate based on the doubling time if they didn't take steps is no longer valid as we have in fact taken steps.

 

[jordan210]

That clearly says that because of steps taken the estimate based on the doubling time if they didn't take steps is no longer valid as we have in fact taken steps.

it says due to behaviour changes. Nothing has changed that drastically in 3 days

 

[skybluegod]

Some of you might find this interesting. New estimate for cases. So the million cases was BS

View attachment 23169

That is only showing Omicron? The million cases figure also included delta cases. And wasn't the million a day by the end of December? The screenshot you have shared is only taking us to the 13th right?

 

[Blind-Faith]

Welsh government closing nightclubs the day after Boxing Day. What’s the point? That’s 10 days away, gives the virus another 10 days to go through the country. If your going to close places surely you have to close them now??

 

[Sbarcher]

My wife works in a hospital. Most in ICU are covid sufferers. It “amuses” the ICU staff how the vaccine refusers are only too happy to accept whatever treatment is offered.

 

[duffer]

it says due to behaviour changes. Nothing has changed that drastically in 3 days

Actually, it has. Go and Google the impact on the numbers on public transport since the work from home directive was announced.

Then see if you can dig out the stats on the number of cancelled bookings in the hospitality sector in the same period.

What you'll see is that behaviour has already changed, and therefore the modellers have quite honestly said that the assumptions used no longer apply.

You've then called BS on it, which is really odd because they're basically saying, quite openly, 'we can't be certain'.

This kind of thing, along with your repeating the myth about viruses always becoming less virulent, makes me wonder if you're really looking at this with a genuinely critical eye, or whether you've already made your mind up that you're being lied to and you're scrabbling around for something to prove it.

 

[fernandopartridge]

My wife works in a hospital. Most in ICU are covid sufferers. It “amuses” the ICU staff how the vaccine refusers are only too happy to accept whatever treatment is offered.

Surprised it amuses them to be honest, I'd be sick of it by now.

 

[fernandopartridge]

it says due to behaviour changes. Nothing has changed that drastically in 3 days

Things had already started to change to be fair, Christmas parties cancelled etc. As it was in March 2020 people and businesses started to take action before any government announcement.

 

[Finham]

If this is actually confirmed as a lab leak rather than of natural origin, China should be levied some pretty big reparations.

That's it, it's war!:

 

[duffer]

Surprised it amuses them to be honest, I'd be sick of it by now.

Gallows humour, I guess.

Genuine question, when did vaccine resistance become a thing?

We've lived through an era when we've completely eradicated smallpox and massively reduced polio and TB. All through vaccination, with probably millions of lives saved.

We'd have made a massive dent in measles (another massively contagious and significantly harmful disease), if it hadn't been for a single discredited study blown up by the media. (That'll cheer Nick up).

Is the resistance down to something that I'm completely missing, or is it just the malign influence of social media (which is my, entirely unproven, non-evidenced, theory)?

 

[duffer]

Surprised it amuses them to be honest, I'd be sick of it by now.

I'd be putting deep-heat on their bed pans if I had to come in over Christmas because of it.

 

[Sbarcher]

Gallows humour, I guess.

Genuine question, when did vaccine resistance become a thing?

We've lived through an era when we've completely eradicated smallpox and massively reduced polio and TB. All through vaccination, with probably millions of lives saved.

We'd have made a massive dent in measles (another massively contagious and significantly harmful disease), if it hadn't been for a single discredited study blown up by the media. (That'll cheer Nick up).

Is the resistance down to something that I'm completely missing, or is it just the malign influence of social media (which is my, entirely unproven, non-evidenced, theory)?

Good point. How many refusers have prevented their children having vaccinations as they have grown up? Seems to be a badge of honour not to wear the badge.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Gallows humour, I guess.

Genuine question, when did vaccine resistance become a thing?

We've lived through an era when we've completely eradicated smallpox and massively reduced polio and TB. All through vaccination, with probably millions of lives saved.

We'd have made a massive dent in measles (another massively contagious and significantly harmful disease), if it hadn't been for a single discredited study blown up by the media. (That'll cheer Nick up).

Is the resistance down to something that I'm completely missing, or is it just the malign influence of social media (which is my, entirely unproven, non-evidenced, theory)?

According to Whitty most unvaccinated aren’t anti vax, just ‘haven’t got round to it’. They’ve had the best part of a year!

 

[chiefdave]

My wife works in a hospital. Most in ICU are covid sufferers. It “amuses” the ICU staff how the vaccine refusers are only too happy to accept whatever treatment is offered.

Do those who are genuinely against the vaccine rather than just haven't bothered accept hospital treatment and medication? Appreciate not a lot of their stance makes sense but if you won't take a vaccine as you don't know what's in it do they research every treatment offered to them or just trust what the medical professionals tell them?

 

[PVA]

A lot of them say their immune system will do the job and they don't need any treatment.

Then they get very ill and end up in hospital because they don't want to die and their beliefs, at least temporarily, go out of the window.

 

[Sbarcher]

Do those who are genuinely against the vaccine rather than just haven't bothered accept hospital treatment and medication? Appreciate not a lot of their stance makes sense but if you won't take a vaccine as you don't know what's in it do they research every treatment offered to them or just trust what the medical professionals tell them?

When in hospital no treatment is questioned. Not marching down the street with a placard when this happens!

 

[fernandopartridge]

Gallows humour, I guess.

Genuine question, when did vaccine resistance become a thing?

We've lived through an era when we've completely eradicated smallpox and massively reduced polio and TB. All through vaccination, with probably millions of lives saved.

We'd have made a massive dent in measles (another massively contagious and significantly harmful disease), if it hadn't been for a single discredited study blown up by the media. (That'll cheer Nick up).

Is the resistance down to something that I'm completely missing, or is it just the malign influence of social media (which is my, entirely unproven, non-evidenced, theory)?

The UK has really low levels of vaccine hesitancy to be fair. I think Andrew Wakefield caused a lot of grief but even despite that our take up rate is excellent.

I think the anti vax stuff is in the same nihilist bucket as brexit, the "politicians are all the same" and other things. All just signs of people who feel powerless but want to express power in some way

 

[Kieranp96]

Gallows humour, I guess.

Genuine question, when did vaccine resistance become a thing?

We've lived through an era when we've completely eradicated smallpox and massively reduced polio and TB. All through vaccination, with probably millions of lives saved.

We'd have made a massive dent in measles (another massively contagious and significantly harmful disease), if it hadn't been for a single discredited study blown up by the media. (That'll cheer Nick up).

Is the resistance down to something that I'm completely missing, or is it just the malign influence of social media (which is my, entirely unproven, non-evidenced, theory)?

Ebola? Hiv? The common influenza?

 

[Kieranp96]

The UK has really low levels of vaccine hesitancy to be fair. I think Andrew Wakefield caused a lot of grief but even despite that our take up rate is excellent.

I think the anti vax stuff is in the same nihilist bucket as brexit, the "politicians are all the same" and other things. All just signs of people who feel powerless but want to express power in some way

Agree our rates are alot better than other countrys but i still have mates well ex mates that have ditched me for taking the vaccine, the same idiots started comparing covid to cancer

 

[skybluegod]

I think the only reason I have heard from people that are still yet to get the vaccine that isn't anti-vax is that they are concerned by how quickly the vaccine was created, without the chance to understand long-term effects.

Obviously, despite the mountain of evidence against the need to worry, you can at least semi understand that view point.

The reality is that for most people this is going to become a regular vaccination probably every year.

 

[Nick]

Agree our rates are alot better than other countrys but i still have mates well ex mates that have ditched me for taking the vaccine, the same idiots started comparing covid to cancer

Really? That's extreme.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Things had already started to change to be fair, Christmas parties cancelled etc. As it was in March 2020 people and businesses started to take action before any government announcement.

Agree with this. Most people know how to self regulate, depending on their personal circumstances, especially after 18 months. People will point to the formal lockdowns having the effect but data has shown that the public had already started to reduce contacts, see people outside etc when necessary. Which I personally believe is how it should be (unless desperate times)

 

[CCFCSteve]

The UK has really low levels of vaccine hesitancy to be fair. I think Andrew Wakefield caused a lot of grief but even despite that our take up rate is excellent.

I think the anti vax stuff is in the same nihilist bucket as brexit, the "politicians are all the same" and other things. All just signs of people who feel powerless but want to express power in some way

This is true over the country as a whole but it is frightening in some locations still which Id imagine will end up being higher areas of transmission and hospitalisations (albeit maybe the ‘younger’ cities might get away with more severe illness). Checked Birmingham yesterday and was shocked, London is even worse

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Gallows humour, I guess.

Genuine question, when did vaccine resistance become a thing?

We've lived through an era when we've completely eradicated smallpox and massively reduced polio and TB. All through vaccination, with probably millions of lives saved.

We'd have made a massive dent in measles (another massively contagious and significantly harmful disease), if it hadn't been for a single discredited study blown up by the media. (That'll cheer Nick up).

Is the resistance down to something that I'm completely missing, or is it just the malign influence of social media (which is my, entirely unproven, non-evidenced, theory)?

The little god theory. We all think we know best

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I think the only reason I have heard from people that are still yet to get the vaccine that isn't anti-vax is that they are concerned by how quickly the vaccine was created, without the chance to understand long-term effects.

Obviously, despite the mountain of evidence against the need to worry, you can at least semi understand that view point.

The reality is that for most people this is going to become a regular vaccination probably every year.

Yep my sensible friends who’ve not had the vaccine are saying precisely this. And you can’t tell them the science or medical opinion as they are on the governments payroll