I think that TM & MV have to maximise all their options to create adequate cash flow to put a first team on the pitch. The short term fix to quality needed is probably to buy in. TM quite likely knows he doesn't have much time to turn it around so the current emphasis on buying in. Managers do not stay at clubs long and a successful Academy is probably the domain of the directors/owners to fund and promote as it is more long term. That is not to say that the manager and his team do not have input into the Academy but it is not their decision to keep it or not. Take TM at his word and he backs the Academy. He is trying to balance both Academy & buy in and the emphasis will change to suit the timing. That to me is what is going on, but it is naiive to think there are not alternatives (even if they are not so "productive")
That like it or not, is where the number crunching then comes in - from London (JS has her right hand person on the SBS&L board). Not many would say the owners have a passion for the Sky Blues - it is a bad investment that SISU are trying scramble some return from or even just a face saving way out of. This is where the concern is for me - the number crunching. If you look at the costs of the Academy (net of grant) since SISU got here in 2008 until 31/05/15 it would be in the region of £4m cash spent. Against that there are the sales of ex academy players Belford, Grandison, Turner, Bigiramana, Wilson, Christie, J Clarke, & Daniels - the actual cash flow disclosed in the financials for them is in the region of £4.6m as far as I can work out.
Now I would not allocate all of the sales value cash received to the Academy, others seem to. I doubt the owner number crunchers do. There may have been some cash saved on lower wages - but you could argue you get what you pay for and it has helped put us where we are. Wage savings disappear once the first contract is renewed and who are we comparing it against to define this saving. Yes the sale of Maddison/Sambou is yet to be included - will be interesting to see how that turns out. The cash flows in are not even and the cash flows out are in large part set - that is where part of the problem as to retain or not is, there are potential for gaps in the cashflows. There is also pressure to begin paying debts down so any cash surplus on the sale of an academy player is not retained to fund future operations but covers current costs and repayments. So sell a player one year and you are probably back to square one in terms of funding the Academy the next year
Now if the owners in London are looking short term then the future of the Academy could be under real pressure because it costs an annual net £700k which could be used for other purposes. It doesn't matter what TM says, it wont affect his ability to buy in because he has a playing budget to work with (unless that is squeezed), the players he already has in U18, U21 etc can be retained and by time they need replacing TM could be long gone.
Should the academy fold because of the AHC situation that breaks a tie with the City, adds to grounds for claims of being forced out, provides potential evidence of lost finance. But none of that has anything to do with TM. Is there a good reason for it to fold at all in any case? Mentioned it earlier but are the statements of TM/MV/CA/TF for our benefit or to the owners?
TM like most managers wants the biggest pool of talent he can have - so he will back both methods of gaining value & players for a team. Doesn't mean he will get them and he may have put up with something not quite what he expected if the number crunching goes against the academy Cat 2. Its all about cash flow not profit
I still back having a Cat 2 academy having said all that
Now all of the above I agree with.
One question though when you state costs of the academy are you including the grants in the costs?
My concern is also a decision to keep an academy is what is best long term for the future of CCFC for many years to come.
We do not know if that priority matches that of the owners. Do they worry about what's best for CCFC in the long term future.
Or is their priority a break even figure, or what makes the club more of s saleable item.
I would hope the academy would be one of only two things at the moment that would tempt someone to takeover the club. That and the golden share.
For the first time in a very very long time. I feel we are finally returning to the only model that a club like this, without sugar daddy owners can survive on.
Sign the most promising talent from the divisions below. With a view of selling them on.
Develop your own talent with a view of filling the squad with them. When you unearth a gem try to maximise their sale value after they have given you a season or two of their skills.
Also pick up promising talent like Bigi, RCC and Turnbull who don't make it at the level above.
Unfortunately for TM football fans and owners are not known for their patience, even when things are starting to move in the right direction.
For me you won't see the fruits of this plan for another 2-3 years.
The status of the academy for me personally isn't a massive deal as long as we have one.