Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (88 Viewers)

[chiefdave]

Interesting piece on how testing numbers have risen so quickly: Revealed: How government changed the rules to hit 100,000 tests target

Why actually meet a target when you can fudge the figures.

The government has changed the way it is counting the number of covid-19 tests carried out in a bid to hit its target of 100,000 tests per day by the end of April, HSJ can reveal.

Previously, a test would be counted once the sample had been processed in laboratories. But this definition has been changed in the last few days, a senior source told HSJ.

The Department of Health and Social Care is now including tests that have been posted or delivered to people’s homes in its figures. This means tests which are sent to people are counted before the recipient has provided and returned their sample to a laboratory.

 

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[David O'Day]

Oh so it's only someone's view that a little over 3 weeks after Cheltenham Festival that the town itself recorded the highest number of hospital admissions in the country? I don't need a scientific study to prove my point David.

It could be and it could be not. Not everyone who went to Cheltenham came from the town, in fact most did not.

A large number of the crowd were Irish and there has not been a representative spike there that can be attributed to the festival.

An increased number of cases is not a correlation and certainly not a causation.

I'm sure someone will look at the festival and study it but until then there is not a study to back up your assertion.

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[SkyBlueCRJ]

It could be and it could be not. Not everyone who went to Cheltenham came from the town, in fact most did not.

A large number of the crowd were Irish and there has not been a representative spike there that can be attributed to the festival.

An increased number of cases is not a correlation and certainly not a causation.

I'm sure someone will look at the festival and study it but until then there is not a study to back up your assertion.

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This was in the Guardian on 21st April. Mortality figures have show that Gloucestershire hospitals NHS trust, which covers Cheltenham, has recorded 125 deaths, roughly double that in two nearby trusts at Bristol (58 each), and those covering Swindon (67) and Bath (46).

It's not just my assertion though it's the assertion of experts and former medical advisors who have far more knowledge on the subject than you or I. Yet it's you that seems to be the only one that is claiming plausible deniability.

Do you suffer from Atychiphobia?

 

[wingy]

Anyone willing to speculate how many have actually died from this over the six weeks and what that means on what % of the population have had it ?

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Anyone willing to speculate how many have actually died from this over the six weeks and what that means on what % of the population have had it ?

I rekon 20-30% have had it already and it’s been around since December but who knows

 

[Astute]

I find it very unfortunate that they argued for austerity on the basis of 'we can't burden the next generation with debt' when the failure to fund anything properly for 10 years is coming home to roost

Was it funded before 10 years ago?

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Economic growth is needed as if the economy doesn't grow people and society get poorer.

Why? Economy has grown here, people can afford less. Got more people using foodbanks etc than ever before. Current generation is expected to be worse off than their parents but we've had an incredible amount of economic growth over that period.

Plus economy can grow but health/wellbeing gets worse - we are 'poorer' as a society and individuals. Economy is growing but life expectancy may well be getting shorter.

Economic growth is only useful if it's relatively even across the whole of society. If certain sections are getting 10% growth while others are getting 1% average figures look fine but majority of people could be worse off.

Those who tend to do best from economic growth are usually those who don't give a shit about society. How much tax dodging goes on by those that have the best growth? Society suffers as a result.

 

[Astute]

Why actually meet a target when you can fudge the figures.

Why shouldn't tests being done at home be counted as a test being done? Was there a statement saying what kind of tests would count?

 

[Nick]

Selco is opening next week. The trades are all getting back to it

 

[clint van damme]

Why shouldn't tests being done at home be counted

have you read the article?
They're counting tests that haven't even been dispatched. That means the test hasn't taken place.

 

[clint van damme]

I rekon 20-30% have had it already and it’s been around since December but who knows

I don't know about 20 or 30% but I think it's been here well before the first recorded case as well.

 

[Astute]

have you read the article?
They're counting tests that haven't even been dispatched. That means the test hasn't taken place.

I read the article. They are counting them as soon as they send them out and not when the tests are taken. But how would they know what day they are taken?

 

[David O'Day]

Why? Economy has grown here, people can afford less. Got more people using foodbanks etc than ever before. Current generation is expected to be worse off than their parents but we've had an incredible amount of economic growth over that period.

Plus economy can grow but health/wellbeing gets worse - we are 'poorer' as a society and individuals. Economy is growing but life expectancy may well be getting shorter.

Economic growth is only useful if it's relatively even across the whole of society. If certain sections are getting 10% growth while others are getting 1% average figures look fine but majority of people could be worse off.

Those who tend to do best from economic growth are usually those who don't give a shit about society. How much tax dodging goes on by those that have the best growth? Society suffers as a result.

Because if the economy doesn't go we all get poorer.

You are mixing up economic growth with economic equality.

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[David O'Day]

It's going to be fun watching the government pretend they have hit the 100k test figure

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[Sky Blue Pete]

Yay they’ve done it

 

[David O'Day]

Will any of the journalists actually ask them why they have judged the test figures

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[Sky Blue Pete]

Will any of the journalists actually ask them why they have judged the test figures

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Judged or falsified

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Hope someone asks what they have learned from other countries

 

[David O'Day]

Judged or falsified

Fudged

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[CCFCSteve]

To be fair, I didn’t expect them to get anywhere near so whether the testing capacity is now 80k, 90k or 150k per day, all I know is it’s far better than it was a month ago.

I’ve always felt its a widely available accurate antibody test that we/everyone needs (assuming level of immunity post contagion), or high testing capacity to be working in conjunction with the tracing/tracking app. Hopefully both are on their way

Ps think I just heard 122k were ‘carried out’ yesterday...wonder if a load of randoms will receive one in the post tomorrow...whether they wanted it or not ! Either way, to get the capacity to a decent level in a month is a positive

 

[clint van damme]

I read the article. They are counting them as soon as they send them out and not when the tests are taken. But how would they know what day they are taken?

They're are also counting tests that haven't been sent out. How can that be right?

I would suggest counting those returned to the lab but either way, as CD said, it's a fudge.

 

[shmmeee]

I don't know about 20 or 30% but I think it's been here well before the first recorded case as well.

Im the opposite. No way has it been here longer without us knowing, the contact tracing at the start was excellent and credited with buying us extra time so I doubt they missed it by months.

As for how many have had it, IIRC NYC have done large scale antibody testing and came back with 20-30% so I think that’s a reasonable estimate somewhere like London and maybe central Brum, probably a bit less in the less densely populated areas.


All guesswork though.

 

[David O'Day]

They're are also counting tests that haven't been sent out. How can that be right?

I would suggest counting those returned to the lab but either way, as CD said, it's a fudge.

It's scandalous, judging from Jon Ashworth on twitter he will be bringing this up

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[Sky Blue Pete]

To be fair, I didn’t expect them to get anywhere near so whether the testing capacity is now 80k, 90k or 150k per day, all I know is it’s far better than it was a month ago.

I’ve always felt its a widely available accurate antibody test that we/everyone needs (assuming level of immunity post contagion), or high testing capacity to be working in conjunction with the tracing/tracking app. Hopefully both are on their way

Ps think I just heard 122k were ‘carried out’ yesterday...wonder if a load of randoms will receive one in the post tomorrow...whether they wanted it or not ! Either way, to get the capacity to a decent level in a month is a positive

Yep which is why a target is silly and increasing to the highest level and not having to lie about it is brilliant. This is silly

 

[clint van damme]

Im the opposite. No way has it been here longer without us knowing, the contact tracing at the start was excellent and credited with buying us extra time so I doubt they missed it by months.

As for how many have had it, IIRC NYC have done large scale antibody testing and came back with 20-30% so I think that’s a reasonable estimate somewhere like London and maybe central Brum, probably a bit less in the less densely populated areas.


All guesswork though.

Looking at the facts there is nothing to suggest it was here earlier.
Looking at the anecdotal evidence? I know or know of so many people who were ill with similar symptoms including 2 who were hospitalised. But, yeah, if that was the case then surely it would have spread like wildfire through January

 

[CCFCSteve]

Yep which is why a target is silly and increasing to the highest level and not having to lie about it is brilliant. This is silly

Agreed. Made a massive rod for his own back which under the current circumstances just wasn’t necessary. Good that the capacity is now there but as I say, only really if it’s used correctly (nhs, care homes and their families etc but then over an above that really the main benefit is in conjunction with the trace and track app/process)

 

[clint van damme]

To be fair, I didn’t expect them to get anywhere near so whether the testing capacity is now 80k, 90k or 150k per day, all I know is it’s far better than it was a month ago.

I’ve always felt its a widely available accurate antibody test that we/everyone needs (assuming level of immunity post contagion), or high testing capacity to be working in conjunction with the tracing/tracking app. Hopefully both are on their way

Ps think I just heard 122k were ‘carried out’ yesterday...wonder if a load of randoms will receive one in the post tomorrow...whether they wanted it or not ! Either way, to get the capacity to a decent level in a month is a positive

It won't be randoms

Apparently they sent a letter to every over 65 in the Tory party asking them to apply for the test. Once they've received the application they're counting that as a test.

Over 65s in the Tories? I belive it's around the 90 thousand mark!

 

[CCFCSteve]

It won't be randoms

Apparently they sent a letter to every over 65 in the Tory party asking them to apply for the test. Once they've received the application they're counting that as a test.

Over 65s in the Tories? I belive it's around the 90 thousand mark!

I was kidding about the randoms. As I say the important thing is having the capacity there (to be utilised properly) in future

ps what did your letter say mate ?! ; )

 

[David O'Day]

I was kidding about the randoms. As I say the important thing is having the capacity there (to be utilised properly) in future

ps what did your letter say mate ?! ; )

Ask grenners he will have received one

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[covmark]

Im the opposite. No way has it been here longer without us knowing, the contact tracing at the start was excellent and credited with buying us extra time so I doubt they missed it by months.

As for how many have had it, IIRC NYC have done large scale antibody testing and came back with 20-30% so I think that’s a reasonable estimate somewhere like London and maybe central Brum, probably a bit less in the less densely populated areas.


All guesswork though.

First known case according to China, was in November.
Now what's the chances it was around a little earlier in Wuhan, and the Chinese are being a bit economical with the truth. It's quite likely imo.
October 2019 the world military games was held in Wuhan. Representatives from 140 countries were there. Over 9000 participants, that's not including support staff etc.

I'd say it could be a distinct possibility someone may have picked up the virus unknowingly, been asymptomatic, at brought it home far earlier than we all originally thought.

May of course be pie in the sky, but it's possible.


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[shmmeee]

First known case according to China, was in November.
Now what's the chances it was around a little earlier in Wuhan, and the Chinese are being a bit economical with the truth. It's quite likely imo.
October 2019 the world military games was held in Wuhan. Representatives from 140 countries were there. Over 9000 participants, that's not including support staff etc.

I'd say it could be a distinct possibility someone may have picked up the virus unknowingly, been asymptomatic, at brought it home far earlier than we all originally thought.

May of course be pie in the sky, but it's possible.


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Doesn’t explain why we didn’t see an outbreak until March though. The virus didn’t get more contagious recently so if it was around then it should’ve been ripping through the country killing thousands and it wasn’t.

 

[covmark]

Doesn’t explain why we didn’t see an outbreak until March though. The virus didn’t get more contagious recently so if it was around then it should’ve been ripping through the country killing thousands and it wasn’t.

Different strains maybe? Maybe it mutated? I don't know, as I say, could be pie in the sky. Doubt we'll ever know the whole truth.

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[CCFCSteve]

Sam Coates (sky) got the question in ! 27k home kits and 12k via satallites (not sure what that means) so about 40k tests sent out. So sounds like they’ve completed about 80k in the labs etc. Decent enough and good to see that daily capacity is there for the coming weeks/months

 

[wingy]

 

[Skybluefaz]

Lying fuckers.
Tbf it's not the lying because that's like saying water is wet. It's the smugness that Hancock delivers it with.