Actual Nazis in America (6 Viewers)

[martcov]

Brexit. We all know brexit caused the pound to drop massively in June 2016. The reason it was so dramatic was there was a massive gamble on us staying the eu and when on the night we voted brexit they all ran faster than a cheetah.

You said the highest point was 2014. was that the massive gamble? Why then and not after the referendum had been announced?

 

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[martcov]

Firstly, that’s the last four years and it’s clearly not been falling.

Secondly, see that peak at the end of 2015/start of 2016? That’s when Cameron fucked up negotiations and came back until he announced the referendum.

Thirdly, see that steep drop halfway through 2016? That’s this:

From: The stunning collapse of the British pound, in charts

It was Brexit.

Can you explain the first graph to Grendel and KoK?

 

[Kingokings204]

You said the highest point was 2014. was that the massive gamble? Why then and not after the referendum had been announced?

Yes that's correct. No that's what I said I'm agreeing with you. Before the referendum on June 23rd there was a massive punt on us staying in the eu and backing the pound but when we on the night had a result of brexit everyone ran away quick than usain bolt causing a massive sharp decline you see on the graph I linked. I'm not saying it wouldn't of gone down anyway as it would but it was dramatized for that reason.

 

[martcov]

I clearly do. You quoted a graph posted by schmee that's completely wrong and then had the cheek to make a point on it to be right where tbf it's made you look a bit silly. Look at my graph posted its the official decline of the pound over the last 5 years.

Before deciding that I look a bit silly I would wait for Schmee to explain his graph. It may well be the value of the pound against all major currencies - not just the euro. If that is the case, you may well end up looking silly. Let's wait and see.

 

[skybluetony176]

The graph isn't right you donut. It has it at 1.28 and it wasn't it was 1.73 in July 2014.

Go and re check your facts and come back to me yeah?

You're comparing a pound to euro graph against a dollar to pound graph. The graph is correct you've just failed to understand what you're looking at.

 

[martcov]

You're comparing a pound to euro graph against a dollar to pound graph. The graph is correct you've just failed to understand what you're looking at.

As I thought.... so I am not the silly one then.......;-)

 

[Kingokings204]

You're comparing a pound to euro graph against a dollar to pound graph. The graph is correct you've just failed to understand what you're looking at.

I kind of guessed but that's not what the conversation was about. I said that the pound has been falling steadily for many years before brexit and it had.

We might of been on about different currencies but no one compares the euro to pound graph it's the dollar one everyone uses just as they did on brexit night coverage when they were crying about the pound falling.

So the graph is correct but completely irrelevant what I was on about. Everyone uses the dollar to pound graph.

 

[Kingokings204]

Before deciding that I look a bit silly I would wait for Schmee to explain his graph. It may well be the value of the pound against all major currencies - not just the euro. If that is the case, you may well end up looking silly. Let's wait and see.

Well I said the pound was falling for years and it had. Anyway it's irrelevant the point that has been proven was the pound was falling years before the brexit vote so to blame it all on the brexit vote is ludicrous.

 

[martcov]

I kind of guessed but that's not what the conversation was about. I said that the pound has been falling steadily for many years before brexit and it had.

We might of been on about different currencies but no one compares the euro to pound graph it's the dollar one everyone uses just as they did on brexit night coverage when they were crying about the pound falling.

So the graph is correct but completely irrelevant what I was on about. Everyone uses the dollar to pound graph.

Er... not necessarily.... lf you want a more realistic/ relevant idea you compare against all major currencies. Just the Euro, or just the Dollar can be effected by their own problems/ events.

 

[martcov]

Well I said the pound was falling for years and it had. Anyway it's irrelevant the point that has been proven was the pound was falling years before the brexit vote so to blame it all on the brexit vote is ludicrous.

Maybe against one single currency, but against another it wasn't. So your point has not been proven. It was of course the Brexit vote that pushed it suddenly down to this point and there is no reason to expect a rebound - unless we put a beak on Brexit or stay virtually as we were..

 

[skybluetony176]

I kind of guessed but that's not what the conversation was about. I said that the pound has been falling steadily for many years before brexit and it had.

We might of been on about different currencies but no one compares the euro to pound graph it's the dollar one everyone uses just as they did on brexit night coverage when they were crying about the pound falling.

So the graph is correct but completely irrelevant what I was on about. Everyone uses the dollar to pound graph.

It was what people were talking about. Read back the last 3-4 pages. The euro to pound graph on the night is just as dramatic a fall as it is against all the world currencies pretty much without exception. It wasn't a readjustment between the pound and the euro or the pound and the dollar. The pound crashed pure and simple. You can compare to any currency you like but the outlines are the same even if the amounts on the left aren't.

 

[Kingokings204]

Er... not necessarily.... lf you want a more realistic/ relevant idea you compare against all major currencies. Just the Euro, or just the Dollar can be effected by their own problems/ events.

Well fair enough but to clarify I was on about the pound against the dollar which is used as the trademark mostly and including brexit coverage night.

Even to quote the euro graph the pound was still falling way before the referendum a good year or so and no one ever believed brexit would happen anyway.

 

[skybluetony176]

Have you drawn the first graph yourself? What is it?

No surprise that you don't understand.

 

[Kingokings204]

It was what people were talking about. Read back the last 3-4 pages. The euro to pound graph on the night is just as dramatic a fall as it is against all the world currencies pretty much without exception. It wasn't a readjustment between the pound and the euro or the pound and the dollar. The pound crashed pure and simple. You can compare to any currency you like but the outlines are the same even if the amounts on the left aren't.

I fail to understand what you're getting at? We all know the pound crashed upon the brexit result. A reason for the dramatic fall was based on the massive gamble investors made in the pound on us remaining. They lost their gamble and ran like scalded rabbits. I'm not explaining it again.

 

[Kingokings204]

Maybe against one single currency, but against another it wasn't. So your point has not been proven. It was of course the Brexit vote that pushed it suddenly down to this point and there is no reason to expect a rebound - unless we put a beak on Brexit or stay virtually as we were..

Well we have established we were on about different currencies but the similarities are there for all to see anyway. The pound was overvalued and falling as a result way before the brexit result. Compare any currency you like they all tell you the same thing.

 

[martcov]

Well we have established we were on about different currencies but the similarities are there for all to see anyway. The pound was overvalued and falling as a result way before the brexit result. Compare any currency you like they all tell you the same thing.

Schmee did compare it and on his graph it hadn't been falling for 3 or 4 years as you claimed. You then produced a graph to prove your point and claimed Schmee's graph was wrong..

 

[skybluetony176]

I fail to understand what you're getting at? We all know the pound crashed upon the brexit result. A reason for the dramatic fall was based on the massive gamble investors made in the pound on us remaining. They lost their gamble and ran like scalded rabbits. I'm not explaining it again.

No it wasn't. The slight peak the night before was based on exit polls and reflected in gambles by traders buying pounds up. The fall was as a result of the immediate uncertainty the brexit result created. The failure to recover is a reflection of the on going certainty and actually the fall over the last month that has reversed the slightest recovery against the euro is because the much predicted inevitable collapse of the euro by the brexit camp hasn't happened and is in fact gaining in strength massively against the pound and looks set to continue especially next year when the ECB ends it's quantitative easing program on the euro.

Couldn't tell you the comparable statistics for the dollar to pound as I have an interest in the euro for work purposes so look at rates on an almost daily basis and have done for years but a quick look tells me the dollar story isn't that much different in terms of peaks and troughs although the damage isn't as bad still not good.

The theory that we need to leave the EU before we get dragged down with the euro seems way of the mark at the moment and disappearing into the distance.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

No it wasn't. The slight peak the night before was based on exit polls and reflected in gambles by traders buying pounds up. The fall was as a result of the immediate uncertainty the brexit result created. The failure to recover is a reflection of the on going certainty and actually the fall over the last month that has reversed the slightest recovery against the euro is because the much predicted inevitable collapse of the euro by the brexit camp hasn't happened and is in fact gaining in strength massively against the pound and looks set to continue especially next year when the ECB ends it's quantitative easing program on the euro.

Couldn't tell you the comparable statistics for the dollar to pound as I have an interest in the euro for work purposes so look at rates on an almost daily basis and have done for years but a quick look tells me the dollar story isn't that much different in terms of peaks and troughs although the damage isn't as bad still not good.

The theory that we need to leave the EU before we get dragged down with the euro seems way of the mark at the moment and disappearing into the distance.

"...way off the mark..."


It's the way you tell 'em Tony, your timing is impeccable

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

 

[Sick Boy]

The Euro was supposed to be on the verge of collapse

 

[Kingokings204]

Schmee did compare it and on his graph it hadn't been falling for 3 or 4 years as you claimed. You then produced a graph to prove your point and claimed Schmee's graph was wrong..

It was wrong compared to my graph. We were on about different currencies. But either way the pound was falling before the referendum in both currencies. Against the dollar (my graph) the pound has been falling since July 2014 and on schmees graph it has been falling since mid 2015 against the euro so whichever currency and graph you pick sir the pound was falling way before the brexit result. I don't really know what you're trying to argue.

 

[martcov]

It was wrong compared to my graph. We were on about different currencies. But either way the pound was falling before the referendum in both currencies. Against the dollar (my graph) the pound has been falling since July 2014 and on schmees graph it has been falling since mid 2015 against the euro so whichever currency and graph you pick sir the pound was falling way before the brexit result. I don't really know what you're trying to argue.

No, I don't suppose you do know. You made a claim that the pound had been falling for 3 or 4 years. You didn't qualify your statement ( e.g. By stating against what currency/ currencies). Schnee showed a graph which showed that you were wrong against at least one currency. You said the graph was wrong - which it wasn't. You were wrong because you couldn't figure out that it wasn't showing the currency you were talking about.... You were wrong. 2015 is not 4 years before Bexit vote

 

[SIR ERNIE]

Actually if you look at the 10-year trend, you'll see that the rate has most been commonly in the 1.10 to 1.20 band. The 2015 peak around 1.35/1.40 was very much the exception and hadn't occurred since 2008. It also traded at 1.04 in late 2008, so the current level around 1.10 is on the low side but nothing exceptional or surprising, especially given the referendum vote.

 

[skybluetony176]

Actually if you look at the 10-year trend, you'll see that the rate has most been commonly in the 1.10 to 1.20 band. The 2015 peak around 1.35/1.40 was very much the exception and hadn't occurred since 2008. It also traded at 1.04 in late 2008, so the current level around 1.10 is on the low side but nothing exceptional especially given the referendum vote.

It's more like 1.08 on the trading floors with the actual exchange rate at banks etc. usually a couple of points behind that.

 

[Grendel]

Really this is just embarrassing. Of you took the spot rate in June 2013 and 2017 the variance is less than 2% - at one point last month it was virtual parity and the variance is currently 6%.

There are always going to be highs and lows but if you drew a median curve across the whole decade it's typically around 1.14

Why are people so desperate to find bad news even when it's not there?

Well I think we all know why

 

[clint van damme]

Really this is just embarrassing. Of you took the spot rate in June 2013 and 2017 the variance is less than 2% - at one point last month it was virtual parity and the variance is currently 6%.

There are always going to be highs and lows but if you drew a median curve across the whole decade it's typically around 1.14

Why are people so desperate to find bad news even when it's not there?

Well I think we all know why

you could also flip that around and say people are desperate to find good news that isn't there.
As I said in a previous post, I think the economic pointers are a little confusing and no one can say for sure which way this will pan out.

My opinion, for what it's worth, will be we will enter a brexit induced recession, it won't be the end of the world, we'll come out the other side to be no better off than we were, but remainers will be pissed off at some of the benefits of EU membership we've lost, leavers will be pissed off at some of the concessions we'll have made during divorce proceedings and we'll all be asking ourselves was it really worth it?

 

[Kingokings204]

No, I don't suppose you do know. You made a claim that the pound had been falling for 3 or 4 years. You didn't qualify your statement ( e.g. By stating against what currency/ currencies). Schnee showed a graph which showed that you were wrong against at least one currency. You said the graph was wrong - which it wasn't. You were wrong because you couldn't figure out that it wasn't showing the currency you were talking about.... You were wrong. 2015 is not 4 years before Bexit vote

No it isn't but the dollar graph was. That what I was referring to. How many times can I tell you that. Even before the brexit vote the euro graph started falling 2 years from today and you haven't explained that? You haven't explained why the pound starting falling against the dollar even earlier in mid 2014?

You failed to acknowledge the bond markets also. Do you even know what they are? All this tells me you haven't got a clue or you are just will fully ignoring it which wouldn't shock me. Which one is it?

 

[Grendel]

No it isn't but the dollar graph was. That what I was referring to. How many times can I tell you that. Even before the brexit vote the euro graph started falling 2 years from today and you haven't explained that? You haven't explained why the pound starting falling against the dollar even earlier in mid 2014?

You failed to acknowledge the bond markets also. Do you even know what they are? All this tells me you haven't got a clue or you are just will fully ignoring it which wouldn't shock me. Which one is it?

No he clearly hasn't a clue about bond markets.

 

[Sick Boy]

you could also flip that around and say people are desperate to find good news that isn't there.
As I said in a previous post, I think the economic pointers are a little confusing and no one can say for sure which way this will pan out.

My opinion, for what it's worth, will be we will enter a brexit induced recession, it won't be the end of the world, we'll come out the other side to be no better off than we were, but remainers will be pissed off at some of the benefits of EU membership we've lost, leavers will be pissed off at some of the concessions we'll have made during divorce proceedings and we'll all be asking ourselves was it really worth it?

It will be for those morons who seem to have a problem with Eastern Europeans.

 

[shmmeee]

Here it is again. Just in case you missed it.

That’s dollar, sorry mine was euro. My mistake for adding a dollar graph after to show the immediate drop, just me being lazy. Taken from google finance. Take it up with them if you think it’s wrong.

 

[skybluetony176]

Really this is just embarrassing. Of you took the spot rate in June 2013 and 2017 the variance is less than 2% - at one point last month it was virtual parity and the variance is currently 6%.

There are always going to be highs and lows but if you drew a median curve across the whole decade it's typically around 1.14

Why are people so desperate to find bad news even when it's not there?

Well I think we all know why

You really are a moron. A median is just that and the the only thing it tells you is the median. It's not a indicator on the current health of pound or the economy like you're trying to make out. The peaks and troughs are there for a reason and tell you the bigger story of the economy, predicted growth, predicted decline etc. and confidence in everything connected to them.

The current weakness of the pound is a reflection for the current economy and the outlook of the economy. It's not looking for bad news, it is bad news. Your deliberate ignorance to what's staring you plain in the face is what makes you a moron.

 

[shmmeee]

This is the same graph for dollars:

Still doesn’t show a four year decline.

 

[Kingokings204]

That’s dollar, sorry mine was euro. My mistake for adding a dollar graph after to show the immediate drop, just me being lazy. Taken from google finance. Take it up with them if you think it’s wrong.

Yes funny how you didn't show from 2013-14 but did on the euro. But don't worry I'm sure it was an innocent mistake.

 

[Kingokings204]

This is the same graph for dollars:

Still doesn’t show a four year decline.

Shows a 3 year though doesn't it? You know way before brexit happened?

 

[Sick Boy]

This is the same graph for dollars:

Still doesn’t show a four year decline.

I bet you took it from the Fake News media, you remoaner.

 

[Sick Boy]

The only positive is that we will soon have £350M a week pumped into the NHS and we will all have more money in our pockets.