Just my opinion/thoughts .........
Let me say from the off I was not in favour of leaving but we have what we have and we now need to make the best of it.
The vote was democratic and there is no exam passed to get the right to vote, no need to prove you understand or have even heard the arguments, people are entitled to vote or not which ever way they choose and do not have to have or give any justification. So we must, even if the Brexit does take two years, start now to get a grip on things, make some decisions, face up to what is to come be it good or bad. We badly need strong leadership.
I am far from convinced at this time that the best of it will, any time soon, be in the general sense equal to where we were say last month. Yes shares/sterling go up and down, right now the immediate trend is down, the uncertainty will continue and that will damage the economy short to medium term. Trouble with that is that damage happens quickly and recovery is far, far slower. Damage in 2016 could take a decade to recover. But it wont be damage just in 2016 it will most probably be 2017 and 2018..... it could have a snowball effect. ( as could the recovery many seem to think we will get)
Business is going to be affected, whether we end up being more attractive as a European base or not, business investors will look at the uncertainty, the down grade in credit ratings, the trading arrangements we eventually end up with and be very wary of UK PLC. Two years might not seem too long but it is enough time to tempt investment elsewhere. As much as people argue this is opportunity for the UK, other countries will also see various opportunities to benefit them from Brexit. We don't know it wont end up for the best but I think there will be hardening attitudes towards the British problem from within the EU. Lets face it we were never a popular nation in the EU in the first place.
The EU will off course band together, will have a convenient scape goat, will need to show it doesn't pay to leave. Yes they want to trade with us and vice versa but can you really see Germany and France etc putting the EU at risk just to be amicable with the UK on its exit? They weren't that amicable when we were in it. Yes we are a good market for them but it works both ways, there are choices - and we are vulnerable not just from the EU. They have a 10billion deficit in cash flow to breach for starters
Yes the EU will still want to trade with the UK of course they will but it will involve EU regulation. Products etc they peddle will be to EU rules and the items we sell to them will be to EU rules. If we are part of the single market then the EU are going to insist on freedom of movement I believe that will mean "promises" being broken. Always puzzled me the immigration argument, something like 50% of the immigration has nothing to do with the EU yet something we could control we never did anything about.
My own position is I do not see immigration as the threat it was made out to be and I am inclined to believe it brought more benefit than harm (thinking NHS, or the lower paid jobs that no one else would do but are necessary to make our society tick etc). A lot of good decent people have been blamed for something that is far deeper than immigration targets. I know it is only a small minority but the abuse given out towards non brits recently makes me angry and ashamed to be English. It should never be about the colour of the skin or the language they speak
Which way will interests rates go. going to be a tricky decision for the bank of England. The one thing I am pleased about is that it is independent of sorts and generally a steady hand against political expediency
The two years, we continue to pay 10 billion per year till we leave but have no real voice in the EU. Outside looking in from a very expensive seat. It could of course be worth it. How will that effect the possibility of new schemes or schemes to be started?
Also this notion that appears in places that all EU related law will be deleted - why? Some of it is very good law and has benefited many of our nation. I hope we are a bit more discriminating in the law we have or keep.
People say we should have confidence, look forward to a bright future, confidence in what? there is no plan, Brexit are referendum winners not a party in power, there is no strong leadership on either side of the political divide. What I am not saying is that it should all be doom and gloom but right now and for the next two and a bit years there is uncertainty and damage being done to the UK on many levels not just economically that is going to take years to recover from
People tend to brush past the fact that Brexit are not a party of government, that promises were perceived to be made. What happens when the electorate, especially the Brexit voters, discover that some of the slogans simply cannot be delivered. Will the result of this be social upheaval and further division?
Do I see this as the potential breakup of the UK - yes sadly I do. I think the probability is that Scotland will go its own way, not because the economics make sense for Scotland but because there is a growing unity of opinion there. Have to say the only leader (or potential leader) I have been impressed with is Nicola Sturgeon, a very accomplished politician with a clear sense of direction.
Watching the Brexit guys back peddling, the in fighting in both major parties, the name calling and finger pointing going on, the lack of direction or plan does make me wonder where our society is heading. Tolerance, and I do not just highlight race in saying it, seems to have been overshadowed by self interest, anger and lack of personal responsibility. Perhaps I am showing my age but then you look at the sound bites of intolerance and many of those are from my age group and above. As my son said when discussing with an OAP "this is my future and you will be gone long before I am"
The press. As much as the MP's have made a complete pigs ear of all this the British press have much to answer for. Some of the headlines were frankly shameful, but more than that the inability, or should it be the lack of desire, to challenge what has been said or done highlights the reason why you should never take what is said at face value.
The best I can say is that the future is now much more uncertain than it was, we as a nation are out of not only the EU but out side our comfort zone. I hope Brexit and their 17m voters got it right but only the next 10 to 20 years will really tell. Still left with the feeling that things were going alright making steady progress but we have taken two steps back - at least for now. Still not convinced this was the right way to go - but accept it is done
I suggest we get on and make the best of it, maximise what is available to us....... whatever that might be. I am for the most part very proud to be British but I do like being European too
just my opinion ..... I know many wont agree, but its how I see it
