Grendel
Well-Known Member
No but it’s nonsense to believe a government will slit its own throat also of course the Corbyn administration proposed Johnson up when they thought they’d lose
Do you want to discuss boring politics? (59 Viewers)
- Thread starter mrtrench
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No but it’s nonsense to believe a government will slit its own throat also of course the Corbyn administration proposed Johnson up when they thought they’d lose
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
That assumes there was ever such an interest, I genuinely do not believe that there was.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Only thing Sunak can do atm is cross his fingers things get better and / or Labour score a terrible own goal against the run of play.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I think it’s over. MPs are already planning post politics careers. Farage is circling. Honestly think there’s as much risk people get more pissed off and they bleed support to Reform and Lib Dem’s even more.
SkyBlueCharlie9
Well-Known Member
Tory p****s need major help. ReesMogg or maybe Farage for Leader would be radical.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I didn’t say they will. I said they should because each day they hang on doing nothing the country deteriorates a bit more.
To borrow your analogy the taxi has been parked outside No 10 for over a year.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Radical is exactly what’s got them where they are. They need to get back to trying to win.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
so that pivot on "green crap" after uxbridge worked a treat
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Party of cranks, racists, and NIMBYs and the cranks and racists are starting to leave for Reform.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I'm no political expert clearly, but I've a hunch that telling people who are struggling to feed their kids they can fuck off probably isn't a vote winner.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Best thing Sunak can do for his party is pull the trigger for a GE in May at the latest. It must be clear to even the Tories that the longer they put it off the worse it will be for them. The longer they stay on the more they’ll piss off voters. It’s clear that the country wants change and the longer he leaves it the more the electorate will punish the Tories.
As for getting rid of Sunak and giving someone else a go. Who? Sunak really is the best they’ve got to offer following the 2019 purge and the moronic 2019 intake. Who ever they bring in will just exacerbate the situation further.
As for getting rid of Sunak and giving someone else a go. Who? Sunak really is the best they’ve got to offer following the 2019 purge and the moronic 2019 intake. Who ever they bring in will just exacerbate the situation further.
Otis
Well-Known Member
I have been out of this thread for a long period of time, but thought I would just have a mooch today
The way I see it is that not many people want Labour in, but pretty much everybody wants the Tories out and Labour are reaping the rewards of that, because the Lib Dems are just not taken seriously.
The way I see it is that not many people want Labour in, but pretty much everybody wants the Tories out and Labour are reaping the rewards of that, because the Lib Dems are just not taken seriously.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Hard to tell from the latest by-elections because turnout wasn’t great but Labour didn’t gain a fat lot of votes from 2019, the Tories lost shed loads though. Hard to know how that will transfer at a GE with what you imagine would be a higher turnout but it certainly backs up what you say. 2019 Tory voters, especially new Tory voters have probably been letdown more by the government they voted in than any other voter in history.
So I think you’re right. A lot of people just won’t bother voting and all the signs are that will hit the Tories hard. To the point that Labour won’t even have to pick up much of the Tory vote. Can see the next GE being one of the lowest in history.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
The problem is for Labour is how do they grow a voter base in what will be a difficult first term, especially with their lack of ambition. On the other hand they might just get to the right point in the economic cycle (not sure how with real incomes so strained) to get through unscathed.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Apparently the turn outs for these by elections mirror those of Blairs Labour when they were in opposition.
Tories not turning out rather than Labour increasing their vote but obviously that translated in to a GE victory.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
In what way is it Tories not turning out rather than Labour increasing their vote? It was a record swing!
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
As far as the economic cycle is concerned the Tories clearly aren’t capable of changing the cycle so it’s hard to see how Labour can’t take control and not generate some new management bounce, unless there’s another shock around the corner like WW3. I personally can’t help but feel that just the change of government should be enough to trigger not necessarily a boom but some stability that a boom could be built from. A lot of the bullshit that’s dominated politics since 2016 should largely be behind us. Any tweaks to the B word I think the majority will welcome amongst the majority of the public given hardly anyone thinks it was a good idea anymore. The fear of a return of Truss or some Tory equally economically illiterate will be gone. Starmer essentially has something the Tories can’t have, a clean slate. If he fucks it up so bad that nothing at all improves for your average joe by even the smallest of margins then fuck knows what that will mean at the next GE because the Tories seem to be in a loop of getting more and more ridiculous and going by the Tory party conference they seem to think that the answer is to get even more ridiculous again. In fact now I think about it Starmer is going to have to majorly fuck it up to not get a second term.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
The traditional approach is you go relatively conservative (small c) first term, then go bolder in the second. Didn't really happen with Blair, mind - his second term's a lost opportunity.
If you can get to a point where you can say look how we've managed the economy, now we can be a bit more progressive and you can trust us to do it properly and it sounds convincing, then you might well be able to pull it off.
And *surely* they have to try and fix health and education, and it's not unreasonable to suggest that needs more than one term to do properly. The main thing is I get more depressed about how self-centred people seem to be nowadays (am hoping it's just an age vs perception thing!) and as long as they're not sick or need anything, then it's I'm alright Jack nowadays so who cares if it all goes to shit!
If you can get to a point where you can say look how we've managed the economy, now we can be a bit more progressive and you can trust us to do it properly and it sounds convincing, then you might well be able to pull it off.
And *surely* they have to try and fix health and education, and it's not unreasonable to suggest that needs more than one term to do properly. The main thing is I get more depressed about how self-centred people seem to be nowadays (am hoping it's just an age vs perception thing!) and as long as they're not sick or need anything, then it's I'm alright Jack nowadays so who cares if it all goes to shit!
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Which flatters to deceive. Look at Dorries old seat. Labour gained 156 votes. If the Tories hadn’t lost 26,000 votes no way Labour would have won. Turnout was about 44%, not sure what it was in that seat in 2019 but I recon Labour will struggle to hold it at the next GE even if turnout goes up a few percent.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
You do wonder what effect a by-election nearly 4 years into a parliament has on voters? It's an almost free hit when compared to the GE.
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David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Anyone done a study of who people who voted yesterday voted for in 2019?
These two by elections are utterly disastrous for the Tories.
And they'll learn nothing, and continue to chase the lunatic few % Reform votes rather than the huge numbers they've lost to Labour and Lub dems.
They are going to get utterly destroyed at the GE. So many turbo cunts are going to lose their seat and I for one cannot wait.
And they'll learn nothing, and continue to chase the lunatic few % Reform votes rather than the huge numbers they've lost to Labour and Lub dems.
They are going to get utterly destroyed at the GE. So many turbo cunts are going to lose their seat and I for one cannot wait.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Why would only Tories stay home? Why are you comparing by election vote count to a GE? It’s bizarre.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
A reporter on 5live said Labour got the same vote as last time, (in Tamworth).
I've not looked it up but that's what it said and compared it to what happened prior to Blair winning his first election. The bit about Blair was a quote from John Custice or whoever the polling guru is.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yes last time was a GE with a much higher turnout. So to get the same vote is an impressive achievement as it means you got significantly more of the vote.
This is Tory cope nonsense.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Fuck me, I'm merely repeating what they said on 5live breakfast.
Calm down Shmmeer Starmer!
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Take it up with the bbc!!It is though! Sorry if reality has a Starmer bias
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Tee hee hee
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
What else is there to compare it too? And isn’t that exactly what you’re doing getting excited over the record swing?
The point is it’s very easy to get carried away going by the swing in isolation. There’s more data than that and it paints a don’t be complacent picture. Taking by-election results and thinking you have that seat in the bag at the next GE rarely works. Comparing the by-election results to the next GE results will be the true test.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
The point is that turnout affects the party with momentum more. By elections are usually fought by the die hards not those who tune into politics once every five years. This showed an energise Labour core, a defeated Tory core, and doesn’t even include the huge number of Con>Lab switchers you’re likely to see at the GE.
The polls will close, Sunak would have to be the worst politician of all time for them not to, but pretending “the Labour vote stayed home” is Tory cope not supported by any psephologists.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
They'll be using the time to add as many roadblocks to potential Labour policy as possible so they can say how ineffective they are if/when they come into power.
Actions of c*nts, but who'd expect anything less?
