Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (44 Viewers)

skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

New Zealand showing the way Coronavirus 'currently eliminated' in New Zealand locked down before a single death had occurred, have kept overall cases in the thousands rather the the tens or hundreds of thousands and deaths in hundreds rather than the tens of thousands. They’re now going to get the economy moving again on a controlled level and before most economies in the world. Socialism wins again. No wonder it’s one of the happiest countries in the world. Go on Jacinda gal.

CCFCSteve · Apr 27, 2020

chiefdave said:
This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

I think thats what Witty and Vallance have been taking about as the likely more accurate indicator of the impact of Covid-19 (direct and indirect) in recent weeks, however, this would still need a bit of additional work/fine tuning

ps would still only be useful once the virus has been eliminated/under better control internationally though as I’d imagine some countries with relatively low initial contagion rates might well be hit harder in second/third waves (if they come).

David O'Day · Apr 27, 2020

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

Hate to say this but he's been right a lot.

The government have been woeful

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Nick · Apr 27, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
New Zealand showing the way Coronavirus 'currently eliminated' in New Zealand locked down before a single death had occurred, have kept overall cases in the thousands rather the the tens or hundreds of thousands and deaths in hundreds rather than the tens of thousands. They’re now going to get the economy moving again on a controlled level and before most economies in the world. Socialism wins again. No wonder it’s one of the happiest countries in the world. Go on Jacinda gal.

Probably would as well.

have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.

chiefdave · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?

Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.

There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.

Nick · Apr 27, 2020

chiefdave said:
Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.

There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.

Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?

This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.

skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Probably would as well.

have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.

They did to non residents back in March and even then anyone coming in had to go into quarantine for a period. We only just announced quarantine of people arriving into the country over the weekend if you want a comparison. Not even sure when it’s going to be implemented but you’re able to land in the UK show your passport and step straight onto public transport, go food shopping and return to work if you can’t work from home all on the same day.

Nick · Apr 27, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
They did to non residents back in March and even then anyone coming in had to go into quarantine for a period. We only just announced quarantine of people arriving into the country over the weekend if you want a comparison. Not even sure when it’s going to be implemented but you’re able to land in the UK show your passport and step straight onto public transport, go food shopping and return to work if you can’t work from home all on the same day.

Yep that makes sense, it has been pointless us all staying at home when somebody can fly in from somewhere that is riddled with it and just go and walk about the shops anyway.

David O'Day · Apr 27, 2020

chiefdave said:
Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.

There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.

They say it's only hospital deaths though. They are not trying to say it is all covid-19 related deaths. For the data they say it is it is 100 percent accurate. It's published and advertised as hospital deaths registered within a 24 hour period. It is not their fault people dead it as something else.

The expected deaths is not a great indicator either as there seems to be a lot of people such as those with mild heart attacks and strokes that are presenting at hospital later than they normally would and are now presenting too late at hospital.

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Nick · Apr 27, 2020

David O'Day said:
They say it's only hospital deaths though. They are not trying to say it is all covid-19 related deaths. For the data they say it is it is 100 percent accurate. It's published and advertised as hospital deaths registered within a 24 hour period. It is not their fault people dead it as something else.

The expected deaths is not a great indicator either as there seems to be a lot of people such as those with mild heart attacks and strokes that are presenting at hospital later than they normally would and are now presenting too late at hospital.

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That's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.

I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have

David O'Day · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?

This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.

Pretty much. Also not all out of hospital deaths listed as covid-19 will have been tested. Has anyone looked at the standard flu deaths and other respiratory illness deaths out of hospital to see if they have decreased which could indicate anything with a cough is being listed as covid-19?

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David O'Day · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
That's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.

I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have

Which is why they are now repeatedly telling people to go to hospital if needed

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chiefdave · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Probably would as well.

have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.

New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.

David O'Day · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
That's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.

I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have

Suicides is also a good point which would be interesting to see

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Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Apr 27, 2020

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

Piers Morgan IS a massive twat full stop. IMO he's been slightly less of a twat in the pandemic as he has actually questioned whether the response has been good enough and if mistakes have been made.

Yes, he's also gone down the scaremongering/sensationalism side as well, but as a tabloid journalist this shouldn't surprise anyone.

Nick · Apr 27, 2020

David O'Day said:
Which is why they are now repeatedly telling people to go to hospital if needed

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Be fucked if they go at 8PM on a Thursday and everybody is doing the macarena with the police lined up outside.

skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Yep that makes sense, it has been pointless us all staying at home when somebody can fly in from somewhere that is riddled with it and just go and walk about the shops anyway.

I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.

CCFCSteve · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?

This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.

I think comparing the measures and what’s worked and what’s not (whilst taking into account the cultures, population etc) is probably a far more useful comparison

Tonys right, NZ have done very well (got a mate and his family out there so chuffed) but very different country to us and many others in Europe (size, connectivity with other nearby nations etc etc)

Nick · Apr 27, 2020

chiefdave said:
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.

Surely we should be putting people into those makeshift hospitals that are empty?

Nick · Apr 27, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.

Robins is a stubborn bastard and should have made a change.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.

For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.

In terms of % of people confirmed with corona dying from it yes.

But in absolute figures of deaths if they're testing loads of people you'd expect them to have a higher number of overall deaths purely because they'd know that people had the virus. Their numbers are lower than ours, which suggests something different has occurred leading to the difference.

chiefdave · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.

Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.

CCFCSteve · Apr 27, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.

Nice analogy, but youre suggesting this is full time when most scientists are saying this is very early stages ? We don’t know how many waves there could be of this (I’m hoping just one or two but realistically that’s unlikely) and how it will impact nations in future

For example, I’d rather be riddled with it now if a majority of people who’ve had it get immunity (which we don’t know yet) than have a massive wave in autumn/winter. Alternatively if a vaccine is available in weeks (or a few months) or it’s found you don’t get immunity after contagion then I’d rather not be riddled now !

Ian1779 · Apr 27, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.

I’d say more 5-8 despite them being down to 9 men...

Nick · Apr 27, 2020

chiefdave said:
Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.

That depends on if other countries reporting and stats are done the same as ours though?

For example Africa seem to be immune from it. Is their social distancing working?

skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

Just caught some of Boris’ comeback. Many years ago a mate of mine who was a reasonably healthy 29 year old at the time got a nasty case of the flu and ended up in hospital for a week, most of which was on oxygen, he lost best part of 2 stone and it took him a good couple of months to get the weight back on and not look ill. Doesn’t Boris look well having been on the Covid 19 diet. Just saying. Gallows humour and all that.

David O'Day · Apr 27, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
Nice analogy, but youre suggesting this is full time when most scientists are saying this is very early stages ? We don’t know how many waves there could be of this (I’m hoping just one or two but realistically that’s unlikely) and how it will impact nations in future

No one knows how many waves there will be. They can guess but there is no science behind any off the guesses.

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Nick · Apr 27, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
Just caught some of Boris’ comeback. Many years ago a mate of mine who was a reasonably healthy 29 year old at the time got a nasty case of the flu and ended up in hospital for a week, most of which was on oxygen, he lost best part of 2 stone and it took him a good couple of months to get the weight back on and not look ill. Doesn’t Boris look well having been on the Covid 19 diet. Just saying. Gallows humour and all that.

2 stone you say? Just off to get coughed on at Walsgrave.

skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Robins is a stubborn bastard and should have made a change.

Taxi for Boris.

No plan B

skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
I think comparing the measures and what’s worked and what’s not (whilst taking into account the cultures, population etc) is probably a far more useful comparison

Tonys right, NZ have done very well (got a mate and his family out there so chuffed) but very different country to us and many others in Europe (size, connectivity with other nearby nations etc etc)

Politically, socially, mentality.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Apr 27, 2020

Nick said:
Surely we should be putting people into those makeshift hospitals that are empty?

But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"

skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

Ian1779 said:
I’d say more 5-8 despite them being down to 9 men...

And having 2 disallowed goals.

Nick · Apr 27, 2020

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"

Surely if they were a halfway house they are ideal for people quarantining after coming into the country?

David O'Day · Apr 27, 2020

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"

Apart from the london one they are step down hospitals

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skybluetony176 · Apr 27, 2020

chiefdave said:
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.

I think even before the compulsory quarantine they were expecting people to self isolate for 14 days once they arrived back, symptoms or no symptoms.

Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (44 Viewers)

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