I don’t get what’s happening really. Did we lock down too early and fear it’s length too much? Or as I suspect have we flattened the peak to ensure our health services cope
If anything we locked down too late, we’ve had a similar curve to Italy compare that to countries that locked down earlier and have seen far far fewer deaths. In terms of managing healthcare capacity it seems to have been a success, if not in terms of limiting deaths.
There’s been two successful strategies so far, neither of which we followed: lockdown hard and early like NZ or contain the outbreak with track and trace and mass testing like SK.
The gamble is that those that locked down early will see a large second wave or extreme economic damage compared to those that didn’t. Well only know how true that is once we’ve run the numbers after it’s all over though.
And yes, as I understand it if we counted deaths outside hospitals we’d be above France and most other EU countries. But again really hard to tell for sure until the dust settles and we can look at overall excess deaths and normalise our some of the differences in reporting and methodologies for cause of death.