Middle Eastern armed conflicts involving Israel inevitably produce outpourings of cliché and muddled thinking: talk of “cycles of violence”, calls for both sides to “exercise restraint” and for immediate ceasefires. Most convey no more than virtue-signalling moral equivalence.
Allegedly improper
evictions of Arab tenants in East Jerusalem did not cause Hamas’s recent missile and drone attacks against Israel, nor did “longstanding historical grievances”, nor “frustration and alienation,” nor “the Arab street”. All these together cannot justify terrorism against innocent civilians, let alone the roughly 1,500 missiles launched into Israel from the Gaza Strip. Hamas, and now perhaps Hezbollah (missiles were recently fired from Lebanon) knew that their aggression would prompt vigorous Israeli retaliation.
More is at stake.
Iran and its terrorist surrogates concluded that this was a propitious moment to go for Israel’s throat. Why, and why now?
Tehran desperately wants relief from the economic sanctions imposed by Washington after US withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Chaos in Israel suits its purposes. Hamas, hoping to eclipse the Palestinian National Authority as the main Arab voice in Gaza and the West Bank, had its own reasons to follow Iran’s lead.
Israel is currently seized by unprecedented political gridlock. Even if Benjamin Netanyahu were rejected as prime minister, no potential successor could afford to be less hard-line on Iran than he. So while Israeli parties that appeal to Arab voters might have benefited in the near term by supporting a new Israeli government, the interests of Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah are better served by continued turmoil.
In fact, the hostilities may have ended deal-making on a possible new Israeli coalition. Significant violence between Arabs and Jews inside Israel itself could mean long-term instability, which only benefits terrorists and radicals across the Middle East. Breakthroughs like the Emirati and Bahraini diplomatic recognition of Israel are now highly unlikely for the foreseeable future – another win for Iran. And while Israel is preoccupied, Iran is likely planning more clandestine shipments of weapons and supplies to Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Viewing America’s return to the nuclear deal in near-theological terms,
President Biden feels pressured by Iran’s impending June elections. Iran sees that he faces major domestic political problems caused by vehement opposition from Israel and Gulf Arabs to any lessening of US pressure on Tehran. Distracting Jerusalem reduces its ability to influence Washington in these nuclear negotiations.
Whether Iran instigated the current conflict, or merely aggravated it, we do not yet know, but the consequences are the same regardless. How should Israel and the wider West respond?
Negotiations are not the answer. Israel, justified by its right to self-defence, would be wiser to eliminate Hamas as a military force now, once and for all. It had a similar opportunity to destroy Hezbollah during the 2006 Lebanon War, which was indeed Israel’s declared objective. Failing to follow through, however, left Hezbollah the dominant force in Lebanon, and allowed Iran to expand its presence in Syria. Hezbollah is a greater threat today than 15 years ago. Israel should not ignore this lesson.
Moreover, what is the value of negotiated commitments from terrorists? In his fireside chat of December 29 1940, best known for describing America as “the arsenal of democracy”, President Franklin D Roosevelt said: “No man can tame a tiger into a kitten by stroking it. There can be no appeasement with ruthlessness. There can be no reasoning with an incendiary bomb.” Some things never change.
Negotiations with overzealous enemies only make sense when they are one-way. In the American Civil War, General Ulysses S Grant’s initials were said to stand for “unconditional surrender”, his trademark demand of defeated Confederate forces. And that was against fellow Americans. Israel can negotiate details of a Hamas surrender, but not whether there will in fact be one.
Iran and Hamas crossed a red line this time. Israel knows what it must do.
John Bolton is a former US national security adviser