I think you’re overplaying LNG, it’s a historically unreliable source yet still equates for about a fifth of our usage.
It’s unreliable for many reasons. The biggest producers are Iran, Russia and Qatar and we’re only on trading terms with one. We don’t have a lot of long term contracts for supply effecting security of supply. We’re far from the biggest users so are not seen as a preferred market effecting security. It takes 2 weeks to get here by ship which coupled with our lack of storage facilities for all gas products makes us vulnerable to running out of supplies, remember that because of the beast from the east and our lack of storage due to the government’s decision to allow the Rough storage depot (ironically now being reopened in a panic with huge cost to the taxpayer) close we were estimated to be less than a day of running out of gas at one point which drove wholesale prices up 8 fold. There’s also the small matter of availability. The EU is storing LNG as quickly as it can get it, it’s estimated that the EU’s imports of LNG has risen by almost 60% in recent months ahead of the winter so there’s questions as you point out of is there enough to go around.
We seriously need a mild winter.
Yeah, EU is getting a majority of its LNG converted and piped from us I think, so it has to come through us to get there. They don’t have the terminals, hence the need to store. We don’t have the storage as you say but should be able to maintain supply.
Im not saying there no risk of us having the odd black out, we were close in London a few weeks ago and had to pay a ridiculous amount to Belgium to stop it from happening, my understanding is tge risk of sustained blackouts should be lessened due to LNG infrastructure (together with other energy generation) My point with Europe is if the taps get turned off by Russia, once stored gas is utilised they’d be in massive trouble as they don’t have the infrastructure to quickly replenish supplies in winter. That’s why there’s has already been some minor rationing in Germany who are obviously as massive energy user due to manufacturing over there
My wider point was relating to the fact that trying to manage/reduce demand and usage will be essential Europe wide inc us this winter…and as you say, pray for a mild…and windy one !
Ps think we rely on more gas for energy generation than other countries though, like France is majority nuclear, which is not good at the moment
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