Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (10 Viewers)

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?

This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.

I think comparing the measures and what’s worked and what’s not (whilst taking into account the cultures, population etc) is probably a far more useful comparison

Tonys right, NZ have done very well (got a mate and his family out there so chuffed) but very different country to us and many others in Europe (size, connectivity with other nearby nations etc etc)
 

Nick

Administrator
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.

Surely we should be putting people into those makeshift hospitals that are empty?
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.

For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.

In terms of % of people confirmed with corona dying from it yes.

But in absolute figures of deaths if they're testing loads of people you'd expect them to have a higher number of overall deaths purely because they'd know that people had the virus. Their numbers are lower than ours, which suggests something different has occurred leading to the difference.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.
Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.
 

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.

Nice analogy, but youre suggesting this is full time when most scientists are saying this is very early stages ? We don’t know how many waves there could be of this (I’m hoping just one or two but realistically that’s unlikely) and how it will impact nations in future

For example, I’d rather be riddled with it now if a majority of people who’ve had it get immunity (which we don’t know yet) than have a massive wave in autumn/winter. Alternatively if a vaccine is available in weeks (or a few months) or it’s found you don’t get immunity after contagion then I’d rather not be riddled now !
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.
I’d say more 5-8 despite them being down to 9 men...
 

Nick

Administrator
Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.

That depends on if other countries reporting and stats are done the same as ours though?

For example Africa seem to be immune from it. Is their social distancing working?
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
Just caught some of Boris’ comeback. Many years ago a mate of mine who was a reasonably healthy 29 year old at the time got a nasty case of the flu and ended up in hospital for a week, most of which was on oxygen, he lost best part of 2 stone and it took him a good couple of months to get the weight back on and not look ill. Doesn’t Boris look well having been on the Covid 19 diet. Just saying. Gallows humour and all that.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Nice analogy, but youre suggesting this is full time when most scientists are saying this is very early stages ? We don’t know how many waves there could be of this (I’m hoping just one or two but realistically that’s unlikely) and how it will impact nations in future
No one knows how many waves there will be. They can guess but there is no science behind any off the guesses.

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Nick

Administrator
Just caught some of Boris’ comeback. Many years ago a mate of mine who was a reasonably healthy 29 year old at the time got a nasty case of the flu and ended up in hospital for a week, most of which was on oxygen, he lost best part of 2 stone and it took him a good couple of months to get the weight back on and not look ill. Doesn’t Boris look well having been on the Covid 19 diet. Just saying. Gallows humour and all that.

2 stone you say? Just off to get coughed on at Walsgrave.

giphy.gif
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
I think comparing the measures and what’s worked and what’s not (whilst taking into account the cultures, population etc) is probably a far more useful comparison

Tonys right, NZ have done very well (got a mate and his family out there so chuffed) but very different country to us and many others in Europe (size, connectivity with other nearby nations etc etc)
Politically, socially, mentality.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Surely we should be putting people into those makeshift hospitals that are empty?

But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"
 

Nick

Administrator
But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"

Surely if they were a halfway house they are ideal for people quarantining after coming into the country?
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"
Apart from the london one they are step down hospitals

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skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.
I think even before the compulsory quarantine they were expecting people to self isolate for 14 days once they arrived back, symptoms or no symptoms.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
That depends on if other countries reporting and stats are done the same as ours though?

For example Africa seem to be immune from it. Is their social distancing working?

Africa has much less international travel so less likely to import it from numerous sources (easier track and trace) and often people living in less dense areas as they have more agricultural based economies etc. There may well be other factors (I don't know if something like the climate will help) but when you look at here and the US they are saying that people from BAME backgrounds are being disproportionately affected, so it really doesn't look like it's a DNA thing.
 

Nick

Administrator
Africa has much less international travel so less likely to import it from numerous sources (easier track and trace) and often people living in less dense areas as they have more agricultural based economies etc. There may well be other factors (I don't know if something like the climate will help) but when you look at here and the US they are saying that people from BAME backgrounds are being disproportionately affected, so it really doesn't look like it's a DNA thing.

It's more likely they haven't really been tested and people die all the time there so it doesn't get a mention.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Surely if they were a halfway house they are ideal for people quarantining after coming into the country?

I agree with that respect - the lack of testing/isolating travellers is a massive fuck up. But that's not to say the measures put in place haven't been worthwhile. They'd have been much better if we'd had these measures as well but just becuase we made the error with travel doesn't mean we may as well have said 'fuck it, let's just go the whole hog and get the social distancing wrong as well".
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
It's more likely they haven't really been tested and people die all the time there so it doesn't get a mention.

That may well be one of the factors involved along with what I've mentioned (I think someone asked one of the African presidents why they'd had no cases and he said "it's very simple - we have no tests".

But even so if the manner of people dying is different from normal it would get flagged up as being a problem or likely to be an outbreak of this. There could also be dictators keeping things quiet in certain areas and like you say if stuff happens in Africa it largely gets ignored over here.

That's not to say that they may well have a problem with it in the coming months.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
With Johnson back to 'work', it's becoming pretty clear there is a big push to get the economic pawns back to work asap regardless of the risk of death or serious illness. The Torygraph pushing misleading polls stating people want lockdown to end unconditionally, lots of air time given to cranks like Toby Young. Now the mass morgues are in place Plan A can be pursued once again.

I'm not sure if it is just being ignored that we're adding on 4k plus cases per day (and that's just diagnosed ones). I genuinely think we'll go to 100k+ excess deaths from this.

Yep. When you build a nation to be obsessed with money and wealth the calls for making money will begin way before it's sensible from a health perspective. I'm certain future generations will look back on us as idiots.

Even if the polls are misleading, that's all they are - polls. Just because the public supposedly want something doesn't make it the correct thing to do.

To be fair to Johnson he has at least said he's very wary of lifting lockdown too early, which seems to be a dissenting voice and probably won't go down well with the puppetmasters.

We're nowhere near ready to begin looking at reducing lockdown yet as although the figures do look like they're trending down slightly they're still very high and if we do I can see us suffering terribly from it.

Like others have said it does seem like some people aren't being quite as stringent in their movements/care as they were before. If we reduce lockdown without any testing/cure it could see so many people emerge all at once because they've been cooped up for over a month it could lead to a massive spread. I really fear what may happen over the next month or so and I feel a six-figure death sum is extremely likely.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! :) )
Apparently not. My neighbour spent 12 years working in Munich hospitals and is touch with former colleagues. Generally the underlying condition is recorded as the cause of death there. (virus apparently seen as speeding up the process, not the cause).
Also Germany not generally testing after death except in unusual circumstances - again it's data that will become available later when, for example, house deaths are compared with previous years data
She says similar happening here in Hungary where possible.
Only going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.
 

Nick

Administrator
Apparently not. My neighbour spent 12 years working in Munich hospitals and is touch with former colleagues. Generally the underlying condition is recorded as the cause of death there. (virus apparently seen as speeding up the process, not the cause).
Also Germany not generally testing after death except in unusual circumstances - again it's data that will become available later when, for example, house deaths are compared with previous years data
She says similar happening here in Hungary where possible.
Only going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.

Which is why is Germany are underplaying it and we are overplaying it then the numbers will be different.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
I see Raab says we're 'winning' still. It's up there with our great 2-6 'win' against Yeovil at home in league two, and me 'winning' the lottery every time I put it on

Although it's being said partly for morale and partly as a govt PR exercise I think they need to be careful about use of terms like that. People are already starting to be more lackadaisical in what they're doing and saying stuff like that is just going to lead to more complacency.

Plus as you say it's winning in a very warped sense. Like cutting your foot and getting gangrene and not getting it looked at, but then saying you did well because you only lost your foot rather than your whole leg. Better decision making could've stopped you losing your foot as well.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
Only going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.
tbh that'll be good enough (with a margin built in, of course) as even non Covid deaths caused by this crisis are still fair for inclusion in the impact of this, in my eyes
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
Again, it's just a calculation and an estimate.

Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?

So much of it is about politics, you have Piers Morgan on one hand saying the world is doomed and everybody is going to die and pushing his shite and people like Dom on the other hand trying to give Boris Johnson a reacharound.
Read the thread he posted ffs
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Which is why is Germany are underplaying it and we are overplaying it then the numbers will be different.

We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.

I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
tbh that'll be good enough (with a margin built in, of course) as even non Covid deaths caused by this crisis are still fair for inclusion in the impact of this, in my eyes
cynic in me thinks some will revisit it as increase above usual numbers of deaths per annum. eg" well those with serious underlying conditions were going to die some time in 2020 anyway". With some countries recording that way already some will try to justify things by "dumbing down the numbers" - name Cummings springs to mind for some reason
 

Nick

Administrator
We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.

I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.

Thats where you do it like for like.

Are Germany including care homes or just people who die in hospital?
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.

I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.
We are also recording deaths that may not be covid-19 as covid-19 deaths so it is hard to tell.

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