Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (116 Viewers)

[skybluetony176]

It isn't a good guess is it? They will still base on it on the symptoms of the deceased.

Death certificates have more than one reason on you know as there is often no single cause of death.

Exactly. I picked up my grans death certificate a couple of years ago and it talked about heart failure and other organ failure brought on by sepsis but listed cause of death as sepsis.

 

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[SkyBlueDom26]

You must have just watched something very different to what was on my TV.

What was wrong with it? He’s rallying the country to keep up the lockdown, saying how it’s working, saying that there is a plan in place to move to phase 2.....Yet people like you will still moan because you don’t like the man

 

[David O'Day]

Erm okay?

At least Bigi won us a cup final to be fair.

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[clint van damme]

What was wrong with it? He’s rallying the country to keep up the lockdown, saying how it’s working, saying that there is a plan in place to move to phase 2.....Yet people like you will still moan because you don’t like the man

Or perhaps because we have one of the highest per capita death rates in the world.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

saying that there is a plan in place to move to phase 2

Excellent. I'll watch it on catchup to find out what this plan is.

 

[chiefdave]

This is interesting.

How NZ's 'team of five million' took on Covid-19

Interesting that the plan for easing restrictions and starting the move towards ending lockdown sees them move to something similar to what we are terming lockdown. Shows how relaxed our restrictions are compared to others.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Or perhaps because we have one of the highest per capita death rates in the world.

But I don’t understand what he said that was bad in that speech which Dave seemed to emphasise

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Excellent. I'll watch it on catchup to find out what this plan is.

He obviously hasn’t revealed what it is yet...

 

[Deleted member 5849]

He obviously hasn’t revealed what it is yet...

Eh? Why's it obvious?

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

In that way it's ok good to have it there just in case but why not use it anyway? If somebody has covid but isn't going to die, send them there as a halfway house before they go home and free up a bed.

Yeah I don't really know why they aren't using it, as it's ideal for monitoring elderly patients going back into care homes or those vulnerable going back into their own homes. By doing this surely it would have prevented a load of deaths.

 

[chiefdave]

What was wrong with it? He’s rallying the country to keep up the lockdown, saying how it’s working, saying that there is a plan in place to move to phase 2.....Yet people like you will still moan because you don’t like the man

Why is any criticism of Johnson or the government met with something like 'you don't like the man' rather than an actual response to the criticism?

There was zero substance in there. What do you know now that you didn't know before his speech?

He's talking about lockdown being a success following a weekend when we've all seen, both in person and from pictures shared on social media, that the lockdown is being increasingly ignored.

We were told we were aiming for under 20K deaths, we now have more than that in hospitals alone, probably over 40K when all deaths are taken into consideration, how is that a success?

Once again no indication that the government has any plan or timescale for moving to the whatever the next phase actually is. Other countries are starting to move forward, we don't seem to even have a plan.

Talked about the government having "maximum transparency", the opposite of what we've actually witnessed from them and says that as stories circulate that media outlets who have been critical of the government are being denied access to the daily briefings, not to mention follow up questions seem to have been removed, without any prior warning to the press.

 

[skybluetony176]

Interesting that the plan for easing restrictions and starting the move towards ending lockdown sees them move to something similar to what we are terming lockdown. Shows how relaxed our restrictions are compared to others.

View attachment 14956

They seem to have a published plan for every level also
https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/tables/COVID-19-alert-levels-summary.pdf
It’s alright though. Boris lad has a plan.

 

[Nick]

Yeah alright nick, you expecting some sort of prize for revealing how funny you are?

Nah I don't need one.

 

[skybluetony176]

He obviously hasn’t revealed what it is yet...

Why not? New Zealand published there’s 2 weeks ago. Bloody socialists with their forward planning and preparations.

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

What was wrong with it? He’s rallying the country to keep up the lockdown, saying how it’s working, saying that there is a plan in place to move to phase 2.....Yet people like you will still moan because you don’t like the man

I think that's the problem Dom, it was yet another speech. Granted it was an opportunity for Boris to show face after his absence but surely that time could've been better spent by convening with his cabinet where actual plans rather than promises of plans could've been put together to implement an effective strategy that will transition the nation into phase two. We don't need another speech reiterating soundbites that we've already heard on repeat for the past 5 weeks - we really need to start getting some definitive answers.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

On an apolitical note, I can kind of understand why you might not publish it so people don't start enacting it before the actual date.

I can also see why you might want to put it out there, however, so that you can get feedback on how people respond to the ideas.

Personally... I'd have thought the best thing is to see how any lifting of restraints goes in places like Italy before jumping ourselves. If it goes well, we follow. if badly...

 

[David O'Day]

Even Italy which some folk liked to point at as an example of how bad things could he is getting ready to pretty much reopen and here we are unable to reduce the cases or death rate enough.

We've fucked it big time

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[David O'Day]

Also the current restrictions are not sustainable for health, behavioral or economic reasons. People are already starting to crack.

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[Nick]

More scaremongering, plucking numbers out of the air.

As I keep saying, he wants to get people panicked and scared. He has from the start.

 

[Nick]

Also the current restrictions are not sustainable for health, behavioral or economic reasons. People are already starting to crack.

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Said it last week, they see paramedics and police stood on a bridge watching the public all stand together then they think "fuck it, why should I be stuck in".

Examples aren't being set properly.

I'm physically back at work tomorrow, can't happen soon enough.

 

[Ian1779]

More scaremongering, plucking numbers out of the air.

Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.

 

[Nick]

Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.

So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! )

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.

Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

 

[Ian1779]

Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

Man calling out government should be ashamed.... standard.

 

[Ian1779]

So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! )

I don’t know about other countries - may very much depend on how/where they test/trace/track. We as a country have not done adequte testing or tracking of the disease, especially in care homes.

It’s not scaremongering is it to suggest that a virus that has killed over 20K in hospital alone wouldn’t have a similarly destructive effect on places filled with vulnerable and at risk people with little or no access to any kind of medical care.

 

[chiefdave]

So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! )

Not really down to care home death not being recorded correctly, its the lag (which is weeks) in the deaths being registered and the ONS publishing the figures.

The FT aren't plucking figures out of thin air, they're looking at the existing published data and then using that to model the numbers for the more recent period where the data is not yet available. The person behind this, Chris Giles, has said several times on twitter that they are deliberately being conservative with their modelling to avoid panicking people with a large number that turns out to be too high.

There is a methodology behind it which is explained here:
UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study | Free to read
or a shorter explanation in this thread:

 

[Nick]

I don’t know about other countries - may very much depend on how/where they test/trace/track. We as a country have not done adequte testing or tracking of the disease, especially in care homes.

It’s not scaremongering is it to suggest that a virus that has killed over 20K in hospital alone wouldn’t have a similarly destructive effect on places filled with vulnerable and at risk people with little or no access to any kind of medical care.

The thing is, how can we compare with Germany for example if they are using different reporting?

He has scaremongered since the very start, his MO is to get people worrying.

Aren't people in care homes allowed to have died from COVID? After all, people in hospitals are being certified as dying from it without being tested.

 

[Nick]

Not really down to care home death not being recorded correctly, its the lag (which is weeks) in the deaths being registered and the ONS publishing the figures.

The FT aren't plucking figures out of thin air, they're looking at the existing published data and then using that to model the numbers for the more recent period where the data is not yet available. The person behind this, Chris Giles, has said several times on twitter that they are deliberately being conservative with their modelling to avoid panicking people with a large number that turns out to be too high.

There is a methodology behind it which is explained here:
UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study | Free to read
or a shorter explanation in this thread:

Again, it's just a calculation and an estimate.

Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?

So much of it is about politics, you have Piers Morgan on one hand saying the world is doomed and everybody is going to die and pushing his shite and people like Dom on the other hand trying to give Boris Johnson a reacharound.

 

[chiefdave]

The thing is, how can we compare with Germany for example if they are using different reporting?

This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

 

[Nick]

This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

That's a better way of showing the difference but it is still all calculations rather than confirming it is COVID. Obviously it will play a major factor and I know it sounds crude but will we see more now but less in the comings months?

Has Germany's gone up by much?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

Agreed.

 

[Nick]

The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.

For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.

 

[CCFCSteve]

On an apolitical note, I can kind of understand why you might not publish it so people don't start enacting it before the actual date.

I can also see why you might want to put it out there, however, so that you can get feedback on how people respond to the ideas.

Personally... I'd have thought the best thing is to see how any lifting of restraints goes in places like Italy before jumping ourselves. If it goes well, we follow. if badly...

Spot on NW. I haven’t seen the benefit of making announcements before now for exactly that reason. The ‘treat everyone as adults’ comment (from left and right) don’t wash as we saw the large minority of ‘adults’ earlier on in the outbreak (when people ignored the advised socially distancing pre formal lockdown of pubs etc) and since.

I wouldn’t be surprised if now the better weather is out the way a bit more information about the plan is released in the coming days though

 

[Ian1779]

The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.

For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.

If you compare death rate versus ‘tested’ and death rate versus ‘population size’ - we are shit in every regard. It’s not about a manipulation of statistics (although I understand your point) it’s the fact that in any measure we’ve totally fucked it... and as yet there doesn’t appear to be any plan of how to get on top of it.

Coming out of lockdown shouldn’t even be an agenda item right now.

 

[Nick]

If you compare death rate versus ‘tested’ and death rate versus ‘population size’ - we are shit in every regard. It’s not about a manipulation of statistics (although I understand your point) it’s the fact that in any measure we’ve totally fucked it... and as yet there doesn’t appear to be any plan of how to get on top of it.

Coming out of lockdown shouldn’t even be an agenda item right now.

Oh yeah I have no doubt that things have been badly done. Same as the massive hospitals sat empty while people with Corona are mingling with others in normal hospitals.

It's just people are obsessing about other countries as a comparison and they would need to be reporting in exactly the same way with the same thresholds.