shmmeee
Well-Known Member
We’ve decided we can’t keep the entire economy on furlough, that means we need childcare. It’s an economic not medical decision.
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (190 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
We’ve decided we can’t keep the entire economy on furlough, that means we need childcare. It’s an economic not medical decision.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
We’ve decided we can’t keep the entire economy on furlough, that means we need childcare. It’s an economic not medical decision.
In so doing we've decided to give the entire economy COVID so let me out of my box
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Isn't this based on continuing restrictions? The report specifically says its not "predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19".The latest estimates from the CDC have an interesting breakdown of fatality rates by age group. The estimates also place flu as having a higher fatality rate than COVID for the under 50s, although both are of course very low. Those aged 70+ are put at around 2,000 times more likely to die from COVID than those under 20. Full data and modelling here:
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
They are all estimates with varying scenarios that change as more data is collected
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
You should be allowed out. As long as staff have the choice and where possible classes share teachers as little as possible I don’t see the issue. Especially if you’re a younger teacher.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Why not move your only warehouse and change to a new automated system at the time. Even better do it in the middle of a pandemic. Can't foresee any potential issues there.
Patients' access to vital NHS tests delayed by warehouse failure
Covid swabs and key tests for cancer could be unavailable after problems at diagnostics firm Roche.
www.bbc.co.uk
Alan Dugdales Moustache
Well-Known Member
What is ? London never being locked down ? It's a bedsit ridden breeding ground .
Skybluefaz
Well-Known Member
Also full of people who have moved there to work so probably don't have family to mix with, plus it's got a lot of people who can work from home in contrast to other areas of the country
Be honest, when was the last time you were actually in London?
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
No, it's the same shills that have called for it all along. That Carl Heneghan and Co, they've been wrong about everything to date yet continue unabated. According to Heneghan there would be no second wave because he thought the herd immunity threshold had been reached back in May.
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
I’d like to call for a lottery win as well and there’s about the same likelihood.
As the self appointed covid expert on here, how do you propose achieving Herd Immunity with no vaccine? It’s total bullshit.
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
It is an interesting theory though. I'm not saying do it, but if we take into account they say antibody immunity last between 3-6 months, and t-cell immunity forever, you've gotta assume its now doable, to at least get us through winter?
If im talking out my arse let me know
If im talking out my arse let me know
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Who said i was an expert you miserable old mug. Not once have you said anything positive on this whole board you salad sort it
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
When you say it is doable what do you consider an acceptable number of deaths to achieve herd immunity?
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
It's the same group who've always advocated similar, if you read who's responsible. Some responses to it however:
One critic said the “grotesque” plan amounted to a culling of sick and disabled people.
William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said the declaration seemed to be attacking the idea of mass, ongoing lockdowns, a proposal that nobody was suggesting. “After pointing out, correctly, the indirect damage caused by the pandemic, they respond that the answer is to increase the direct damage caused by it,” he said.
Long Covid: the evidence of lingering heart damage
Work by Hanage and others suggests Covid becomes more lethal than flu for people in their mid-30s and climbs exponentially from there, meaning that swathes of the population would need protecting. “Stating that you can keep the virus out of places by testing at a time when the White House has an apparently ongoing outbreak should illustrate how likely that is,” he said.
Another concern, he added, was that an uncontrolled outbreak among young and healthy people could leave many with long-term medical issues, including the “long Covid” disorders that have already affected young people
In a Twitter thread responding to the declaration, Gregg Gonsalves, an epidemiologist at Yale University, said shutdowns and other interventions were necessary to reduce rates of infection. With nearly half of the population having some underlying health risk for Covid-19, he said herd immunity strategies were about “culling the herd of the sick and disabled. It’s grotesque.”
And the lead quote in the arrival you screenshot.
Meanwhile, Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage), also criticised local measures and said new national restrictions were needed immediately.
Professor Edmunds said the government's current "light touch" measures are just "delaying the inevitable".
"We will at some point put very stringent measures in place because we will have to when hospitals start to really fill up," he told the BBC.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Scientists call for Covid herd immunity strategy for young
Critics describe proposal to isolate vulnerable, disabled and older people as ‘grotesque’
www.theguardian.com
Yep it's just the same handful of Covid denying cranks.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
It's groundhog day here, grasping for hope among the outliers, ignoring the consensus that says otherwise.
Tomorrow? Climate change and how some scientists say it isn't happening.
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Alright fair enough, you've all debunked it, just wanted opinions 
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Alright fair enough, you've all debunked it, just wanted opinions
Not debunked. It’s a valid argument to have, just needs to be had with data. I’ve said before I don’t think shielding is possible in reality. I’m still holding out hope that with experience this wave will prove nothing like the first in terms of deaths and we can avoid total lockdown in the future.
Alright fair enough, you've all debunked it, just wanted opinions
The fact is, nobody on here currently knows what the right solution is, and nor do the scientists, as nobody has a crystal ball. If a vaccine is finalised shortly, then protect people until vaccine can be mass circulated would appear best option. If vaccine takes 2-3 years to mass circulate and in the meantime they find that immunity lasts for a while for most (and you’re unlikely to catch again), I guess herd immunity would appear to be.
I haven’t looked into the south east numbers in detail either, however, IF (and I do mean if) they do remain lower then it could possibly to do with a far higher percentage of active people getting it the first time (so element of herd immunity - not a ‘let it rip’ type that everyone likes to mention but the more the fact that the more people who’ve had it, if immune, the harder it will be to spread quickly - logic not science based comment)
In addition, knowing a fair few who live down there, they have maybe taken it a more seriously over the summer and there are large quantities that remained WFH throughout.
As you say, needs the modellers to do some decent work on the data
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Agree on both points, particularly the latter given that population growth in and around London has been driven by commuters who can now WFH
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
That's true, and fair enough. Scientists will have a better idea than us though as they're more qualified, and have access to more data, and the ability to interpret it.
As with everything, the scientific consensus can change as more information comes to light (who knew blood didn't just pass from the left ventricle to the right one eh) but all we can do is go by the consensus of the majority of scientists. If they get it wrong it doesn't make their information and advice invalid, however - that's the dangerous approach we head down in deciding experts aren't experts.
jimmyhillsfanclub
Well-Known Member
I reckon London is just lagging......they got the 1st wave 1st...the North has got the 2nd wave 1st.
The lockdown was released way too soon here in the North West.....just as Andy Burnham & Steve Rotherham argued....so it didn't get surpressed as much as it did in London who were 3 weeks ahead. So, the North has started the 2nd wave from a higher base rate of infection.
Less folks in the North can WFH.
More folks in the north live in deprivation.
Large concentrations of student populations.
And of course, northerners are just a lot more sociable & love to Party.....
The lockdown was released way too soon here in the North West.....just as Andy Burnham & Steve Rotherham argued....so it didn't get surpressed as much as it did in London who were 3 weeks ahead. So, the North has started the 2nd wave from a higher base rate of infection.
Less folks in the North can WFH.
More folks in the north live in deprivation.
Large concentrations of student populations.
And of course, northerners are just a lot more sociable & love to Party.....
Sorry, just seen this. I was just talking population averages (highlighting the median age of Covid deaths) and obviously anyone taken earlier than they would’ve been, is awful as their life has been cut short.
The transmission point is an interesting one and I agree on a purely scientific level...however life’s more than that as it includes emotions, mental wellbeing
etc. This whole thing now is about minimising transmission not stopping it altogether (impossible unless we lockdown everyone until vaccine) so certain minimal risk situations like the comforting of a loved one should be given leeway in my view (unless ones showing symptoms obviously !!!)
ps Dave’s article the other day about clusters and back tracing is very interesting when looking at minimising transmission
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D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
I think we'd all agree with this. Of course, as with any rules that require a subjective judgement, if you relax it a little, some will try and take advantage. As ever, it's the balance of making sure people comply, with a human element. That's never an easy balance to get, tbf.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yeah in an ideal world we’d have the resource to do proper track and trace and shit down clusters.
Life expectancy was mostly pedantry but there is a serious point about assuming anyone past 80 has “had their time”
Yeah, I obviously didn’t mean it like that (sorry if it came across that way)
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
As many as it takes so long as I can believe the memes on Facebook or Instagram or Twitter that can blame others for everything that happens and it doesn’t affect me personally
Anyway we just need to be fearless and we will beat it even if we do get infected. The answer isn’t herd immunity it’s fearlessness and optimism and positivity
Wtaf
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Sweden tried it and eventually admitted defeat saying they got it wrong.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
We still don't know the full consequences of people who are basically alright, either. There's certainly an argument you hold off anything like herd immunity type scenarios until you can be sure they're not too debilitating.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Anyway, work now getting in a tizz about when is a cough a cough, and when should you not come in?
I was quite comfortable the cough I've had for the past month, and now the ever so slight shortness of breath, was linked to what usually happens in the colder damper weather for me. Now? I'm ever so slightly paranoid!
Guess this is our future for the next few months!
I was quite comfortable the cough I've had for the past month, and now the ever so slight shortness of breath, was linked to what usually happens in the colder damper weather for me. Now? I'm ever so slightly paranoid!
Guess this is our future for the next few months!