Do you want to discuss boring politics? (12 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

Removing your benefits is supporting you into work

that is not what that says is it, if you want to talk stop being so disingenuous as they are clearly talking about the 1bn green paper consultation earmarks for return to work help and schemes

 

---

[fernandopartridge]

that is not what that says is it, if you want to talk stop being so disingenuous as they are clearly talking about the 1bn green paper consultation earmarks for return to work help and schemes

Well it is what it says, it is paragraph 1 of the case for change. If that isn't the essence of the reason for change then what is? Why is cutting benefit even part of the solution?

 

[fernandopartridge]

The attitudes of old Labour grandees toward long term benefit claimants would be considered ‘far right’ today. This something people like Frank Field who still had that vague connection to Old Labour actually understood.

The problem I have when talking to people of the ‘left’ generally, is that this idea of public services is ‘underfunded’ is repeated ad nausem. Firstly, it’s a manipulation based ‘real terms’ and the principle that running costs need to be matched to inflation is a faulty idea. If private sector companies operated like that, we’d be in trouble - they typically don’t.

In any case, if all the issues around pensions, welfare, the NHS, schooling (and so on) could be fixed with ‘x’ more funding, the government would just do that. Especially a Labour government. The reason they can’t just magically increase the funding is a) the cost of servicing debt increases and b) it creates a death trap for taxpayers of ever ending tax to fund public services.

Citations needed. Everything you post is just the sort of half baked drivel you hear from Tufton St airheads.

 

[fernandopartridge]

it's a long term project designed over the life of a parliament, no one knows how things will be in 2029

balancing the books is not "bullshit", you need to be seen as knowing how you will pay for things or the debt market will finish you

still it's less than a year in and i don't and you don't know what the economy will be like in 2029

It isn't bullshit, it's a myth. The government does not need to borrow to spend. It chooses to sell bonds to the market, it's yet another subsidy for the already wealthy.

 

[fernandopartridge]

You just can't write it

 

[Grendel]

How is my disabled wife exploiting the system Dom?

PIP isn’t means tested at all as I understand it.

I don’t see how that’s sustainable.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Presumably by fair she meant it should be 10x the amount

 

[chiefdave]

There's the actual green paper if anyone actually wants to see what the plans actually are. Lot more "further consultation" than the press reports make out.

Not sure the fact that there's lots more further consolation planned does much to convince me this wasn't hurriedly thrown together because the economy is in a worse state than they expected and they have self inflicted fiscal rules to stick to.

Rather convenient that there's billions in welfare cuts announced shortly before Reeves has to do her spring statement where she's expected to have to announce the economy has fallen way short of her previous projections and there's a similarly sized hole in the finances that needs plugging.

 

[chiefdave]

still it's less than a year in and i don't and you don't know what the economy will be like in 2029

I will happily admit the country is in such a shit state it will take many years to turn things around completely. But equally when pretty much everything had gone to shit there should have been some easy wins ready to go.

We're now nearly a year in and I suspect if you polled the 'man on the street' the vast majority would say things haven't improved or struggle to point to much, if anything, positive the government has done for their day to day lives.

 

[Sick Boy]

You just can't write it

"You just love to see it."

 

[CovValleyBoy]

You just can't write it

As any Coventry kid of a certain age will tell you , toolmakers were the best of the factory shopfloor.
Starmer has no empathy , understanding of the working class past or present.
He is a complete DUD.

 

[MalcSB]

As any Coventry kid of a certain age will tell you , toolmakers were the best of the factory shopfloor.
Starmer has no empathy , understanding of the working class past or present.
He is a complete DUD.

He is a millionaire human rights lawyer turned DPP with a very generous pension protected by statute.

Lives on a completely different planet to most of us.

 

[MalcSB]

Not a good look. Another "mistake" in a Labour register of interests.

In dollars as well!!!

Peer who led government NHS review failed to declare shares in health firms

Lord Darzi’s undeclared interests in four companies included $500,000 of shares in US-based healthcare venture

www.theguardian.com

 

[shmmeee]

It's also now looking to take away my visually impaired wife's PIP. So you'll forgive my scepticism.

The treasury is being a bitch. Let’s see where it lands on this with the feeling of a big chunk of MPs

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Citations needed. Everything you post is just the sort of half baked drivel you hear from Tufton St airheads.

For what point specifically?

You don’t really have a right to call anyone an air head when your solution to any and every issue is more government and more funding. I made an observation on positions that people like yourself who just don’t see a limit to government spending. Be it welfare, the NHS, pensions or <insert public service>, your answer is predictable: ‘x’ is underfunded. You’d go further and nationalise things like utilities, which all have a cost.

The debt markets punished Liz Truss for announcing £45bn in unfunded tax cuts. The BoE supposedly intervened to avoid a pensions crisis and relatively mild interest rates increases risked a mortgage crisis. The debt markets have shown they will punish a government that does not ‘fund’ their spending commitments - be it tax cuts or government spending.

If you got your calculator out and added up all of the things you’d like the government to spend money on, it will cost a lot more than £45bn. The NHS would cost £30+ billion alone to bring it line with French and German healthcare spending.

 

[fernandopartridge]

For what point specifically?

You don’t really have a right to call anyone an air head when your solution to any and every issue is more government and more funding. I made an observation on positions that people like yourself who just don’t see a limit to government spending. Be it welfare, the NHS, pensions or <insert public service>, your answer is predictable: ‘x’ is underfunded. You’d go further and nationalise things like utilities, which all have a cost.

The debt markets punished Liz Truss for announcing £45bn in unfunded tax cuts. The BoE supposedly intervened to avoid a pensions crisis and relatively mild interest rates increases risked a mortgage crisis. The debt markets have shown they will punish a government that does not ‘fund’ their spending commitments - be it tax cuts or government spending.

If you got your calculator out and added up all of the things you’d like the government to spend money on, it will cost a lot more than £45bn. The NHS would cost £30+ billion alone to bring it line with French and German healthcare spending.

Citations needed into your ridiculous statements about inflation. Public bodies have a fixed income, their way of dealing with inflation is to cut costs. Private companies deal with inflation primarily by raising prices.

The debt markets do not expect the government to fully fund their spending, if that happened the "debt markets" would not exist. That would clearly not be desired as markets want to buy bonds as they represent the safest possible investment.

Regardless, the government does not need to borrow the currency it issues from the market. The full funding rule has existed since the UK was on the gold standard and is clearly irrelevant today.

Instead of Kate Andrews, read this The self-financing state: an institutional analysis of government expenditure, revenue collection and debt issuance operations in the United Kingdom

 

[Captain Dart]

Citations needed into your ridiculous statements about inflation. Public bodies have a fixed income, their way of dealing with inflation is to cut costs. Private companies deal with inflation primarily by raising prices.

The debt markets do not expect the government to fully fund their spending, if that happened the "debt markets" would not exist. That would clearly not be desired as markets want to buy bonds as they represent the safest possible investment.

Regardless, the government does not need to borrow the currency it issues from the market. The full funding rule has existed since the UK was on the gold standard and is clearly irrelevant today.

Instead of Kate Andrews, read this The self-financing state: an institutional analysis of government expenditure, revenue collection and debt issuance operations in the United Kingdom

There are rumours about the US returning to partially gold backed currency and that China has been building undeclared gold reserves and if waiting for the time to pull the plug on the US.

For years commentators have been predicting a financial meltdown, debt in the world is many times what could ever be repaid.

One never knows what to believe.

 

[fernandopartridge]

There are rumours about the US returning to partially gold backed currency and that China has been building undeclared gold reserves and if waiting for the time to pull the plug on the US.

For years commentators have been predicting a financial meltdown, debt in the world is many times what could ever be repaid.

One never knows what to believe.

Private debt is a problem, public debt is a necessity

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

There are rumours about the US returning to partially gold backed currency and that China has been building undeclared gold reserves and if waiting for the time to pull the plug on the US.

For years commentators have been predicting a financial meltdown, debt in the world is many times what could ever be repaid.

One never knows what to believe.

All that tells you is the problem is with the system, not the debt.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Citations needed into your ridiculous statements about inflation. Public bodies have a fixed income, their way of dealing with inflation is to cut costs. Private companies deal with inflation primarily by raising prices.

The debt markets do not expect the government to fully fund their spending, if that happened the "debt markets" would not exist. That would clearly not be desired as markets want to buy bonds as they represent the safest possible investment.

Regardless, the government does not need to borrow the currency it issues from the market. The full funding rule has existed since the UK was on the gold standard and is clearly irrelevant today.

Instead of Kate Andrews, read this The self-financing state: an institutional analysis of government expenditure, revenue collection and debt issuance operations in the United Kingdom

The paper you shared, what do you think that means in practice… Do you take it to mean that in practice, a sovereign currency issuer can spend whatever it likes with no repercussions?

Private debt is a problem, public debt is a necessity

How far does this actually go?

 

[Captain Dart]

 

[fernandopartridge]

The paper you shared, what do you think that means in practice… Do you take it to mean that in practice, a sovereign currency issuer can spend whatever it likes with no repercussions?



How far does this actually go?

No, where does it say that. It is a simple fact that there is no operational dependency on either tax or borrowing to spend.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Public debt is all money created that hasn't yet been taxed, it necessarily goes on forever

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

No, where does it say that. It is a simple fact that there is no operational dependency on either tax or borrowing to spend.

Why did you share it then?

It just seems like you’re avoiding the question that I posed to you in the first place: is there any limitations to government spending?

The impression I’m getting from you, is that your answer is no and there isn’t any limits and any external factors are essentially irrelevant e.g. the markets (be it debt, currency or pension markets etc.)

My point had nothing to do with ‘operational dependency’ because you’re quite right in saying the government doesn’t need to raise ‘x’ amount to spend ‘y’ amounts on whatever priorities. The difference is, as I understand it, is that we differ on whether or not external forces could bring a government down. The living example I’ve got is the market reaction to Truss’ ill-fated ‘mini budget’.

 

[mmttww]

Labour leadership making mugs of Labour voters and MPs. F*ck the manifesto; let's demonise vulnerable people and pretend we can afford public services, pensions and the rest by saving a few quid on PIPs. Dickheads.

 

[CCFCSteve]

The paper you shared, what do you think that means in practice… Do you take it to mean that in practice, a sovereign currency issuer can spend whatever it likes with no repercussions?



How far does this actually go?

FP is correct in a way, we can print however much we want, to pay for whatever we want. What is never really acknowledged is the impact of a government not demonstrating a semblance of financial control ie cost of borrowing goes up, need to print more to cover interest on government debt, currency gets debased, rich get richer (by owning tangible assets rather than cash), poor get poorer as you get less and less for your £/$. I’ve said before it’s probably the cruelest, least progressive form of underhand taxation

A lot of countries are struggling to avoid a debt spiral where they will be unable to grow sufficiently to service debt interest and maintain debt at a manageable level* ie debt and interest costs keep growing, potentially uncontrollably. I might be wrong but I’m guessing only likely solution will be more QE and currency debasement


*trumps desperately trying to get yields down as US is due to refinance something like $7trn in coming months. Think they’re annual debt costs are already $1trn per annum

 

[fernandopartridge]

FP is correct in a way, we can print however much we want, to pay for whatever we want. What is never really acknowledged is the impact of a government not demonstrating a semblance of financial control ie cost of borrowing goes up, need to print more to cover interest on government debt, currency gets debased, rich get richer (by owning tangible assets rather than cash), poor get poorer as you get less and less for your £/$. I’ve said before it’s probably the cruelest, least progressive form of underhand taxation

A lot of countries are struggling to avoid a debt spiral where they will be unable to grow sufficiently to service debt interest and maintain debt at a manageable level* ie debt and interest costs keep growing, potentially uncontrollably. I might be wrong but I’m guessing only likely solution will be more QE and currency debasement


*trumps desperately trying to get yields down as US is due to refinance something like $7trn in coming months. Think they’re annual debt costs are already $1trn per annum

The point is that it does not need to sell bonds to the bond market

 

[fernandopartridge]

Why did you share it then?

It just seems like you’re avoiding the question that I posed to you in the first place: is there any limitations to government spending?

The impression I’m getting from you, is that your answer is no and there isn’t any limits and any external factors are essentially irrelevant e.g. the markets (be it debt, currency or pension markets etc.)

My point had nothing to do with ‘operational dependency’ because you’re quite right in saying the government doesn’t need to raise ‘x’ amount to spend ‘y’ amounts on whatever priorities. The difference is, as I understand it, is that we differ on whether or not external forces could bring a government down. The living example I’ve got is the market reaction to Truss’ ill-fated ‘mini budget’.

The are limitations to government spending of course, but they are nothing to do with tax collection which you continuously imply.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

FP is correct in a way, we can print however much we want, to pay for whatever we want. What is never really acknowledged is the impact of a government not demonstrating a semblance of financial control ie cost of borrowing goes up, need to print more to cover interest on government debt, currency gets debased, rich get richer (by owning tangible assets rather than cash), poor get poorer as you get less and less for your £/$. I’ve said before it’s probably the cruelest, least progressive form of underhand taxation

A lot of countries are struggling to avoid a debt spiral where they will be unable to grow sufficiently to service debt interest and maintain debt at a manageable level* ie debt and interest costs keep growing, potentially uncontrollably. I might be wrong but I’m guessing only likely solution will be more QE and currency debasement


*trumps desperately trying to get yields down as US is due to refinance something like $7trn in coming months. Think they’re annual debt costs are already $1trn per annum

Good example of printing money is the Weimar Republic, which post WWI decided tp meet the cost of reparations by just printing shitloads of money. This of course kept on massively devaluing it causing massive hyper inflation.

I am still annoyed though that we are told that printing money is not really an option (no magic money tree) yet it was deemed perfectly acceptable to do so to bail out banks.

So it can be done, it just has to be done carefully. Sadly it seems what I think it would be good to do it for is very different to what financial institutions and central banks think it is worthwhile for.

 

[Captain Dart]

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[Captain Dart]

You just can't write it

When in opposition say anything. Once in power shit all over the electorate that voted for him.

You are witnessing a masterclass in hypocrisy.

 

[CCFCSteve]

The point is that it does not need to sell bonds to the bond market

If they didn’t, I presume the only answer is print more ? There are £2.5trn worth of bonds that would need to be repaid/replaced over time. I don’t know what would happen in terms of inflation (hyper inflation) and currency debasement if we printed all that cash but I doubt it would be pretty.

Even if you did it gradually businesses, workers etc would then assume continued higher inflation/debasement for longer as they’d know you weren’t buying bonds and just printing more. Can you imagine the unions and their pay demands if they didn’t think the government had to borrow money/show fiscal responsibility ?!!! Prices would spiral. I’d imagine that would put inflation through the roof/hyperinflation even if the actual replacement of bonds with printed cash didn’t.

The above is guesswork but unless I’ve misunderstood something I can’t imagine anyone, even someone like crazy Truss, would even consider it

 

[fernandopartridge]

If they didn’t, I presume the only answer is print more ? There are £2.5trn worth of bonds that would need to be repaid/replaced over time. I don’t know what would happen in terms of inflation (hyper inflation) and currency debasement if we printed all that cash but I doubt it would be pretty.

Even if you did it gradually businesses, workers etc would then assume continued higher inflation/debasement for longer as they’d know you weren’t buying bonds and just printing more. Can you imagine the unions and their pay demands if they didn’t think the government had to borrow money/show fiscal responsibility ?!!! Prices would spiral. I’d imagine that would put inflation through the roof/hyperinflation even if the actual replacement of bonds with printed cash didn’t.

The above is guesswork but unless I’ve misunderstood something I can’t imagine anyone, even someone like crazy Truss, would even consider it

A bond is just swapping a reserve attracting interest at the BOE for a gilt, it pays interest on a defined investment over a defined period rather than just interest on reserves. Not really sure what difference it makes in inflation terms.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Anyway, I'm going to retire from this thread I think. It's tedious arguing the same points all of the time.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Scandinavians seem to be among the happiest people in the world paying high taxes in exchange for excellent public services, good pay and conditions at work etc. People insisting on belt tightening seem to forget we have counter arguments on our doorstep