Grendel
Well-Known Member
No but it’s nonsense to believe a government will slit its own throat also of course the Corbyn administration proposed Johnson up when they thought they’d lose
Both he and Brown messed up not going earlier - one thing Johnson got right.
Not exactly the same atm mind you, not much incentive to go to the country!
The actually childish view is to hold onto power despite having no interest in using it to help the country.
Only thing Sunak can do atm is cross his fingers things get better and / or Labour score a terrible own goal against the run of play.No but it’s nonsense to believe a government will slit its own throat also of course the Corbyn administration proposed Johnson up when they thought they’d lose
Only thing Sunak can do atm is cross his fingers things get better and / or Labour score a terrible own goal against the run of play.
I didn’t say they will. I said they should because each day they hang on doing nothing the country deteriorates a bit more.No but it’s nonsense to believe a government will slit its own throat also of course the Corbyn administration proposed Johnson up when they thought they’d lose
Tory p****s need major help. ReesMogg or maybe Farage for Leader would be radical.
so that pivot on "green crap" after uxbridge worked a treat
so that pivot on "green crap" after uxbridge worked a treat
Hard to tell from the latest by-elections because turnout wasn’t great but Labour didn’t gain a fat lot of votes from 2019, the Tories lost shed loads though. Hard to know how that will transfer at a GE with what you imagine would be a higher turnout but it certainly backs up what you say. 2019 Tory voters, especially new Tory voters have probably been letdown more by the government they voted in than any other voter in history.I have been out if this thread for a long period of time, but thought I would just have a mooch today
The way I see it is that not many people want Labour in, but pretty much everybody wants the Tories out and Labour are reaping the rewards of that, because the Lib Dems are just not taken seriously.
Hard to tell from the latest by-elections because turnout wasn’t great but Labour didn’t gain a fat lot of votes from 2019, the Tories lost shed loads though. Hard to know how that will transfer at a GE with what you imagine would be a higher turnout but it certainly backs up what you say. 2019 Tory voters, especially new Tory voters have probably been letdown more by the government they voted in than any other voter in history.
So I think you’re right. A lot of people just won’t bother voting and all the signs are that will hit the Tories hard. To the point that Labour won’t even have to pick up much of the Tory vote. Can see the next GE being one of the lowest in history.
Hard to tell from the latest by-elections because turnout wasn’t great but Labour didn’t gain a fat lot of votes from 2019, the Tories lost shed loads though. Hard to know how that will transfer at a GE with what you imagine would be a higher turnout but it certainly backs up what you say. 2019 Tory voters, especially new Tory voters have probably been letdown more by the government they voted in than any other voter in history.
So I think you’re right. A lot of people just won’t bother voting and all the signs are that will hit the Tories hard. To the point that Labour won’t even have to pick up much of the Tory vote. Can see the next GE being one of the lowest in history.
I'm no political expert clearly, but I've a hunch that telling people who are struggling to feed their kids they can fuck off probably isn't a vote winner.
Apparently the turn outs for these by elections mirror those of Blairs Labour when they were in opposition.
Tories not turning out rather than Labour increasing their vote but obviously that translated in to a GE victory.
As far as the economic cycle is concerned the Tories clearly aren’t capable of changing the cycle so it’s hard to see how Labour can’t take control and not generate some new management bounce, unless there’s another shock around the corner like WW3. I personally can’t help but feel that just the change of government should be enough to trigger not necessarily a boom but some stability that a boom could be built from. A lot of the bullshit that’s dominated politics since 2016 should largely be behind us. Any tweaks to the B word I think the majority will welcome amongst the majority of the public given hardly anyone thinks it was a good idea anymore. The fear of a return of Truss or some Tory equally economically illiterate will be gone. Starmer essentially has something the Tories can’t have, a clean slate. If he fucks it up so bad that nothing at all improves for your average joe by even the smallest of margins then fuck knows what that will mean at the next GE because the Tories seem to be in a loop of getting more and more ridiculous and going by the Tory party conference they seem to think that the answer is to get even more ridiculous again. In fact now I think about it Starmer is going to have to majorly fuck it up to not get a second term.The problem is for Labour is how do they grow a voter base in what will be a difficult first term, especially with their lack of ambition. On the other hand they might just get to the right point in the economic cycle (not sure how with real incomes so strained) to get through unscathed.
Which flatters to deceive. Look at Dorries old seat. Labour gained 156 votes. If the Tories hadn’t lost 26,000 votes no way Labour would have won. Turnout was about 44%, not sure what it was in that seat in 2019 but I recon Labour will struggle to hold it at the next GE even if turnout goes up a few percent.In what way is it Tories not turning out rather than Labour increasing their vote? It was a record swing!
You do wonder what effect a by-election nearly 4 years into a parliament has on voters? It's an almost free hit when compared to the GE.Which flatters to deceive. Look at Dorries old seat. Labour gained 156 votes. If the Tories hadn’t lost 26,000 votes no way Labour would have won. Turnout was about 44%, not sure what it was in that seat in 2019 but I recon Labour will struggle to hold it at the next GE even if turnout goes up a few percent.
Anyone done a study of who people who voted yesterday voted for in 2019?Which flatters to deceive. Look at Dorries old seat. Labour gained 156 votes. If the Tories hadn’t lost 26,000 votes no way Labour would have won. Turnout was about 44%, not sure what it was in that seat in 2019 but I recon Labour will struggle to hold it at the next GE even if turnout goes up a few percent.
Which flatters to deceive. Look at Dorries old seat. Labour gained 156 votes. If the Tories hadn’t lost 26,000 votes no way Labour would have won. Turnout was about 44%, not sure what it was in that seat in 2019 but I recon Labour will struggle to hold it at the next GE even if turnout goes up a few percent.
In what way is it Tories not turning out rather than Labour increasing their vote? It was a record swing!
A reporter on 5live said Labour got the same vote as last time, (in Tamworth).
I've not looked it up but that's what it said and compared it to what happened prior to Blair winning his first election. The bit about Blair was a quote from John Custice or whoever the polling guru is.
Yes last time was a GE with a much higher turnout. So to get the same vote is an impressive achievement as it means you got significantly more of the vote.
This is Tory cope nonsense.
Fuck me, I'm merely repeating what they said on 5live breakfast.
Calm down Shmmeer Starmer!
Take it up with the bbc!!It is though! Sorry if reality has a Starmer bias
What else is there to compare it too? And isn’t that exactly what you’re doing getting excited over the record swing?Why would only Tories stay home? Why are you comparing by election vote count to a GE? It’s bizarre.
What else is there to compare it too? And isn’t that exactly what you’re doing getting excited over the record swing?
The point is it’s very easy to get carried away going by the swing in isolation. There’s more data than that and it paints a don’t be complacent picture. Taking by-election results and thinking you have that seat in the bag at the next GE rarely works. Comparing the by-election results to the next GE results will be the true test.
They'll be using the time to add as many roadblocks to potential Labour policy as possible so they can say how ineffective they are if/when they come into power.They will take the opportunity to pillage what they can, not sure there is likely to even be a big fight over it. Every man for himself.
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Rishi Sunak's answer to the byelections, is to give tax break to the 5% top earners.
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