Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (13 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

New WHO estimate puts coronavirus death rate at only 0.13% * WorldNetDaily * by Art Moore

The WHO estimate that about 760 million people -- more than 20 times the confirmed cases -- have been infected by the coronavirus worldwide means the death rate is 0.13%

www.wnd.com

Read the article. it's a guestimate based on the flawed idea that you can just average all the worlds antibody testing.

A covid denier and a racist, you really are a catch.

 

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[David O'Day]

Sorry thought it was good news not fake crap

It's a laughable story

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Sorry thought it was good news not fake crap

The latest estimates from the CDC have an interesting breakdown of fatality rates by age group. The estimates also place flu as having a higher fatality rate than COVID for the under 50s, although both are of course very low. Those aged 70+ are put at around 2,000 times more likely to die from COVID than those under 20. Full data and modelling here:

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

 

[shmmeee]

Follow the law DOD ?! Come on. It’s crazy.

There are huge numbers of people running round saying ‘protect the elderly’, has anyone asked them what they want ?!

The median age of Covid deaths in this country is the same as the average life expectancy (around 80ish). I’d imagine most people in their 70s and 80s would actually chose to spend what time they have left seeing their grandchildren grow up, being comforted by a loved one, living their lives and ultimately taking their chances.

If there is risk around nhs capacity then I’m 100% behind enforcing restrictions and measures, but otherwise I think it should be down to the individual if they wanted to be hugged or comforted by a loved one - I’m saying that as someone who would currently chose not to hug their mum (unless at an extremely distressing time) as she is high risk and I wouldn’t forgive myself if I passed her Covid, however, it should be an individuals choice

Point of order: your life expectancy at 80 isn’t 80, that’s your life expectancy at birth. As you age and fail to die younger the mean extends.

Also there’s really no such thing as individual choice in a pandemic. Transmission is inevitable, every broken link in the chain slows the spread.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Point of order: your life expectancy at 80 isn’t 80, that’s your life expectancy at birth. As you age and fail to die younger the mean extends.

Also there’s really no such thing as individual choice in a pandemic. Transmission is inevitable, every broken link in the chain slows the spread.

Continuing to allow loads of school kids to mix keeps that chain very much intact.

 

[shmmeee]

Continuing to allow loads of school kids to mix keeps that chain very much intact.

We’ve decided we can’t keep the entire economy on furlough, that means we need childcare. It’s an economic not medical decision.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

We’ve decided we can’t keep the entire economy on furlough, that means we need childcare. It’s an economic not medical decision.

In so doing we've decided to give the entire economy COVID so let me out of my box

 

[chiefdave]

The latest estimates from the CDC have an interesting breakdown of fatality rates by age group. The estimates also place flu as having a higher fatality rate than COVID for the under 50s, although both are of course very low. Those aged 70+ are put at around 2,000 times more likely to die from COVID than those under 20. Full data and modelling here:

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

Isn't this based on continuing restrictions? The report specifically says its not "predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19".

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Isn't this based on continuing restrictions? The report specifically says its not "predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19".

They are all estimates with varying scenarios that change as more data is collected

 

[shmmeee]

In so doing we've decided to give the entire economy COVID so let me out of my box

You should be allowed out. As long as staff have the choice and where possible classes share teachers as little as possible I don’t see the issue. Especially if you’re a younger teacher.

 

[chiefdave]

Why not move your only warehouse and change to a new automated system at the time. Even better do it in the middle of a pandemic. Can't foresee any potential issues there.

Patients' access to vital NHS tests delayed by warehouse failure

Covid swabs and key tests for cancer could be unavailable after problems at diagnostics firm Roche.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

Great Alan Partridge take on things.

What is ? London never being locked down ? It's a bedsit ridden breeding ground .

 

[Skybluefaz]

Also full of people who have moved there to work so probably don't have family to mix with, plus it's got a lot of people who can work from home in contrast to other areas of the country

 

[chiefdave]

Not really looked at the numbers for London but if they are lower than the rest of the country then I hope someone is looking into why that is. You'd expect the tube to be a hotbed of transmission.

 

[SBT]

What is ? London never being locked down ? It's a bedsit ridden breeding ground .

Be honest, when was the last time you were actually in London?

 

[Saddlebrains]

Well well. Scientists now starting to call for herd immunity ...

 

[fernandopartridge]

Well well. Scientists now starting to call for herd immunity ...

No, it's the same shills that have called for it all along. That Carl Heneghan and Co, they've been wrong about everything to date yet continue unabated. According to Heneghan there would be no second wave because he thought the herd immunity threshold had been reached back in May.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Well well. Scientists now starting to call for herd immunity ...

I’d like to call for a lottery win as well and there’s about the same likelihood.

As the self appointed covid expert on here, how do you propose achieving Herd Immunity with no vaccine? It’s total bullshit.

 

[Saddlebrains]

It is an interesting theory though. I'm not saying do it, but if we take into account they say antibody immunity last between 3-6 months, and t-cell immunity forever, you've gotta assume its now doable, to at least get us through winter?

If im talking out my arse let me know

 

[Saddlebrains]

I’d like to call for a lottery win as well and there’s about the same likelihood.

As the self appointed covid expert on here, how do you propose achieving Herd Immunity with no vaccine? It’s total bullshit.

Who said i was an expert you miserable old mug. Not once have you said anything positive on this whole board you salad sort it

 

[chiefdave]

you've gotta assume its now doable

When you say it is doable what do you consider an acceptable number of deaths to achieve herd immunity?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Well well. Scientists now starting to call for herd immunity ...

It's the same group who've always advocated similar, if you read who's responsible. Some responses to it however:

One critic said the “grotesque” plan amounted to a culling of sick and disabled people.


William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said the declaration seemed to be attacking the idea of mass, ongoing lockdowns, a proposal that nobody was suggesting. “After pointing out, correctly, the indirect damage caused by the pandemic, they respond that the answer is to increase the direct damage caused by it,” he said.

Long Covid: the evidence of lingering heart damage

Work by Hanage and others suggests Covid becomes more lethal than flu for people in their mid-30s and climbs exponentially from there, meaning that swathes of the population would need protecting. “Stating that you can keep the virus out of places by testing at a time when the White House has an apparently ongoing outbreak should illustrate how likely that is,” he said.

Another concern, he added, was that an uncontrolled outbreak among young and healthy people could leave many with long-term medical issues, including the “long Covid” disorders that have already affected young people

In a Twitter thread responding to the declaration, Gregg Gonsalves, an epidemiologist at Yale University, said shutdowns and other interventions were necessary to reduce rates of infection. With nearly half of the population having some underlying health risk for Covid-19, he said herd immunity strategies were about “culling the herd of the sick and disabled. It’s grotesque.”

And the lead quote in the arrival you screenshot.

Meanwhile, Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage), also criticised local measures and said new national restrictions were needed immediately.

Professor Edmunds said the government's current "light touch" measures are just "delaying the inevitable".

"We will at some point put very stringent measures in place because we will have to when hospitals start to really fill up," he told the BBC.

 

[David O'Day]

Scientists call for Covid herd immunity strategy for young

Critics describe proposal to isolate vulnerable, disabled and older people as ‘grotesque’

www.theguardian.com

Yep it's just the same handful of Covid denying cranks.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

No, it's the same shills that have called for it all along. That Carl Heneghan and Co, they've been wrong about everything to date yet continue unabated. According to Heneghan there would be no second wave because he thought the herd immunity threshold had been reached back in May.

It's groundhog day here, grasping for hope among the outliers, ignoring the consensus that says otherwise.

Tomorrow? Climate change and how some scientists say it isn't happening.

 

[shmmeee]

I’d just say a scientist writing a letter isn’t science. If they had a point they’d write a paper. They didn’t.

 

[Saddlebrains]

Alright fair enough, you've all debunked it, just wanted opinions

 

[shmmeee]

Alright fair enough, you've all debunked it, just wanted opinions

Not debunked. It’s a valid argument to have, just needs to be had with data. I’ve said before I don’t think shielding is possible in reality. I’m still holding out hope that with experience this wave will prove nothing like the first in terms of deaths and we can avoid total lockdown in the future.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Alright fair enough, you've all debunked it, just wanted opinions

The fact is, nobody on here currently knows what the right solution is, and nor do the scientists, as nobody has a crystal ball. If a vaccine is finalised shortly, then protect people until vaccine can be mass circulated would appear best option. If vaccine takes 2-3 years to mass circulate and in the meantime they find that immunity lasts for a while for most (and you’re unlikely to catch again), I guess herd immunity would appear to be.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Not really looked at the numbers for London but if they are lower than the rest of the country then I hope someone is looking into why that is. You'd expect the tube to be a hotbed of transmission.

I haven’t looked into the south east numbers in detail either, however, IF (and I do mean if) they do remain lower then it could possibly to do with a far higher percentage of active people getting it the first time (so element of herd immunity - not a ‘let it rip’ type that everyone likes to mention but the more the fact that the more people who’ve had it, if immune, the harder it will be to spread quickly - logic not science based comment)

In addition, knowing a fair few who live down there, they have maybe taken it a more seriously over the summer and there are large quantities that remained WFH throughout.

As you say, needs the modellers to do some decent work on the data

 

[fernandopartridge]

I haven’t looked into the south east numbers in detail either, however, IF (and I do mean if) they do remain lower then it could possibly to do with a far higher percentage of active people getting it the first time (so element of herd immunity - not a ‘let it rip’ type that everyone likes to mention but the more the fact that the more people who’ve had it, if immune, the harder it will be to spread quickly - logic not science based comment)

In addition, knowing a fair few who live down there, they have maybe taken it a more seriously over the summer and there are large quantities that remained WFH throughout.

As you say, needs the modellers to do some decent work on the data

Agree on both points, particularly the latter given that population growth in and around London has been driven by commuters who can now WFH

 

[Deleted member 5849]

The fact is, nobody on here currently knows what the right solution is, and nor do the scientists

That's true, and fair enough. Scientists will have a better idea than us though as they're more qualified, and have access to more data, and the ability to interpret it.

As with everything, the scientific consensus can change as more information comes to light (who knew blood didn't just pass from the left ventricle to the right one eh) but all we can do is go by the consensus of the majority of scientists. If they get it wrong it doesn't make their information and advice invalid, however - that's the dangerous approach we head down in deciding experts aren't experts.

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

I reckon London is just lagging......they got the 1st wave 1st...the North has got the 2nd wave 1st.

The lockdown was released way too soon here in the North West.....just as Andy Burnham & Steve Rotherham argued....so it didn't get surpressed as much as it did in London who were 3 weeks ahead. So, the North has started the 2nd wave from a higher base rate of infection.

Less folks in the North can WFH.

More folks in the north live in deprivation.

Large concentrations of student populations.

And of course, northerners are just a lot more sociable & love to Party.....

 

[CCFCSteve]

Point of order: your life expectancy at 80 isn’t 80, that’s your life expectancy at birth. As you age and fail to die younger the mean extends.

Also there’s really no such thing as individual choice in a pandemic. Transmission is inevitable, every broken link in the chain slows the spread.

Sorry, just seen this. I was just talking population averages (highlighting the median age of Covid deaths) and obviously anyone taken earlier than they would’ve been, is awful as their life has been cut short.

The transmission point is an interesting one and I agree on a purely scientific level...however life’s more than that as it includes emotions, mental wellbeing
etc. This whole thing now is about minimising transmission not stopping it altogether (impossible unless we lockdown everyone until vaccine) so certain minimal risk situations like the comforting of a loved one should be given leeway in my view (unless ones showing symptoms obviously !!!)

ps Dave’s article the other day about clusters and back tracing is very interesting when looking at minimising transmission

 

[Deleted member 5849]

so certain minimal risk situations like the comforting of a loved one should be given leeway in my view

I think we'd all agree with this. Of course, as with any rules that require a subjective judgement, if you relax it a little, some will try and take advantage. As ever, it's the balance of making sure people comply, with a human element. That's never an easy balance to get, tbf.

 

[shmmeee]

Sorry, just seen this. I was just talking population averages (highlighting the median age of Covid deaths) and obviously anyone taken earlier than they would’ve been, is awful as their life has been cut short.

The transmission point is an interesting one and I agree on a purely scientific level...however life’s more than that as it includes emotions, mental wellbeing
etc. This whole thing now is about minimising transmission not stopping it altogether (impossible unless we lockdown everyone until vaccine) so certain minimal risk situations like the comforting of a loved one should be given leeway in my view

ps Dave’s article the other day about clusters and back tracing is very interesting when looking at minimising transmission

Yeah in an ideal world we’d have the resource to do proper track and trace and shit down clusters.

Life expectancy was mostly pedantry but there is a serious point about assuming anyone past 80 has “had their time”