It just suggests to me that the EU economy, though reportedly strong & we are missing out, is doing as well as it is because of unsustainable management that will end in more tears in the EU than other major trading blocksWhich is true, but doesn't just apply to the EU.
Because they want have their cake & eat it...then have yours & mine tooOr you are trying to make out that those who can see that we can't look after those already living here are racist.
Trying to work out why those who don't live in the UK or have a partner from outside the UK are the most vocal here.
Which in effect helps the rich get richer, & the rest can bog-off!France and - I know what you're going to say - Italy will stay in. And Holland. One of the problems before the Euro was Italy with it's constantly devaluing currency. Difficult to do business with them as you had to hedge your bets with the lira by buying or selling in advance- at a price.
The DM was over 60% of the weighting. It was wanted by countries like Italy as the DM was stable. Greece should never have been allowed in. That was political not rational. But the Euro could survive without Greece.
So how is that different to here? We have rising inflation and people borrowing on historically low interest rates. As we've discussed on here recently banks have paid no attention to the problems last time and are happily giving out 100% mortgages.
BoE have already said that interest rates will have to rise in the not too distant future then so what happens then? Mortgage costs go up, that will impact people already struggling due to wage suppression and inflation. Whats the difference when they start defaulting?
Don't you understand? The European Bank props up the euro by deflating its central borrower which is Germany. Germany has NEGATIVE interest rates - so you pay to put the money in. The reason is that the euro is reliant on rates being to the euro markets that are in collosal debt being low now that's the equivalent of the bank offering lenders interest free mortgages with no proof of earnings.
If interest rates rise it's not the odd individual that defaults but a whole country goes bankrupt over night. Worse still is three German banks have more than twenty percent debt exposure to Greece alone. If Greece or Portugal folds the reprecusssions would be catastrophic. There also is no legal mechanism to get out the euro either so when you mock the uk for not having though through brexit consider that. A bankrupt country defaulting on loans that the banker Germany is funding and no actual approved eu legislation to deal with the crises.
Already the loan rate to Greece is growing due to nervousness in the bond market. It's up to ten percent now from seven and that's before an increase in the interest rate. Portugal is at four percent and predictions of increases would mean more defaulting.
Yet you seem to equate this with some homeowners in the U.K.
Wow
What should be looked at is why people won't take those jobs. Often its down to pay and conditions. There was a chap on Radio 4 recently who had voted leave but was getting worried that his fruit farm would have to close if unskilled workers aren't let in. He said he'd only ever had one British employee and they left after a day.
Company I work for does some work for a chain of luxury spas. Virtually all their staff are from Eastern Europe. They get paid minimum wage then charged for accommodation which is of an appalling standard and work ridiculous hours with little objection as the spas are all out in the middle of nowhere and they can't afford transport to take them anywhere. Nobody British is going to do that, the Eastern Europeans only do it as it works out OK for sending money back home but its a miserable life and really shouldn't be allowed.
There's a whole society of minimum wage, zero hour contract workers, both British and European that earn so little they are basically homeless. Sofa surfing where they can. At the same time the corporations are saying they can't afford wage increases, despite making millions if not billions in profit, and that any increase will lead to increased prices.
None of that is to do with the EU and the problems won't magically disappear when we leave.
Obviously not or I wouldn't have asked for further explanation!Don't you understand?
Obviously not or I wouldn't have asked for further explanation!
Isn't what you're saying based on an assumption that an EU country, be it Greece or anyone else, would be allowed to go bust? If thats the case why not let that happen in the first place?
You also seem to be saying that a significant number of people defaulting on their mortgages will not cause any financial issues to the country as a whole but isn't this exactly what has happened in the past?
Think this is the bit I don't get. Country A owes x to country B.They would have to allow it as the point is the country defaults on its payments. They can't actually stop it it's a natural process
Grendel is saying you can't stop the country defaulting but aren't you describing a situation where you do exactly that? Greece can't afford the payments so rather than run the risk of the damage caused by them defaulting other countries prop them up. What has changed now that makes this no longer possible?If Greece goes bankrupt the whole lot goes bang hence why they keep getting more money and more bailouts they cant afford them to go bang
They would have to allow it as the point is the country defaults on its payments. They can't actually stop it it's a natural process as even Martcov acknowledged and accepts is an inevitability.
A significant number won't default as many are on fixed terms and unlike the euro we have an independent system. We won't have any real rises at all in the next 12 months. Even if we did the impact would be minimal. 2008 occurred due to issues totally different to what you describe.
Think this is the bit I don't get. Country A owes x to country B.
B can't afford to pay A and if they default the whole of the EU economy goes in to meltdown.
Why can't A restructure the debt or write it off or subsidise it to prevent this catastrophic economic collapse?
In my mind, although from what you are saying clearly incorrectly, I would have thought you would be more likely to take steps to prevent the entire EU economy collapsing than you would a potential recession in one country caused by mortgage defaults.
Grendel is saying you can't stop the country defaulting but aren't you describing a situation where you do exactly that? Greece can't afford the payments so rather than run the risk of the damage caused by them defaulting other countries prop them up. What has changed now that makes this no longer possible?
Not it isn't. Brexit is just one factor in the value of the pound.No, it is dependent on how Brexit pans out..., so not exactly fine..
Not it isn't. Brexit is just one factor in the value of the pound.
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There is no more money to give them. Greece would be much better served by defaulting on their payments letting the banks go bust and then adapting the drachma and starting again. Yes it would be tough and bad to start with but after 2-3 years you are a lot better off than before. That's exactly what they are. Trapped. Trapped in a currency it never should of joined and as mentioned how do you escape it? You can't.
You assume that after 2 or 3 years they would be a lot better off. Bit of a gamble though.
I agree it's a big gamble but what's the alternative?
Well some on here think that Germany and France would lose out if Greece were to fail.... so I think they - the creditors - will restructure or the governments will bail Greece out for the foreseeable future...
I still think we should divide the country 52/48% and see who does better. Perhaps Brexit Britain could ally itself with North Korea?
Short term the 48 win. Long term the 52 win.
Based on what? Serious question.
A couple of countries are doing very well being in the Euro. Several are not. Germany are benefiting massively.I accept the possibility of Greece leaving - not the inevitability. As Chiefdave says, we are not at the point where we have to let Greece go bust. The Eurozone is doing better. Germany is doing great and they won't want the Euro to collapse. If necessary they wil restructure the debts. I am thinking of selling property as no one can afford to pay for flats in places like Hamburg or Berlin - property prices will come down because of new builds or an interest hike making credit too expensive- or both.
How can someone be doing great when their people can't afford somewhere to live?I accept the possibility of Greece leaving - not the inevitability. As Chiefdave says, we are not at the point where we have to let Greece go bust. The Eurozone is doing better. Germany is doing great and they won't want the Euro to collapse. If necessary they wil restructure the debts. I am thinking of selling property as no one can afford to pay for flats in places like Hamburg or Berlin - property prices will come down because of new builds or an interest hike making credit too expensive- or both.
How can someone be doing great when their people can't afford somewhere to live?
A couple of countries are doing very well being in the Euro. Several are not. Germany are benefiting massively.
The Greek people are certainly not. Even their pensions got massively reduced. The EU wants austerity for each bailout. They have nothing else to give. But the EU will want more when another is needed.
So what is wrong with affordable housing for all instead of trying to use it as a go for what is right with the EU....when a lot of it is to do with the faults of the EU.What do you prefer: everyone broke and cheap accommodation? Or a booming economy withe expensive accommodation? Plus house prices are massively different according to where you live.
And I thought you knew about the EU and the Euro. So I was wrong.The German's have a tax system where the taxes get collected. Plus they have had a tighter monetary policy for years. They have a different attitude to money probably because of their experience with hyper inflation. Greece saw things a bit differently and blew it. They were not used to the restraints of being in the euro and should not have been allowed to get into this mess.. not an evil conspiracy- just very bad lending and mainly done before the crash when everything was Honky dory.
And I thought you knew about the EU and the Euro. So I was wrong.
So what is wrong with affordable housing for all instead of trying to use it as a go for what is right with the EU....when a lot of it is to do with the faults of the EU.
You don't think they will become a German annex do you? France gets ROI...Italy get Slovenia & Spain gets Portugal?A couple of countries are doing very well being in the Euro. Several are not. Germany are benefiting massively.
The Greek people are certainly not. Even their pensions got massively reduced. The EU wants austerity for each bailout. They have nothing else to give. But the EU will want more when another is needed.
Hang on...are we talking Greece here or the UK?How can someone be doing great when their people can't afford somewhere to live?
Personally I prefer one that keeps a lid on profiteering at the expense of the masses. There is absolutely no reason that house prices should be only affordable by the wealthy who then rent them at exorbitant rates to people that cannot save enough for a deposit to get a motgageWhat do you prefer: everyone broke and cheap accommodation? Or a booming economy withe expensive accommodation? Plus house prices are massively different according to where you live.
So would you like to explain how countries like Greece would devalue their currency when needed? Oh no. They can't. They are coupled with Germany. And that is why they will always be in trouble while in the Euro. And they are.not alone.If you say so....
The German's have a tax system where the taxes get collected. Plus they have had a tighter monetary policy for years. They have a different attitude to money probably because of their experience with hyper inflation. Greece saw things a bit differently and blew it. They were not used to the restraints of being in the euro and should not have been allowed to get into this mess.. not an evil conspiracy- just very bad lending and mainly done before the crash when everything was Honky dory.
Seriously what are you on about? German rates are being suppressed as the euro is dependant on Germany. The reason is Germany is the solid base which allows other countries to bear low interest loans.
Inflation in Germany is over 2% so by natural law the bank would run a rate higher than now. Three banks have significant loans relying on Greece. At some point rates have to rises and then Greece and Portugal will fall.
It's nothing to do with German frugalness but the realisation that as soon as Greece and Portugal go - and they will in the next few years go - the project collapses
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