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shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
So, we’re going to have tax rises. I’d like to suggest that even more so than previous financial disasters the fault for this one lies very firmly at the feet of the super rich and their think tanks. As such morally the money to fix it should come from there too.

I shall now hold my breath.
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
So, we’re going to have tax rises. I’d like to suggest that even more so than previous financial disasters the fault for this one lies very firmly at the feet of the super rich and their think tanks. As such morally the money to fix it should come from there too.

I shall now hold my breath.
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And austerity. Although we’ve been “reassured” this morning from the current chancellor that they won’t be as hard and deep as last time. Which is a false pretence as although the country was in a bad state interest rates were falling and inflation wasn’t out of control so it was against a very different backdrop.
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
Yeah, she’s done



It was such a school boy error it was like she’d never been in government. She’s been in every single cabinet of the last 12 years. How could they entertain going to the polls saying she has the experience of government Labour doesn’t after this, her experience in government carries zero credit. She’s done on that reason alone.
 
Philosoraptor

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
I wish political parties wouldn't confuse Libertarianism with free market shit. This is not what John Locke mean't in the second of the Two Treaties of Government when talking about property.

I get the same tingling sensation when Americans start talking about gun rights and the Second Amendment, that we are dealing with some total fuckwits.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
skybluetony176 said:
Yeah, she’s done



It was such a school boy error it was like she’d never been in government. She’s been in every single cabinet of the last 12 years. How could they entertain going to the polls saying she has the experience of government Labour doesn’t after this, her experience in government carries zero credit. She’s done on that reason alone.
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What’s an even bigger issue for me is the MPs who fell in line as soon as it looked like Truss was going to win, many of whom should know better. They knew the crazy plans she was spouting but supposedly intelligent MPs fell in line probably for personal gain/progression
 
D

Deleted member 9744

Guest
CCFCSteve said:
What’s an even bigger issue for me is the MPs who fell in line as soon as it looked like Truss was going to win, many of whom should know better. They knew the crazy plans she was spouting but supposedly intelligent MPs fell in line probably for personal gain/progression
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Not sure many of them are intelligent but I agree with your point.
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
skybluetony176 said:
And austerity. Although we’ve been “reassured” this morning from the current chancellor that they won’t be as hard and deep as last time. Which is a false pretence as although the country was in a bad state interest rates were falling and inflation wasn’t out of control so it was against a very different backdrop.
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If the general public tolerate another round of austerity they deserve everything they get.
There should be massive civil disobedience.

How many deaths has the last round d been linked with?
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
America are in a bit of trouble themselves, equally of their own making. Their bond yields and mortgage rates are pretty much the same as ours. I’d go as far to say that some of our/EU interest rate issues are thanks to America fiscal policy fuelling demand/inflation and then the fed having to raise rates aggressively to try to stifle it…meaning everyone has to follow to protect their own currency.

The eurozone are taking steps to try to protect some smaller countries although again the Italian bond yields are similar to/higher than ours. They ultimately need to do this to try to protect the Euro though and I think this period could be one of their greatest challenges

It’s not our ‘insignificance’ that matters, smaller economies than ours can borrow at lower rates…it’s credibility. Kwartang/Truss mini budget was a major fuck up due to their arrogance that the markets don’t matter…well they do, as that’s where we need to go for a decent proportion of our government borrowings. Also, if BOE think fiscal policies are inflationary they’ll have to raise rates even higher. It was a shambles all round.

Ps just heard Hunts also pulling/delaying the income tax rate reduction. I’d imagine by the time he’s finished they’ll be just the energy assistance left ! What mandate has Truss got ?! Members voted her in on policies that are now all being reversed/ rejected

edit - I nearly sent myself to sleep re-reading that. Sorry all
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Credibility didn’t seem to matter too much when a game show host pushed through $2 trillion worth of permanent tax cuts through in the US five years ago!

Anyway, the US may be in “a bit” of trouble but it’s clearly nothing compared to us. Successive US governments have been able to push (broadly) inflationary fiscal policies and get away with it for three main reasons. One - a global reserve currency that will always find buyers, no matter the macroeconomic pressure…..which we don’t have. Two - a competitive market of 300 million consumers on its doorstep, which is very useful to have when your economic policies are solely focused on unleashing growth. We also don’t have this - or at least, we voted to leave the closest thing we had to something similar in 2016.

Third is the luxury of ultra-loose monetary policy, where a credible, independent and powerful central bank has enough ceiling space to chill the economy if pro-growth policies lead to prices running too hot. The US had the foresight/luck to get their policies out the door before monetary policy really began to tighten and as you say, even still may not fully get away with it. Truss inexplicably decided to try a similar act even though she knew the window was closing, if not already shut. Presumably she either thought the power of the UK economy, or the power of the Bank of England (who have not covered themselves in glory) would be enough to see us smash through regardless. Unfortunately we’re no longer the economic force she thinks we are, and you need to do more than take the chains off to win a weightlifting competition.

The whole thing is a humiliating lesson in British hubris and the folly of our economic exceptionalism. We’ve tried to dress up as Uncle Sam and came out looking like Greece. To try and compare us favourably to Italy - a country with no ability to tweak its own monetary policy, and one that goes through Prime Ministers faster than the Tory party goes through chancellors - shows us precisely how bad things are right now. We should be running rings around Italy right now - at least, wasn’t that the point of 2016?
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
clint van damme said:
If the general public tolerate another round of austerity they deserve everything they get.
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Made a post before, think it was in the covid thread, about how the current generation are fed up of being told they aren't worse off than the previous generation when the country lurches from one 'once in a generation' crisis to the next. He then reeled off one after the other starting with the 2008 financial crisis and this will no doubt just be the next one of the list.

You do have to wonder how much more people can take. People are really struggling and public services are cut to levels where they are struggling to provide basic levels of service, where do they think further cuts can be made?
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
Credibility didn’t seem to matter too much when a game show host pushed through $2 trillion worth of permanent tax cuts through in the US five years ago!

Anyway, the US may be in “a bit” of trouble but it’s clearly nothing compared to us. Successive US governments have been able to push (broadly) inflationary fiscal policies and get away with it for three main reasons. One - a global reserve currency that will always find buyers, no matter the macroeconomic pressure…..which we don’t have. Two - a competitive market of 300 million consumers on its doorstep, which is very useful to have when your economic policies are solely focused on unleashing growth. We also don’t have this - or at least, we voted to leave the closest thing we had to something similar in 2016.

Third is the luxury of ultra-loose monetary policy, where a credible, independent and powerful central bank has enough ceiling space to chill the economy if pro-growth policies lead to prices running too hot. The US had the foresight/luck to get their policies out the door before monetary policy really began to tighten and as you say, even still may not fully get away with it. Truss inexplicably decided to try a similar act even though she knew the window was closing, if not already shut. Presumably she either thought the power of the UK economy, or the power of the Bank of England (who have not covered themselves in glory) would be enough to see us smash through regardless. Unfortunately we’re no longer the economic force she thinks we are, and you need to do more than take the chains off to win a weightlifting competition.

The whole thing is a humiliating lesson in British hubris and the folly of our economic exceptionalism. We’ve tried to dress up as Uncle Sam and came out looking like Greece. To try and compare us favourably to Italy - a country with no ability to tweak its own monetary policy, and one that goes through Prime Ministers faster than the Tory party goes through chancellors - shows us precisely how bad things are right now. We should be running rings around Italy right now - at least, wasn’t that the point of 2016?
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I was responding to your comments about the eurozone attempting to help countries/economies, hence my comment about Italy. The fact there is the ECB rate to help try to manage high but varying inflation levels across different economies is exactly why i think this period could be one of the EUs greatest challenges.

We agree a lot about America but even with their advantages of being the reserve currency they still have same/similar bond yields and mortgage rates to us currently due to their excessive fiscal stimulus which caused demand led inflation that the Feds needed to aggressively try to control. This is likely to set off a painful chain reaction which has only just started. They were lucky as you say that they could be aggressive with hikes from a position of relative strength, where we/EU are raising rates (partly to match US) from far weaker economic positions with a war on our doorstep. Their inflation is pretty much all self inflicted, ours/EUs is mainly due directly or indirectly to the war and increasing energy prices*.

The less said about the mini budget the better but the point of my post was this was the main problem ie total lack of credibility, rather than our position on the world stage. If we had a sound, credible economic/fiscal plan rates would be still be high but would reduce

*both also had post covid demand/supply issues which lead to a proportion of inflation
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
I was responding to your comments about the eurozone attempting to help countries/economies, hence my comment about Italy. The fact there is the ECB rate to help try to manage high but varying inflation levels across different economies is exactly why i think this period could be one of the EUs greatest challenges.

We agree a lot about America but even with their advantages of being the reserve currency they still have same/similar bond yields and mortgage rates to us currently due to their excessive fiscal stimulus which caused demand led inflation that the Feds needed to aggressively try to control. This is likely to set off a painful chain reaction which has only just started. They were lucky as you say that they could be aggressive with hikes from a position of relative strength, where we/EU are raising rates (partly to match US) from far weaker economic positions with a war on our doorstep. Their inflation is pretty much all self inflicted, ours/EUs is mainly due directly or indirectly to the war and increasing energy prices*.

The less said about the mini budget the better but the point of my post was this was the main problem ie total lack of credibility, rather than our position on the world stage. If we had a sound, credible economic/fiscal plan rates would be still be high but would reduce

*both also had post covid demand/supply issues which lead to a proportion of inflation
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If credibility was the main issue then Truss could presumably hire George Osborne as Chancellor tomorrow, re-implement the same tax cuts that he pushed through a decade ago, and watch the markets nod with quiet approval?

Pointing at the US and saying they're going to face similar problems isn't going to help, because as you say, it's other countries like us who bear the brunt of their monetary tightening, and they're just better equipped to deal with it all for the other reasons I laid out. (And 90% of US homeowners have a 30-year fixed mortgage anyway - rising mortgage rates aren't going to bite in anything like the same way)

As a country we are somehow convinced that we have a divine right to sit at the same table as the United States and run our economy the same way they do. Whoops!
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
If credibility was the main issue then Truss could presumably hire George Osborne as Chancellor tomorrow, re-implement the same tax cuts that he pushed through a decade ago, and watch the markets nod with quiet approval?

Pointing at the US and saying they're going to face similar problems isn't going to help, because as you say, it's other countries like us who bear the brunt of their monetary tightening, and they're just better equipped to deal with it all for the other reasons I laid out. (And 90% of US homeowners have a 30-year fixed mortgage anyway - rising mortgage rates aren't going to bite in anything like the same way)

As a country we are somehow convinced that we have a divine right to sit at the same table as the United States and run our economy the same way they do. Whoops!
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That last paragraph is spot on.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
If credibility was the main issue then Truss could presumably hire George Osborne as Chancellor tomorrow, re-implement the same tax cuts that he pushed through a decade ago, and watch the markets nod with quiet approval?

Pointing at the US and saying they're going to face similar problems isn't going to help, because as you say, it's other countries like us who bear the brunt of their monetary tightening, and they're just better equipped to deal with it all for the other reasons I laid out. (And 90% of US homeowners have a 30-year fixed mortgage anyway - rising mortgage rates aren't going to bite in anything like the same way)

As a country we are somehow convinced that we have a divine right to sit at the same table as the United States and run our economy the same way they do. Whoops!
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Can we get Mike Ashley to steady the ship for a while?
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
If credibility was the main issue then Truss could presumably hire George Osborne as Chancellor tomorrow, re-implement the same tax cuts that he pushed through a decade ago, and watch the markets nod with quiet approval?

Pointing at the US and saying they're going to face similar problems isn't going to help, because as you say, it's other countries like us who bear the brunt of their monetary tightening, and they're just better equipped to deal with it all for the other reasons I laid out. (And 90% of US homeowners have a 30-year fixed mortgage anyway - rising mortgage rates aren't going to bite in anything like the same way)

As a country we are somehow convinced that we have a divine right to sit at the same table as the United States and run our economy the same way they do. Whoops!
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I never said US will have the same issues and we are obviously very different economies.They’re the biggest in the world FFS and have the worlds reserve currency. I’m not sure anyone believes we’re the same ? My point was that they’re currently having to borrow at similar rates and they are facing some challenges of their own in coming months. Their rates are being driven more by need of fed to raise rates aggressively due to overheated market/inflation driven by their fiscal policies

In terms of credibility, only time will tell whether we can restore this fully, however, Hunt is talking about unwinding proposed tax cuts and potentially some cuts. The markets have already indicated they are happier than a week ago (check the rates today*) however, ultimately Truss might have to go as well….no bad thing

The 30 fixed mortgages are fine as long as you don’t want to move or are a first time buyer. The US housing market could be in freefall in coming months


*U.K. 2y 3.5% (last week 4.72%)
U.K. 10yr 4% (last week 4.69%)
Whether this remains who knows but as I’ve said credibility is the main driver in conjunction with BoE/central bank decisions (obviously various other things like economy, inflation. etc but all interlinked - way above my knowledge)
 
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C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
Really think Labour should call a VoNC, it would fail, but tie the lot of them to this administration.
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They’ve got to really. They can’t be in the media saying a GE should take place and not call for it via VoNC. As you say it would fail but they’re well within their rights with the current shambles
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
Mercifully for the UK (in one sense) the markets seem settled this morning. Looks like Hunt has calmed the nerves enough until at least he makes his statement in the commons this afternoon. Unfortunately (for the UK) that means Truss has probably been bought some time.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
skybluetony176 said:
Mercifully for the UK (in one sense) the markets seem settled this morning. Looks like Hunt has calmed the nerves enough until at least he makes his statement in the commons this afternoon. Unfortunately (for the UK) that means Truss has probably been bought some time.
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Now they just need to be able to sell tax rises and service cuts to the public without the crutch of “Labour spent all the money” ;)
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
They need to bin Truss off ASAP, the longer she stays the more damage she does to the Tory party.

I think they may as well get a GE over and done with. They're going to lose, might as well do it now and try and limit the damage before people really start to feel the cost of living crisis.
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
PVA said:
They need to bin Truss off ASAP, the longer she stays the more damage she does to the Tory party.

I think they may as well get a GE over and done with. They're going to lose, might as well do it now and try and limit the damage before people really start to feel the cost of living crisis.
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Would anyone in the party vaguely competent want it, is there even anyone vaguely competent left?

If I was someone like Sunak, I'd be thinking of the long game. Leading the party to victory in 2029(?) is a better long term career prospect than being the leader that loses after over a decade in power.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
chiefdave said:
Would anyone in the party vaguely competent want it, is there even anyone vaguely competent left?

If I was someone like Sunak, I'd be thinking of the long game. Leading the party to victory in 2029(?) is a better long term career prospect than being the leader that loses after over a decade in power.
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I'd definitely be heading for leader of the opposition rather than the poor fool to take them into the next election.

That said, you can now blame Truss if you lose the election, surely?
 
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