The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (130 Viewers)

clint van damme said:

that's my point, we have to trigger article 50. Cameron said he would do it immediately in the event of a leave vote, he reneged on this. Boris, (or some other prominent leaver), should have anticipated this could happen, that they didn't is quite worrying.
If they can't 2nd guess a spurned David Cameron they're going to get ring run round them in Brussels.
Basically, Boris wanted his main opponent in the referendum to do the post referendum dirty work for him and now seems shocked that he won't.

Click to expand...

It's strange that Boris isn't shouting it all over the media that he wants article 50 triggering now.

It's almost as if he didn't actually want to leave in the first place and he was just using the leave campaign as an election campaign to rally support from the back bencher's ready for when David Cameron was expected to leave at the end of this term of parliament.

Boris has pretty much said this morning that we're leaving the EU and Joining the EEA.

"EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI - the BDI - has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market.

"The only change - and it will not come in any great rush - is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU's extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal."

His rhetoric about taking control of our borders before the vote has now completely changed. He's conned people into voting leave. Something I have to admit I'm actually finding quite funny.

Full story here.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

dutchman said:

I wouldn't totally disagree with Andrew Marr's analysis but would point out that Coventry is a relatively prosperous, youthful, well-educated city but still voted by 55.6%-44.4% to leave.

Click to expand...

Lol.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

I'm thinking about starting a joke off about a 20 or 50p coin being a pound. I haven't seen or heard any yet.

dutchman said:

I wouldn't totally disagree with Andrew Marr's analysis but would point out that Coventry is a relatively prosperous, youthful, well-educated city but still voted by 55.6%-44.4% to leave.

Click to expand...

It is also the city of rugby

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk

martcov said:

We're doing great. Prefer earning in Euro at the moment. We have 0,00 borrowing the last 2 years and Even had a surplus which wie are using to feed and house the refugees. How is the pound doing btw?

Click to expand...

I realise that you are pro-EU and live and work in Germany and it's clear from your posts that you are getting enormous pleasure watching the turmoil here in the UK following the Leave vote.

I have to say that I can't stand whingers who knock our great country and I find your continual bleating very tiresome.

However I would also point out that your gloating is misplaced.

Do you not realise that Brexit is a much bigger threat to your beloved EU than it is to the UK? The markets confirm it and the panic within the bumbling EU leaders confirms it.

The fact is the EU needs the UK more that the UK needs the EU.

Go ahead and fantasise about the UK breaking up but I suspect you will discover that the EU crumbles around your ears long before the UK does.

Have a great day.

I see the pound is taking another battering today and some shares have had to stop trading as they were loosing so much value

Johnnythespider said:

It is also the city of rugby

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk

Click to expand...

:sorry: No Rugby is Town down the M6, A428 or A45.:eggonface: (was trying to find "I'll get my coat" emo)

Liquid Gold said:

I see the pound is taking another battering today and some shares have had to stop trading as they were loosing so much value

Click to expand...

This is usual when a share goes up or down by 8% IIRC. They then carry on trading 5 minutes later. If it is the banks that are going down then it isn't a surprise. They have been in a bad shape for years now.

Don't worry about RBS the clue is in the name when they break away they can have it back.

Just my opinion/thoughts .........

Let me say from the off I was not in favour of leaving but we have what we have and we now need to make the best of it.

The vote was democratic and there is no exam passed to get the right to vote, no need to prove you understand or have even heard the arguments, people are entitled to vote or not which ever way they choose and do not have to have or give any justification. So we must, even if the Brexit does take two years, start now to get a grip on things, make some decisions, face up to what is to come be it good or bad. We badly need strong leadership.

I am far from convinced at this time that the best of it will, any time soon, be in the general sense equal to where we were say last month. Yes shares/sterling go up and down, right now the immediate trend is down, the uncertainty will continue and that will damage the economy short to medium term. Trouble with that is that damage happens quickly and recovery is far, far slower. Damage in 2016 could take a decade to recover. But it wont be damage just in 2016 it will most probably be 2017 and 2018..... it could have a snowball effect. ( as could the recovery many seem to think we will get)

Business is going to be affected, whether we end up being more attractive as a European base or not, business investors will look at the uncertainty, the down grade in credit ratings, the trading arrangements we eventually end up with and be very wary of UK PLC. Two years might not seem too long but it is enough time to tempt investment elsewhere. As much as people argue this is opportunity for the UK, other countries will also see various opportunities to benefit them from Brexit. We don't know it wont end up for the best but I think there will be hardening attitudes towards the British problem from within the EU. Lets face it we were never a popular nation in the EU in the first place.

The EU will off course band together, will have a convenient scape goat, will need to show it doesn't pay to leave. Yes they want to trade with us and vice versa but can you really see Germany and France etc putting the EU at risk just to be amicable with the UK on its exit? They weren't that amicable when we were in it. Yes we are a good market for them but it works both ways, there are choices - and we are vulnerable not just from the EU. They have a 10billion deficit in cash flow to breach for starters

Yes the EU will still want to trade with the UK of course they will but it will involve EU regulation. Products etc they peddle will be to EU rules and the items we sell to them will be to EU rules. If we are part of the single market then the EU are going to insist on freedom of movement I believe that will mean "promises" being broken. Always puzzled me the immigration argument, something like 50% of the immigration has nothing to do with the EU yet something we could control we never did anything about.

My own position is I do not see immigration as the threat it was made out to be and I am inclined to believe it brought more benefit than harm (thinking NHS, or the lower paid jobs that no one else would do but are necessary to make our society tick etc). A lot of good decent people have been blamed for something that is far deeper than immigration targets. I know it is only a small minority but the abuse given out towards non brits recently makes me angry and ashamed to be English. It should never be about the colour of the skin or the language they speak

Which way will interests rates go. going to be a tricky decision for the bank of England. The one thing I am pleased about is that it is independent of sorts and generally a steady hand against political expediency

The two years, we continue to pay 10 billion per year till we leave but have no real voice in the EU. Outside looking in from a very expensive seat. It could of course be worth it. How will that effect the possibility of new schemes or schemes to be started?

Also this notion that appears in places that all EU related law will be deleted - why? Some of it is very good law and has benefited many of our nation. I hope we are a bit more discriminating in the law we have or keep.

People say we should have confidence, look forward to a bright future, confidence in what? there is no plan, Brexit are referendum winners not a party in power, there is no strong leadership on either side of the political divide. What I am not saying is that it should all be doom and gloom but right now and for the next two and a bit years there is uncertainty and damage being done to the UK on many levels not just economically that is going to take years to recover from

People tend to brush past the fact that Brexit are not a party of government, that promises were perceived to be made. What happens when the electorate, especially the Brexit voters, discover that some of the slogans simply cannot be delivered. Will the result of this be social upheaval and further division?

Do I see this as the potential breakup of the UK - yes sadly I do. I think the probability is that Scotland will go its own way, not because the economics make sense for Scotland but because there is a growing unity of opinion there. Have to say the only leader (or potential leader) I have been impressed with is Nicola Sturgeon, a very accomplished politician with a clear sense of direction.

Watching the Brexit guys back peddling, the in fighting in both major parties, the name calling and finger pointing going on, the lack of direction or plan does make me wonder where our society is heading. Tolerance, and I do not just highlight race in saying it, seems to have been overshadowed by self interest, anger and lack of personal responsibility. Perhaps I am showing my age but then you look at the sound bites of intolerance and many of those are from my age group and above. As my son said when discussing with an OAP "this is my future and you will be gone long before I am"

The press. As much as the MP's have made a complete pigs ear of all this the British press have much to answer for. Some of the headlines were frankly shameful, but more than that the inability, or should it be the lack of desire, to challenge what has been said or done highlights the reason why you should never take what is said at face value.

The best I can say is that the future is now much more uncertain than it was, we as a nation are out of not only the EU but out side our comfort zone. I hope Brexit and their 17m voters got it right but only the next 10 to 20 years will really tell. Still left with the feeling that things were going alright making steady progress but we have taken two steps back - at least for now. Still not convinced this was the right way to go - but accept it is done

I suggest we get on and make the best of it, maximise what is available to us....... whatever that might be. I am for the most part very proud to be British but I do like being European too

just my opinion ..... I know many wont agree, but its how I see it

But they weren't going right for millions were they or you wouldn't have had such resentment to the establishment. I don't want to get into that vote separation business but if you take out the Scottish and Northern Irish { Anti English votes } and those of London and some other inner Cities then you will find the disenchantment was with a bigger proportion of White English people than anyone really cares to want to admit. You can't just ignore 17 1/2 million angry people and pretend that their concerns are not important. The Remain campaign lost this vote for themselves, with above all their threats and ridicule of the 'Leave' issues and their obvious support from a twisted main stream media was nauseous. The EU themselves also lost this vote for 'Remain' because of the absolute arrogance and refusal to concede there were issues that needed addressing.
People are quick to criticise the 'Leave' leaders backtracking but I've heard some of the very stubborn bastards in the EU now talking about things like immigration being a concern etc.......well it's too late you Turkey's, it's boxing day and what's left of you will be in a curry by tea time !!

Got no problem with the vote. Both sides twisted things to suit, it worked (just) for Brexit, however Remain over egged it. Doesn't give me any comfort with either side to be honest.

Doesn't work to do voting separation the vote was and was intended for the UK

No you cant ignore the 17m but the disenchantment you refer to goes far deeper than immigration though, its an easy target. The lack of immigration control is clearly a problem as is the lack of understanding that immigration is necessary for our society to function. But there are deeper problems and disconnects. Anger can be useful, but not if it is un-channelled lashing out and looking for someone to blame. There are lot of good people going to waste but also a large number of expectant wasters, but they all need to be galvanised in to something positive. hugely difficult task.

But equally you cant ignore the 48% that voted Remain. Or the 24% of the voting population that felt so disenfranchised they would rather not have a say on the biggest voting decision in living memory

The one thing other than decide to leave, the referendum has done is to expose deep fractures in our society.

That is why strong leadership is necessary. Do you see any because I don't. So for the time being at least we are wallowing in a bog with no certainty of getting out

As for the EU, They needed to address issues certainly, failed to do so certainly, the worry might be that this is a catalyst for positive change and UK is the sacrifice worth making - none of us knows

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove didn't bother attending the commons for the EU statement and debate. What a pair of cretins

Scrap thah apparently Bojo was hiding behind the speakers chair, apparently scuttled off after the oprning exchanges. Still stand by the cretins comment

They're still debating, there's about 25 conservatives and 120+ opposition MPs. This is what pisses me off about politics, a huge issue and none of them are bothered to stick around. Happens all thr time

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

...

stupot07 said:

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove didn't bother attending the commons for the EU statement and debate. What a pair of cretins

Scrap thah apparently Bojo was hiding behind the speakers chair, apparently scuttled off after the oprning exchanges. Still stand by the cretins comment

They're still debating, there's about 25 conservatives and 120+ opposition MPs. This is what pisses me off about politics, a huge issue and none of them are bothered to stick around. Happens all thr time

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

Click to expand...

If they said what they were thinking it would damage their career.

skybluetony176 said:

It's strange that Boris isn't shouting it all over the media that he wants article 50 triggering now.

Click to expand...

See Boris has finally surfaced but rather than addressing the voters he chose to make his statement via his paid for column in the Telegraph. Was barely off the presses before the rest of Europe, and in particular Germany, were making it clear he had no chance of getting what he laid out.

The EU position seems to be firming to them wanting the UK out by the next round of elections. They are in 2019 so article 50 has to be invoked at some point this year. There has also been a lot of suggestion that while we are still officially an EU member and have to abide by the rules we will be frozen out of any talks from now on.

They've also said no informal talks will happen, if we want talks we have to invoke article 50 first.

The financial markets don't seem to have stabilised as much as was first thought. Sterling has dropped to a 31 year low against the dollar and Gilt yields fell to below 1% for the first time in history. FTSE 250 has had the biggest drops since 1987, lost 7% on Friday and another 7% today.

They need to get a grip and they need to do it soon.

We've just lost our AAA credit rating, now AA with a negative outlook.

chiefdave said:

We've just lost our AAA credit rating, now AA with a negative outlook.

Click to expand...

Can you stop the scaremongering please.

lewys33 said:

Can you stop the scaremongering please.

Click to expand...

Those pesky facts trying to make things look bad

chiefdave said:

Those pesky facts trying to make things look bad

Click to expand...

But after day 1 everything was fine??

chiefdave said:

See Boris has finally surfaced but rather than addressing the voters he chose to make his statement via his paid for column in the Telegraph. Was barely off the presses before the rest of Europe, and in particular Germany, were making it clear he had no chance of getting what he laid out.

The EU position seems to be firming to them wanting the UK out by the next round of elections. They are in 2019 so article 50 has to be invoked at some point this year. There has also been a lot of suggestion that while we are still officially an EU member and have to abide by the rules we will be frozen out of any talks from now on.

They've also said no informal talks will happen, if we want talks we have to invoke article 50 first.

The financial markets don't seem to have stabilised as much as was first thought. Sterling has dropped to a 31 year low against the dollar and Gilt yields fell to below 1% for the first time in history. FTSE 250 has had the biggest drops since 1987, lost 7% on Friday and another 7% today.

They need to get a grip and they need to do it soon.

Click to expand...

This is again where Boris has been very cunning. As far as I can understand what he's written in his column is one half of the deal that Norway has. The other half is basically a mirror. In other words what he's saying that British people will get from EU member states will also get from the UK. This is part of the deal that Norway and Iceland have in return for full access to the common market. They also still have to make a contribution I believe to the EU. Switzerland I believe have a slightly different deal that gives them partial access to the common market, I think this gives them more border control but still again they have to make a contribution to the EU. Having had a bit more time to research it there does seem to be more than one way to gain access to the common market and at different levels. Even Canada have a deal pretty much agreed for access into the common market in some form although I believe it's yet to be formalised.

But reading Boris's column, with the levels of access he seems to be hinting at to the common market and what he seems to be saying about people from the UK being able to still have free movement of the EU and being able to work, buy property etc. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that we're going to join the EEA as Norway etc. have.

I don't think he can come out and say that yet until he's won the Tory leadership campaign and is sitting in number 10 having possibly won an early election because I feel there's another Lib Dem student loan style backlash coming his way from the people who voted leave thinking that we'd have full control of our borders from the EU (that's the bit I find funny).

The shares in the banks and house builder's is a real worry as is the strength of the pound not only against the dollar but it also lost ground on the euro today. A lot of people were counting there chickens on Friday with the shares blissfully ignoring the fact that they only rallied when the statement came from the bank of England, the problem there being that the fact that the statement had to be made in the first place is a problem and crucially the bounce back didn't include banks and house builders. Many people were saying that the dip was a blip. This evening it's the bounce back that looks like like the blip although it is still to early to be sure either way. Let's see where we are at the end of the week.

As for the pound the same people who declared that the share dip was a blip also kept trying to tell me that the pound had recovered sighting it's strength against the euro. The euro for the most part doesn't count. It's the dollar that's important. The cost off everything is going to go up because of the strength or lack thereof against the dollar and the weaker it gets the more expensive it will get. It's all very well saying that you'll have the same amount of euros in your pocket for next years holiday as this which is something I've had levelled at me alot the last couple of days but if you have no expendable income because the price of everything is going up you might not going on holiday next year.

We'll know more at the end of the week I guess.

lewys33 said:

But after day 1 everything was fine??

Click to expand...

No but by the end of day one we were being told the markets were starting to turn around and recover. Doesn't seem that way now.

I'm not expecting everything to be fantastic, what I am expecting is a plan and some action being taken. At the moment the leave campaign look like they've been caught in the headlights and have no idea what to do next.

skybluetony176 said:

But reading Boris's column, with the levels of access he seems to be hinting at to the common market and what he seems to be saying about people from the UK being able to still have free movement of the EU and being able to work, buy property etc. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that we're going to join the EEA as Norway etc. have.

Click to expand...

What we're going to end up with is freedom of movement, having to accept the majority of EU regulations (as we will have to comply to trade), and still paying in but we will have no say in anything. While we will pay less in we won't be getting anything out so the net difference might be relatively small.

The Canada deal began in 2009 and still isn't completed. And they didn't even have to discuss freedom of movement.

A key point in a lot of the deals with non-EU countries is they don't include passporting which would be a huge problem for the UK given our reliance on the financial services sector.

Once the EU have completed the Canada deal a similar deal with the US is up next. The danger being the US may concentrate their efforts on that before concerning themselves with a UK trade deal.

chiefdave said:

No but by the end of day one we were being told the markets were starting to turn around and recover. Doesn't seem that way now.

I'm not expecting everything to be fantastic, what I am expecting is a plan and some action being taken. At the moment the leave campaign look like they've been caught in the headlights and have no idea what to do next.

Click to expand...

Yeah. I was hoping that George Osborne's fairly positive no need for an emergency budget speech would have a similar effect to the BOE statement on Friday but it didn't.

I think things are going to be very unstable and mainly negative now until the tory leadership is sorted and possibly even until a general election has happened and brexit can go from an opinion poll to government policy. Even then it may remain unstable until details of the brexit deal starts being confirmed and even then I'd expect a second round of uncertainty once we do exit.

chiefdave said:

Once the EU have completed the Canada deal a similar deal with the US is up next.

Click to expand...

tbf there are some very worrying things in those deals, that would have been a fine reason to exit the EU in themselves.

Although I suspect a Boris led government would be more than happy to sign us up to those worrying parts, too!

Deleted member 5849 said:

tbf there are some very worrying things in those deals, that would have been a fine reason to exit the EU in themselves.

Although I suspect a Boris led government would be more than happy to sign us up to those worrying parts, too!

Click to expand...

Free movement of raccoons?

lewys33 said:

Free movement of raccoons?

Click to expand...

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-why-the-answer-should-scare-you-9779688.html

Deleted member 5849 said:

tbf there are some very worrying things in those deals, that would have been a fine reason to exit the EU in themselves.

Click to expand...

In the TTIP one? That needed some major revision but seemed to be flying under the radar. My fear is we will get something similar if not worse if it is down to the conservatives to negotiate it. They wouldn't be concerned for a second to sign away the UKs right to public ownership of things like the NHS.

chiefdave said:

What we're going to end up with is freedom of movement, having to accept the majority of EU regulations (as we will have to comply to trade), and still paying in but we will have no say in anything. While we will pay less in we won't be getting anything out so the net difference might be relatively small.

The Canada deal began in 2009 and still isn't completed. And they didn't even have to discuss freedom of movement.

A key point in a lot of the deals with non-EU countries is they don't include passporting which would be a huge problem for the UK given our reliance on the financial services sector.

Once the EU have completed the Canada deal a similar deal with the US is up next. The danger being the US may concentrate their efforts on that before concerning themselves with a UK trade deal.

Click to expand...

The passporting is a major point. Still reading up on it but from what I've gathered so far is that we'll have to join the EEA to gain it. Failure to do this could potentially seriously damage the UK financial industry and Britain's proud boast of being the banking hub of Europe. Canary Wharf especially. Banks like HSBC are always going to be there as they have a high-street presence in the UK but they've said without passporting they'll have to move a 1000 jobs to the EU. You'd think that the same principle if not numbers is likely of all the banks with UK high street presence but what about the banks in canary wharf who don't have a high-street presence? Are they just going to move the section that requires passporting or are they going to move everything accept what they need to operate solely in the UK with the rest of the world operations moving to Paris or wherever just to stay in the EU?

The thing I have heard repeatedly is the financial services won't go as the staff won't move. Don't buy that. The staff will go, these aren't minimum wage workers - they earn a fortune. If their employer says move they will move.

Chill, give it a month if the ship hasn't steadied by then I'll be worried but its only 2 market days in.

chiefdave said:

We've just lost our AAA credit rating, now AA with a negative outlook.

Click to expand...

From the same credit rating agency that gave a Triple-A rating to junk bonds that contained sub-prime mortgages and triggered the 2008 crash:
Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis

All three agencies have been a joke in financial circles for a very long time.

dutchman said:

From the same credit rating agency that gave a Triple-A rating to junk bonds that contained sub-prime mortgages and triggered the 2008 crash:
Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis

All three agencies have been a joke in financial circles for a very long time.

Click to expand...

Doesn't really matter if they are a joke or not. We borrow £7-8bn a month. It will now cost us more to borrow that.

Fitch has now downgraded their rating as well stating the UK will suffer an abrupt slowdown.

The TTIP deal is crazy, Haven't read the link, but it allows Americans companies to sue the EU governments if they bring in legislation that affect profits. Allows GM foods, Allows foods with all sort of shit in them to be sold here, and we can't do anything because of the previous legislation regarding the profits.

Monsanto provides the GM crops(seeds)/pesticides, but if your neighbour farms GM food and they some how accidently end up on your non GM farm, You have to pay for the full rights to use the produce or they legally can destroy your crops.