The maximum sentence for incitement to racial hatred is seven years – and official sentencing guidelines say the most serious cases should typically lead to between two and six years in jail.
But come October’s hearing in Birmingham, the sentencing judge will go through quite a complex exercise to decide Connolly’s level of “culpability”.
If the judge concludes that she intended to incite serious violence, she would be in the highest category of offenders. That would mean a starting point for the calculation of at least three years.
The judge will then consider the “harm” caused by her message to “set fire” to hotels. If the judge concludes it endangered life, that would only reinforce the seriousness.
The Crown Prosecution Service says Connolly posted racist messages months before the Southport attacks, as well as after. This is also likely to be a key factor.
The judge will then reduce whatever sentence they provisionally have in mind to take into account Connolly’s admission.
It’s worth bearing in mind what happened to Tyler Kay who reposted Connolly’s words.
The 26-year-old Northampton man received 38 months - and he pleaded guilty as soon as he could, thereby receiving the maximum one third discount.
Given his crime would not have occurred had it not been for Connnolly’s words, and Connolly did not plead guilty at her first hearing, it is hard to see how she could receive a shorter term than him.
However, there may be something exceptional in her personal consequences that, when presented to the court by her lawyer, requires a degree of judicial mercy.
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