The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (98 Viewers)

[Astute]

Why do people keep insisting that the pound isn't collapsing when it clearly has and also hasn't shown any real signs of recovery.

Don't take my word for it. Follow this link and look for yourself.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm

Click on any of the currencies from around the world and the graph is almost identical for the last month, it's not just against the US dollar. The only currency the pound can even be remotely claimed to be not collapsing to is Argentina's and personally I don't take that one currency against all the other's as a sign of the pound not collapsing. It's a myth that the pound hasn't collapsed and frankly you must have your head stuck up your arse if you can't see that. I've been keeping a close eye on currency for a couple of weeks now and today was one of the better days. Still not good though.

It says it all.

So you have kept an eye on currencies for a couple of weeks now. Well done. I suppose you count yourself as a currency expert.

As you have been told many times a crash is when it goes into freefall. Like in recent years when the $ went from $2.10 down to $1.36 in just 2 years. So it lost over 1/3 of its value. And that was within the last 10 years. It was caused by the money people who said brexit would be a disaster. The same people who said we would be a lot better off joining the Euro. And you want me to put my faith in what they are saying again?

If you could be bothered to listen you will have known that there would have been a currency exchange move after the vote. But you knew that a leave vote wouldn't happen because the bookies said so.

Once the uncertainty is over there will be a correction. But maybe it has shown you something that you couldn't get your head around. This is why the Euro will never work. It is why a federal EU won't work. When you have a shared currency you are tied to the average. Germany does very well out of it. Those countries not doing well are put deeper into trouble. They can't get the devaluation that they need.

 

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[clint van damme]

I think the nature of this kind of extremism is that he's already harnessed every single person who agrees with him - I've never met an unenthusiastic Militant; they are all now party members. Labour will always get a number of other votes from people who vote on brand but I cannot see them ever winning an election whilst the hard left have control. IMO this is what this civil war is about: the Labour brand. The moderate, sensible people want the brand so that they can take those 10% of the population that will vote Labour no matter what they say.

I think the difference is that the tories are just as factious and fall out just as much but they'll put that to one side to win elections.

I also thing it's fairly depressing to see some of the fairly centre left opinions which are now classed as extreme and shows just how much we've lurched to the right in this country.

 

[martcov]

Fuck me you are taking the piss with your lies now. If not you don't have a clue what is going on in the UK.

1, We are not in recession.

2, It is better for this institution that we have become a part of without voting for to become part of the past before we are fully ruled by a federal state of the EU that you say you want. Most other countries don't want it either but are now reliant on the bailouts that they get. Those people getting us worldwide trade deals that the EU wouldn't let us have are what is needed.

3, Is it a bad thing that Cameron is going?

4, Labour have been imploding for years. And the Tory supporters paid their money so they could vote for the next Labour leader. That is why they ended up with the total outsider who was the worse out of the lot of them.

5, So we should have voted remain to keep Sturgeon happy?

6, So you know that Ireland would have run perfectly if we would have voted remain?

7, The biggest bit wrong about your post. The EU made the statement that nothing was on the table and nothing would be on the table about changes. That was after Cameron tried to make out that it was. Juncker is aiming at a federal state, people like yourself want it and there isn't a lot that can stop it unless countries start leaving the EU or they manage to get rid of Juncker and replace him with someone who wants what is best for the majority.

8, The £ hasn't collapsed. We have the dip that was expected while we have uncertainty.

9, Why don't you concentrate about the lies from both sides instead of just the same one all the time. And from those that said they would put money into certain things when they would never be in a position to do so. Or do you think that Farage had a chance of making the decisions?

1. the signs are ( property funds on hold ) and the predictions are saying that we are entering a recession- the chancellor is preparing for one.

2. being part of a federal state is not direct rule on all matters. We don't know how far the EU will go, or what form the EU version of a federal State would be if it got that far.

Scaremongering.

3. depends on if you prefer May.

4. are the majority of 500000 ( more now) Labour members really Tories in disguise? The resignations were directly prompted by brexit because of the possibility of an election being called.

5. who claimed that? I said she would have had nothing to say, had the Status quo been accepted.

6. no, do you? But I do know that Ireland has the Euro - unlike Grendel.

7. I want Juncker out and a democratically controlled commision. Maybe some Form of federal state is good for the majority, but it would have to be ratified by 28 countries first ( or rather 27 ). We don't know what it would be like, but no way would all countries agree to direct rule on all matters.

8. Dip? At the moment it is down. It will remain volatile for a long while because the negotiations will take years - if and when article 50 is triggered. Not good for the economy.

9. because the lies of the leavers are being proved as such and are not speculation. Farage, and leave, had a big bus with 350m all over it. He now says he could never have held the promise made by leave. The public were told 350m would go to the NHS by leave - knowing full well they couldn't make those decisions. Many of 'the street' believed the demagogues and voted on that issue - and control of immigration ( also doubtful if Farage - himself no chance - or leave can completely influence that ).

 

[skybluetony176]

It says it all.

So you have kept an eye on currencies for a couple of weeks now. Well done. I suppose you count yourself as a currency expert.

As you have been told many times a crash is when it goes into freefall. Like in recent years when the $ went from $2.10 down to $1.36 in just 2 years. So it lost over 1/3 of its value. And that was within the last 10 years. It was caused by the money people who said brexit would be a disaster. The same people who said we would be a lot better off joining the Euro. And you want me to put my faith in what they are saying again?

If you could be bothered to listen you will have known that there would have been a currency exchange move after the vote. But you knew that a leave vote wouldn't happen because the bookies said so.

Once the uncertainty is over there will be a correction. But maybe it has shown you something that you couldn't get your head around. This is why the Euro will never work. It is why a federal EU won't work. When you have a shared currency you are tied to the average. Germany does very well out of it. Those countries not doing well are put deeper into trouble. They can't get the devaluation that they need.

If being able to see what's right in front of your face makes you an expert then yes I must be an expert. The graphs for every currency around the world are identical. It's as simple as that. You can bury your head in the sand as much as you like but the fact is that it it was one or two you could brush it of as they're strong and it's not the pound that's weak but when it's every major currency from every corner of the world and you can overlay all the graphs and they're identical you're either stupid or ignorant to ignore what's right in front of your face. You're in denial, a member of the flat earth society, the black knight from the holy grail "it's a knick". The one thing you certainly aren't is astute.

 

[skybluetony176]

Ireland joining the Euro - good luck with that - bring it on

Ireland joined the Euro the best part of two decades ago.

 

[Astute]

If being able to see what's right in front of your face makes you an expert then yes I must be an expert. The graphs for every currency around the world are identical. It's as simple as that. You can bury your head in the sand as much as you like but the fact is that it it was one or two you could brush it of as they're strong and it's not the pound that's weak but when it's every major currency from every corner of the world and you can overlay all the graphs and they're identical you're either stupid or ignorant to ignore what's right in front of your face. You're in denial, a member of the flat earth society, the black knight from the holy grail "it's a knick". The one thing you certainly aren't is astute.

So you consider yourself to be an expert yet you don't understand what a crash is

 

[Astute]

1. the signs are ( property funds on hold ) and the predictions are saying that we are entering a recession- the chancellor is preparing for one.

You keep mentioning about the high risk property funds are on hold. They are like SISU. High risk high reward when it pays off. It has nothing to do with the rest of the economy.

And for those predicting a recession. They were wrong about the banking crisis. They were wrong about the Euro. They said if we voted leave interest rates would go up. The talk is of them going down now. Not very good for so called experts are they.

 

[martcov]

So you consider yourself to be an expert yet you don't understand what a crash is

TBF we've only had 2 weeks and nothing has happened yet. The fun starts when the new PM tells us what the plan is - assuming she has one.

The EU meeting in Bratislava is also in September. I would like to see what their reaction to Brexit is.

If brexit lite, or a loophole has been found to further postpone article 50,or a general election based on Referendum ratification is on the table, the pound could shoot back up.

 

[Astute]

2. being part of a federal state is not direct rule on all matters. We don't know how far the EU will go, or what form the EU version of a federal State would be if it got that far.

Scaremongering.



7. I want Juncker out and a democratically controlled commision. Maybe some Form of federal state is good for the majority, but it would have to be ratified by 28 countries first ( or rather 27 ). We don't know what it would be like, but no way would all countries agree to direct rule on all matters.

You have said that you want a federal state. You call it scaremongering yet admit that you don't know how far they would take it. Countries in the EU are now reliant on the bailouts that they get. So many could be pushed into a corner. And Juncker makes up the rules as he goes.

 

[Kingokings204]

If being able to see what's right in front of your face makes you an expert then yes I must be an expert. The graphs for every currency around the world are identical. It's as simple as that. You can bury your head in the sand as much as you like but the fact is that it it was one or two you could brush it of as they're strong and it's not the pound that's weak but when it's every major currency from every corner of the world and you can overlay all the graphs and they're identical you're either stupid or ignorant to ignore what's right in front of your face. You're in denial, a member of the flat earth society, the black knight from the holy grail "it's a knick". The one thing you certainly aren't is astute.

Tony, you still have not explained why the pound has been failing constantly for dead on 2 years now? It first started dropping July 2014 so why is that?

The truth is it's got nothing to do with brexit. Sure the sharp decline after the result but that will recover over time but the truth is the pound has been falling for 2 years now month by month and you don't want to give us the answer.

I shall give it to you. It has been failing for 2 years month by month because the pound was over valued deliberately to convince the markets and everyone we are doing well when the truth is we (UK) are massively overspending and keep increasing the national debt. In the end you can ignore the markets as such as you like but in time the markets won't ignore you.

 

[skybluetony176]

So you consider yourself to be an expert yet you don't understand what a crash is

A crash is a sudden and dramatic fall. Try looking it up in a dictionary if you don't want to believe me. It certainly isn't a gradual fall over a period of two years like you're trying to claim. So yes, compared to you I'm an expert.

As for you claiming that we're not in a recession. A recession is measured decline over two quarters not two weeks. You can't claim we're not in recession any more than I can claim we are.

When you understand some of the basics come back and lecture me.

 

[martcov]

You keep mentioning about the high risk property funds are on hold. They are like SISU. High risk high reward when it pays off. It has nothing to do with the rest of the economy.

And for those predicting a recession. They were wrong about the banking crisis. They were wrong about the Euro. They said if we voted leave interest rates would go up. The talk is of them going down now. Not very good for so called experts are they.

It is easy with hindsight to find the experts that got it wrong - or right if it suits.

We haven't left yet, we haven't Even accepted the result and triggered article 50.

Interest rates could still go up, there could still be an emergency budget. As I say, we haven't left the EU and the signs are that we are in no hurry to leave.

The only people leaving anywhere are the biggest mouths of the leave campaign. And Cameron, but for different reasons.

 

[Kingokings204]

You have said that you want a federal state. You call it scaremongering yet admit that you don't know how far they would take it. Countries in the EU are now reliant on the bailouts that they get. So many could be pushed into a corner. And Juncker makes up the rules as he goes.

Literally the countries like Greece are trapped. It's a volkerkirker. Greece have problems cause by the euro but they can't get rid of the euro whilst they are in the eu meaning they can never escape. Now they have debts they can never pay back and Germany won't ever let them leave as if they set Greece free and Greece start doing well with a drachma currency re introduced then other countries will want to go. So yes we will see a fourth Greek bailout soon and probably another 100billion chucked at them. It's a joke.

You think that's bad just wait for Italy to hit the fan. They are in massive trouble and debt to gdp last time I checked was over 130%. I hear they are trying to use brexit as an excuse to have a bailout such is their desperation. And guess what then they are trapped.

This Eu is failing and failing very badly and with UK now left it can't survive without its second biggest net contributer. Who now fronts the bill? Romania? Bulgaria? Do me a favor.

 

[Astute]

TBF we've only had 2 weeks and nothing has happened yet. The fun starts when the new PM tells us what the plan is - assuming she has one.

The EU meeting in Bratislava is also in September. I would like to see what their reaction to Brexit is.

If brexit lite, or a loophole has been found to further postpone article 50,or a general election based on Referendum ratification is on the table, the pound could shoot back up.

Agreed.

If Juncker gets his way it will move quickly. He is nothing but a power freak. It seems most want it done properly though.

I would guess that it has more of a chance of being a disaster for the EU than for us.

 

[Kingokings204]

It is easy with hindsight to find the experts that got it wrong - or right if it suits.

We haven't left yet, we haven't Even accepted the result and triggered article 50.

Interest rates could still go up, there could still be an emergency budget. As I say, we haven't left the EU and the signs are that we are in no hurry to leave.

The only people leaving anywhere are the biggest mouths of the leave campaign. And Cameron, but for different reasons.

Hang on a minute, interest rates still might go up. The Coventry has just introduced the uk lowest 10 year mortgage this week in history. Wouldn't call that increasing interest rates although the remain camp said if we left they would rise sharply. Guess they just made a mistake on this one.

I agree with one thing you said about not left yet and we won't for years yet but we need to trigger article 50 before the end of the year which I am hopeful will happen. The sooner the better for me. It would of happened already but Dave doesn't believe in it so we all as a country have to wait for some one else to have the bottle to do it.

 

[Astute]

It is easy with hindsight to find the experts that got it wrong - or right if it suits.

The so called experts have pushed us in the direction that would make them the most money. One put us into a recession and put the banks in a very bad shape that they still haven't recovered from. Then they said that we had to join the Euro to survive in the EU. Not a good track record is it?

 

[Astute]

A crash is a sudden and dramatic fall. Try looking it up in a dictionary if you don't want to believe me. It certainly isn't a gradual fall over a period of two years like you're trying to claim. So yes, compared to you I'm an expert.

As for you claiming that we're not in a recession. A recession is measured decline over two quarters not two weeks. You can't claim we're not in recession any more than I can claim we are.

When you understand some of the basics come back and lecture me.

So losing over 1/3 value in 2 years wasn't a crash? You have lost the last little bit of credibility that you had.

We are in growth. We are not in recession. Scotland is in recession though. So you say that you know how a recession is measured but you don't want to use it as it proves you wrong

 

[clint van damme]

The so called experts have pushed us in the direction that would make them the most money. One put us into a recession and put the banks in a very bad shape that they still haven't recovered from. Then they said that we had to join the Euro to survive in the EU. Not a good track record is it?

you can find experts to back any theory or suggestion, to make out they all sing from the same hymn sheet is ridiculous.

There is no doubt the pound is weakening, there is no doubt this has accelerated due to the leave vote.

However there are many experts who say it was too strong anyway, there are others who say this free fall is dangerous. Time will tell.

 

[mrtrench]

I think the difference is that the tories are just as factious and fall out just as much but they'll put that to one side to win elections.

I also thing it's fairly depressing to see some of the fairly centre left opinions which are now classed as extreme and shows just how much we've lurched to the right in this country.

The issue isn't about factions - it's about an extremist having the reins of a major political party. If we had a nut job Right Winger at the head of the Tories it would be just as bad. Whether the politics of this country have moved Right must surely be a perception from where your opinion started. I cannot think of a Labour leader more Left than Corbyn - only Foot to equal him. I don't know how many moderates there were in Labour in the 70s so I cannot comment - but there are certainly a number of moderates now: people whose motivations aren't necessarily hate and jealousy. Or just "I support the unsupportable because that's what I do".

In parallel the Conservatives have moved Left; Cameron being almost indistinguishable from Blair. If the better brother had won the Labour leadership election the country would have been (in my opinion) in the enviable position of having both parties capable of government and trying to do the right thing for everyone rather than "going for" one half of the country or the other.

So, in conclusion I don't think politics has moved Right; I think it's converged to the centre. And so much the better for it IMO.

There was a three-part documentary on BBC 4 recently covering the lives of Marx; Nietzsche and Freud - one episode each. I thought it spelled out very well why we need neither Marx nor Nietzsche based philosophies having power; but instead a considerate and caring capitalism: give everyone opportunities and provide a safety net for those that fail.

 

[mrtrench]

Hang on a minute, interest rates still might go up. The Coventry has just introduced the uk lowest 10 year mortgage this week in history. Wouldn't call that increasing interest rates although the remain camp said if we left they would rise sharply. Guess they just made a mistake on this one.

They are both reasonable positions based on conjecture on what may happen IMO.

If the country does slide into recession and investment in business declines, then interest rates must fall to regenerate growth. However if the weakening pound sets in causing inflation then interest rates must rise to control that. Worst case is that both happen simultaneously - that's stagflation and would mean the country is in a right old funk.

 

[Astute]

you can find experts to back any theory or suggestion, to make out they all sing from the same hymn sheet is ridiculous.

There is no doubt the pound is weakening, there is no doubt this has accelerated due to the leave vote.

However there are many experts who say it was too strong anyway, there are others who say this free fall is dangerous. Time will tell.

Just about all of the so called experts backed what I said. Just like nearly all of them said interest rates would go up if we voted leave. That is why we were supposed to vote remain. Now the talk is of them going lower.

Yes the pound has been mainly weakening for years against the $. Can anyone say though that it wasn't expected to drop a bit more if we got the leave vote? Once the uncertainty is over it should go up again. But the fall isn't just about the vote. You have to consider the interest rate drop proposed as well.

You say that we are in freefall. Would you like to explain what you mean by this?

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5151-British-pound-don-t-panic

A good site. Not like the populist BBC website who come out with what people want to read.

 

[Grendel]

Corbyn being leader of the Labour Party actually shows why the argument suggested that young peoples rights are being denied is absurd.

The only people the horrific Corbyn and his comrade in arms appeal two are the young ill informed party members who vote without any considered thought.

Corbyn and his strong association with the IRA when it was at its height should mean he should never be fit to remain in parliament let alone lead a party. A frequent attendee of IRA funerals at which he gave tributes to brave soldiers, freedom fighters, a friend of Hammas, a secretary to a notorious left wing journal that applauded the Brighton bomb attack.

Oh yes these people who ally themselves to this vile creature really are the responsible element of our society.

 

[skybluetony176]

So losing over 1/3 value in 2 years wasn't a crash? You have lost the last little bit of credibility that you had.

We are in growth. We are not in recession. Scotland is in recession though. So you say that you know how a recession is measured but you don't want to use it as it proves you wrong

2 years is neither sudden or dramatic. Go and read a dictionary and then come back and talk to me about credibility.

 

[clint van damme]

The issue isn't about factions - it's about an extremist having the reins of a major political party. If we had a nut job Right Winger at the head of the Tories it would be just as bad. Whether the politics of this country have moved Right must surely be a perception from where your opinion started. I cannot think of a Labour leader more Left than Corbyn - only Foot to equal him. I don't know how many moderates there were in Labour in the 70s so I cannot comment - but there are certainly a number of moderates now: people whose motivations aren't necessarily hate and jealousy. Or just "I support the unsupportable because that's what I do".

In parallel the Conservatives have moved Left; Cameron being almost indistinguishable from Blair. If the better brother had won the Labour leadership election the country would have been (in my opinion) in the enviable position of having both parties capable of government and trying to do the right thing for everyone rather than "going for" one half of the country or the other.

So, in conclusion I don't think politics has moved Right; I think it's converged to the centre. And so much the better for it IMO.

There was a three-part documentary on BBC 4 recently covering the lives of Marx; Nietzsche and Freud - one episode each. I thought it spelled out very well why we need neither Marx nor Nietzsche based philosophies having power; but instead a considerate and caring capitalism: give everyone opportunities and provide a safety net for those that fail.

I can't agree the country hasn't moved to the right, for example, look at the banking crisis, those who were advocating Keynesian economics policies were been shot down as some sort of communists even though the IMF were wary of austerity.
Anything a bit further left than centre is branded as extremist, it doesn't bode well for a successful democracy, like or loathe Corbyn, at least he has tried to focus on debating issues rather than get involved in insults and name calling, unfortunately he's fighting a losing battle and we'll be consigned to a political elite who rely on sound bites and media friendly presentation.

 

[RegTheDonk]

Ireland joined the Euro the best part of two decades ago.

In fairness to G, I took that comment as good luck with Ireland trying to join the EU as a separate entity, rather than the currency.

 

[clint van damme]

Just about all of the so called experts backed what I said. Just like nearly all of them said interest rates would go up if we voted leave. That is why we were supposed to vote remain. Now the talk is of them going lower.

Yes the pound has been mainly weakening for years against the $. Can anyone say though that it wasn't expected to drop a bit more if we got the leave vote? Once the uncertainty is over it should go up again. But the fall isn't just about the vote. You have to consider the interest rate drop proposed as well.

You say that we are in freefall. Would you like to explain what you mean by this?

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5151-British-pound-don-t-panic

A good site. Not like the populist BBC website who come out with what people want to read.

I don't see how that contradicts the pound been in freefall, (though that term is subjective), what it does say is that may not be a bad thing, something I alluded to in my post.
As I've re-iterated we haven't left yet, and may not actually do so, so all of this is conjecture at the moment.

 

[Astute]

2 years is neither sudden or dramatic. Go and read a dictionary and then come back and talk to me about credibility.

I don't need a dictionary to tell me what words mean.

Show me any investor who wouldn't call a loss of over 1/3 in two years as usual. You are the one who used the words sudden or dramatic. So you are now reduced to using a dictionary to back you up.

Did you look at the link I posted? I suppose you now know more than the experts.

 

[Astute]

I don't see how that contradicts the pound been in freefall, (though that term is subjective), what it does say is that may not be a bad thing, something I alluded to in my post.
As I've re-iterated we haven't left yet, and may not actually do so, so all of this is conjecture at the moment.

Which is what I have been saying. The dip was expected. It isn't a crash. It isn't freefall as that is constantly dropping with no end in sight. And a lot of it will depend on what the BOE does.

 

[skybluetony176]

In fairness to G, I took that comment as good luck with Ireland trying to join the EU as a separate entity, rather than the currency.

Ireland has been an EU member since 1973.

 

[skybluetony176]

I don't need a dictionary to tell me what words mean.

Show me any investor who wouldn't call a loss of over 1/3 in two years as usual. You are the one who used the words sudden or dramatic. So you are now reduced to using a dictionary to back you up.

Did you look at the link I posted? I suppose you now know more than the experts.

The word crash with regards to the markets means sudden and dramatic fall that's why I used them. A sudden and dramatic fall is exactly what has happened to the pound since the out vote. Like I said, read a dictionary and compare the pound across the currency market. It's crashed in the true definition of the word not a definition you're trying to sell to justify your ignorance.

 

[Astute]

The word crash with regards to the markets means sudden and dramatic fall that's why I used them. A sudden and dramatic fall is exactly what has happened to the pound since the out vote. Like I said, read a dictionary and compare the pound across the currency market. It's crashed in the true definition of the word not a definition you're trying to sell to justify your ignorance.

Not one expert has called it a crash. Not even those that predicted a crash if it was a leave vote. So you are now more knowledgeable than the financial experts

 

[Grendel]

In fairness to G, I took that comment as good luck with Ireland trying to join the EU as a separate entity, rather than the currency.

I was talking about Northern Ireland as Martcov thinks the union will break up.

 

[Kingokings204]

I was talking about Northern Ireland as Martcov thinks the union will break up.

Oh and London want out the Uk also so they will have to leave the UK. I think even Oxford voted remain so they could stay in the EU also.

It's a nonsense. We voted as a country. To suggest anything else goes against every election ever done.( Did the north vote Tories? But they run our country.)

 

[SIR ERNIE]

IMF forecast huge problems ahead for the broken EU:

A devastating report published yesterday reveals why the decision of the British people to unshackle themselves from the crumbling European Union was so right.
In clear and simple language, it portrays the EU as an organisation in profound crisis, with declining growth, a tottering banking system, mass unemployment, alarming levels of debt and ‘deep-rooted structural weaknesses’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3681708/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-IMF-truth-broken-EU.html

 

[Astute]

IMF forecast huge problems ahead for the broken EU:

A devastating report published yesterday reveals why the decision of the British people to unshackle themselves from the crumbling European Union was so right.
In clear and simple language, it portrays the EU as an organisation in profound crisis, with declining growth, a tottering banking system, mass unemployment, alarming levels of debt and ‘deep-rooted structural weaknesses’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3681708/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-IMF-truth-broken-EU.html

It must be wrong as it is in the Daily Mail