And austerity. Although we’ve been “reassured” this morning from the current chancellor that they won’t be as hard and deep as last time. Which is a false pretence as although the country was in a bad state interest rates were falling and inflation wasn’t out of control so it was against a very different backdrop.So, we’re going to have tax rises. I’d like to suggest that even more so than previous financial disasters the fault for this one lies very firmly at the feet of the super rich and their think tanks. As such morally the money to fix it should come from there too.
I shall now hold my breath.
Yeah, she’s done
It was such a school boy error it was like she’d never been in government. She’s been in every single cabinet of the last 12 years. How could they entertain going to the polls saying she has the experience of government Labour doesn’t after this, her experience in government carries zero credit. She’s done on that reason alone.
Not sure many of them are intelligent but I agree with your point.What’s an even bigger issue for me is the MPs who fell in line as soon as it looked like Truss was going to win, many of whom should know better. They knew the crazy plans she was spouting but supposedly intelligent MPs fell in line probably for personal gain/progression
And austerity. Although we’ve been “reassured” this morning from the current chancellor that they won’t be as hard and deep as last time. Which is a false pretence as although the country was in a bad state interest rates were falling and inflation wasn’t out of control so it was against a very different backdrop.
More than the pandemic. People need reminding of that.If the general public tolerate another round of austerity they deserve everything they get.
There should be massive civil disobedience.
How many deaths has the last round d been linked with?
America are in a bit of trouble themselves, equally of their own making. Their bond yields and mortgage rates are pretty much the same as ours. I’d go as far to say that some of our/EU interest rate issues are thanks to America fiscal policy fuelling demand/inflation and then the fed having to raise rates aggressively to try to stifle it…meaning everyone has to follow to protect their own currency.
The eurozone are taking steps to try to protect some smaller countries although again the Italian bond yields are similar to/higher than ours. They ultimately need to do this to try to protect the Euro though and I think this period could be one of their greatest challenges
It’s not our ‘insignificance’ that matters, smaller economies than ours can borrow at lower rates…it’s credibility. Kwartang/Truss mini budget was a major fuck up due to their arrogance that the markets don’t matter…well they do, as that’s where we need to go for a decent proportion of our government borrowings. Also, if BOE think fiscal policies are inflationary they’ll have to raise rates even higher. It was a shambles all round.
Ps just heard Hunts also pulling/delaying the income tax rate reduction. I’d imagine by the time he’s finished they’ll be just the energy assistance left ! What mandate has Truss got ?! Members voted her in on policies that are now all being reversed/ rejected
edit - I nearly sent myself to sleep re-reading that. Sorry all
The funniest thing about the Exploding Heads sketch’s are they’re just repeating what actual people have said in a comical voice with added irony. Same with Joe Lycett.Tory voters in a nutshell
Made a post before, think it was in the covid thread, about how the current generation are fed up of being told they aren't worse off than the previous generation when the country lurches from one 'once in a generation' crisis to the next. He then reeled off one after the other starting with the 2008 financial crisis and this will no doubt just be the next one of the list.If the general public tolerate another round of austerity they deserve everything they get.
Credibility didn’t seem to matter too much when a game show host pushed through $2 trillion worth of permanent tax cuts through in the US five years ago!
Anyway, the US may be in “a bit” of trouble but it’s clearly nothing compared to us. Successive US governments have been able to push (broadly) inflationary fiscal policies and get away with it for three main reasons. One - a global reserve currency that will always find buyers, no matter the macroeconomic pressure…..which we don’t have. Two - a competitive market of 300 million consumers on its doorstep, which is very useful to have when your economic policies are solely focused on unleashing growth. We also don’t have this - or at least, we voted to leave the closest thing we had to something similar in 2016.
Third is the luxury of ultra-loose monetary policy, where a credible, independent and powerful central bank has enough ceiling space to chill the economy if pro-growth policies lead to prices running too hot. The US had the foresight/luck to get their policies out the door before monetary policy really began to tighten and as you say, even still may not fully get away with it. Truss inexplicably decided to try a similar act even though she knew the window was closing, if not already shut. Presumably she either thought the power of the UK economy, or the power of the Bank of England (who have not covered themselves in glory) would be enough to see us smash through regardless. Unfortunately we’re no longer the economic force she thinks we are, and you need to do more than take the chains off to win a weightlifting competition.
The whole thing is a humiliating lesson in British hubris and the folly of our economic exceptionalism. We’ve tried to dress up as Uncle Sam and came out looking like Greece. To try and compare us favourably to Italy - a country with no ability to tweak its own monetary policy, and one that goes through Prime Ministers faster than the Tory party goes through chancellors - shows us precisely how bad things are right now. We should be running rings around Italy right now - at least, wasn’t that the point of 2016?
I was responding to your comments about the eurozone attempting to help countries/economies, hence my comment about Italy. The fact there is the ECB rate to help try to manage high but varying inflation levels across different economies is exactly why i think this period could be one of the EUs greatest challenges.
We agree a lot about America but even with their advantages of being the reserve currency they still have same/similar bond yields and mortgage rates to us currently due to their excessive fiscal stimulus which caused demand led inflation that the Feds needed to aggressively try to control. This is likely to set off a painful chain reaction which has only just started. They were lucky as you say that they could be aggressive with hikes from a position of relative strength, where we/EU are raising rates (partly to match US) from far weaker economic positions with a war on our doorstep. Their inflation is pretty much all self inflicted, ours/EUs is mainly due directly or indirectly to the war and increasing energy prices*.
The less said about the mini budget the better but the point of my post was this was the main problem ie total lack of credibility, rather than our position on the world stage. If we had a sound, credible economic/fiscal plan rates would be still be high but would reduce
*both also had post covid demand/supply issues which lead to a proportion of inflation
If credibility was the main issue then Truss could presumably hire George Osborne as Chancellor tomorrow, re-implement the same tax cuts that he pushed through a decade ago, and watch the markets nod with quiet approval?
Pointing at the US and saying they're going to face similar problems isn't going to help, because as you say, it's other countries like us who bear the brunt of their monetary tightening, and they're just better equipped to deal with it all for the other reasons I laid out. (And 90% of US homeowners have a 30-year fixed mortgage anyway - rising mortgage rates aren't going to bite in anything like the same way)
As a country we are somehow convinced that we have a divine right to sit at the same table as the United States and run our economy the same way they do. Whoops!
If credibility was the main issue then Truss could presumably hire George Osborne as Chancellor tomorrow, re-implement the same tax cuts that he pushed through a decade ago, and watch the markets nod with quiet approval?
Pointing at the US and saying they're going to face similar problems isn't going to help, because as you say, it's other countries like us who bear the brunt of their monetary tightening, and they're just better equipped to deal with it all for the other reasons I laid out. (And 90% of US homeowners have a 30-year fixed mortgage anyway - rising mortgage rates aren't going to bite in anything like the same way)
As a country we are somehow convinced that we have a divine right to sit at the same table as the United States and run our economy the same way they do. Whoops!
Can we get Mike Ashley to steady the ship for a while?
Too late they’ve already given it to Huntsy until the end of the season.
If credibility was the main issue then Truss could presumably hire George Osborne as Chancellor tomorrow, re-implement the same tax cuts that he pushed through a decade ago, and watch the markets nod with quiet approval?
Pointing at the US and saying they're going to face similar problems isn't going to help, because as you say, it's other countries like us who bear the brunt of their monetary tightening, and they're just better equipped to deal with it all for the other reasons I laid out. (And 90% of US homeowners have a 30-year fixed mortgage anyway - rising mortgage rates aren't going to bite in anything like the same way)
As a country we are somehow convinced that we have a divine right to sit at the same table as the United States and run our economy the same way they do. Whoops!
Lowest ever amount of Tory MPs if it happened. Seeing people saying no election until 2025
Thats why the Tories won’t allow it. Most would be out of work
Really think Labour should call a VoNC, it would fail, but tie the lot of them to this administration.
Mercifully for the UK (in one sense) the markets seem settled this morning. Looks like Hunt has calmed the nerves enough until at least he makes his statement in the commons this afternoon. Unfortunately (for the UK) that means Truss has probably been bought some time.
Would anyone in the party vaguely competent want it, is there even anyone vaguely competent left?They need to bin Truss off ASAP, the longer she stays the more damage she does to the Tory party.
I think they may as well get a GE over and done with. They're going to lose, might as well do it now and try and limit the damage before people really start to feel the cost of living crisis.
I'd definitely be heading for leader of the opposition rather than the poor fool to take them into the next election.Would anyone in the party vaguely competent want it, is there even anyone vaguely competent left?
If I was someone like Sunak, I'd be thinking of the long game. Leading the party to victory in 2029(?) is a better long term career prospect than being the leader that loses after over a decade in power.
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