Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (138 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

I know what lag is. We can only go on what data we are currently seeing.

we are a little bit in the unknown. As the vaccine may stop the lag of people testing positive to hospitalisation.

the increased rates of discharges is keeping the rate steady. So nothing to concerning at the moment.

Others on here are saying the rates are up yet that’s not true

would be interesting to see stay rates. As wonder if people are spending less time in hospital and not needing icu.
would be interesting to see stay rates. As wonder if people are spending less time in hospital and not needing icu.

once again you are failing to grasp what a lag is and go back to talking about current figures.

I'll explain it to you

An increase in case is going to lead to an increase in hospital trips 2 weeks down the line. By the time you see the up tick it's too late as you will have to deal with at least 2 weeks of increased hospital visits by that point. How many people are currently in hospital has sweet fa to do with this.

 

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[David O'Day]

Ridiculous. You’re obsessing over the love life of the lead of a project as some kind of proof of the quality of his model. What? Do you hear yourself?

Put the tabloids down and have a cup of tea.

It's text book study in confirmation bias

 

[jordan210]

Ridiculous. You’re obsessing over the love life of the lead of a project as some kind of proof of the quality of his model. What? Do you hear yourself?

Put the tabloids down and have a cup of tea.

the models that have never been right. How many deaths did he predict for multiple waves that have not been close?

you can’t tell everyone you need a lockdown and then not follow basic rules and still have creditably

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Of the Indian variant? None. But then it didn’t exist last summer. Don’t see the problem with being cautious while we’re learning this latest variant.

The Indian variant isn't a threat. The vaccines work against it. Speed of transmission isn't really an issue either as the people most likely to be seriously ill from it have already had said vaccines.

Now we have the Thai one, which will probably become the Andorran one in a couple of weeks, maybe even 'The Vatican' version if we are really lucky.

 

[David O'Day]

the models that have never been right. How many deaths did he predict for multiple waves that have not been close?

you can’t tell everyone you need a lockdown and then not follow basic rules and still have creditably

You mean the models that change over time when new data and evidence is plugged into them?

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

You mean the models that change over time when new data and evidence is plugged into them?

Yes, which is why we have scenarios:

 

[jordan210]

once again you are failing to grasp what a lag is and go back to talking about current figures.

I'll explain it to you

An increase in case is going to lead to an increase in hospital trips 2 weeks down the line. By the time you see the up tick it's too late as you will have to deal with at least 2 weeks of increased hospital visits by that point. How many people are currently in hospital has sweet fa to do with this.

As I said I know what lag is. todays figures in hospital is bassed the the numbers we had two weeks ago. The Indian variant has been about for more than two weeks.

Two weeks ago 2,193 tested positive 94 people went to hospital. That was still a drop in hospitalisations compared to months before.

The vaccines work. So if cases are going up and hospitalisation isn't. Not an issue.

 

[jordan210]

You mean the models that change over time when new data and evidence is plugged into them?

Each time sage have published the models and scenarios they have used they have been wrong. They had the opportunity to have the models availably to allow people to play about but they chose not to.

 

[David O'Day]

As I said I know what lag is. todays figures in hospital is bassed the the numbers we had two weeks ago. The Indian variant has been about for more than two weeks.

Two weeks ago 2,193 tested positive 94 people went to hospital. That was still a drop in hospitalisations compared to months before.

But it is spreading now and cases are trending in the wrong way which will mean there will be more hospitalisations in the future. This is the issue and basically the current bed occupancy rate has fuck all to do with this.

 

[David O'Day]

Each time sage have published the models and scenarios they have used they have been wrong. They had the opportunity to have the models availably to allow people to play about but they chose not to.

So you admit you don't know about and haven't seen the current models?

Models change mate, this is the very nature of them.

 

[jordan210]

But it is spreading now and cases are trending in the wrong way which will mean there will be more hospitalisations in the future. This is the issue and basically the current bed occupancy rate has fuck all to do with this.

No it doesn't as the vaccine works. So who is going to hospital ?

 

[David O'Day]

No it doesn't as the vaccine works. So who is going to hospital ?

As FP pointed out there might be lower rate of hospitalisation but if cases continue to increase so will hospitalisations. This is not up for debate and is basic fucking science.

 

[jordan210]

So you admit you don't know about and haven't seen the current models?

Models change mate, this is the very nature of them.

No one has seen them. As only uploaded after so many months.

unlocking was based on scenarios and not current up to date models.

 

[David O'Day]

No one has seen them. As only uploaded after so many months.

unlocking was based on scenarios and not current up to date models.

bangs head on desk

 

[jordan210]

As FP pointed out there might be lower rate of hospitalisation but if cases continue to increase so will hospitalisations. This is not up for debate and is basic fucking science.

I havent said that. You have been arguing that we are going to be fucked due to data lag and the models are right.

Yet an up tick in cases with the amount of people vaccinated should not course issue.

 

[jordan210]

bangs head on desk

Unlocking was and is based on dates and not the data. Hence why each stage is only reviewed at a certain time. It could never be brought forward.

 

[PVA]

That graph is tracking only very slightly under 'scenario 4', which is a gradual lifting of restrictions, ie similar to what we are doing.

The other scenarios are much quicker easing of restrictions so of course its tracking under them.

 

[Ian1779]

Now we have the Thai one, which will probably become the Andorran one in a couple of weeks, maybe even 'The Vatican' version if we are really lucky.

So what you’re saying is our variant exposure list mirrors that of our post-Brexit trade deals plan.

 

[David O'Day]

I havent said that. You have been arguing that we are going to be fucked due to data lag and the models are right.

Yet an up tick in cases with the amount of people vaccinated should not course issue.

No i said the current hospitalisation rate has no baring on what it will be in 2 weeks etc,

You keep blarting on about todays figures which are meaningless as the simple reality as cases increase so will hospitalisations.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Of the Indian variant? None. But then it didn’t exist last summer. Don’t see the problem with being cautious while we’re learning this latest variant.

We will have a very large proportion of the adult population at least single vaccinated and about half double vaccinated by 3 weeks’ time. In my mind that levels the playing field when summer conditions are thrown in.

Taking away the light at the end of the tunnel again will be a bridge too far for some

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

No i said the current hospitalisation rate has no baring on what it will be in 2 weeks etc,

You keep blarting on about todays figures which are meaningless as the simple reality as cases increase so will hospitalisations.

The whole point of this stage is to verify if vaccines cut that link.

 

[Sick Boy]

Is there a huge rejection of take up in Italy?

I honestly think there has to be amongst older demographics, from what I’ve read younger generations are more receptive.

 

[skybluetony176]

No it doesn't as the vaccine works. So who is going to hospital ?

Over 500 people who’ve had one dose so far.

 

[wingy]

the models that have never been right. How many deaths did he predict for multiple waves that have not been close?

you can’t tell everyone you need a lockdown and then not follow basic rules and still have creditably

Well I think they told the PM without the circuit breaker there could be at least 40 k lives lost over the Autumn/winter .
What happened?

 

[David O'Day]

Over 500 people who’ve had one dose so far.

It's a weird that he can't grasp that even at current rates of 2000 cases 90 - 100 hospitalisations means that the current cases are likely to led to 180 to 200 hospitalisations a day and if it increases to say 6000 cases a day that could be 270 to 300 hospitalisations a day. Over a week you could have 1890 to 2100 hospitalisations and that is on a very mild up tick in cases.

No one is saying lockdown again but it does need watching.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Well I think they told the PM without the circuit breaker there could be at least 40 k lives lost over the Autumn/winter .
What happened?

Nobody was vaccinated at that point. All we need is time to properly understand what vaccines can do to prevent hospitalisation. Questions also to be made about how long after vaccination the recent hospital patients were infected.

The other big question is how much longer do we keep this going before we just write off any business that needs indoor service

 

[jordan210]

It's a weird that he can't grasp that even at current rates of 2000 cases 90 - 100 hospitalisations means that the current cases are likely to led to 180 to 200 hospitalisations a day and if it increases to say 6000 cases a day that could be 270 to 300 hospitalisations a day. Over a week you could have 1890 to 2100 hospitalisations and that is on a very mild up tick in cases.

No one is saying lockdown again but it does need watching.

If you look deep in to the data. Take Bolton for example (as the mayor hotspot). Currently testing positive heat map shows the high risk groups for hospitalisation and death are not testing positive in age numbers. So at current rates there is no guarantee that rates will double. As the people catching covid are lower risk groups.

This does highlight how important being double vaccinated is.





As I dont think we are going to agree. I think its best we see what happens over the coming weeks. one of us will be right or both complexly wrong

 

[fernandopartridge]

How many died last summer when nobody was vaccinated?

Similar numbers to what we're seeing now

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Some people on this thread really aren't doing themselves any favours when it comes to shifting the 'lockdown lover' labels.

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

So what you’re saying is our variant exposure list mirrors that of our post-Brexit trade deals plan.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think I've seen another thread on this forum that might be more relevant.

 

[wingy]

Nobody was vaccinated at that point. All we need is time to properly understand what vaccines can do to prevent hospitalisation. Questions also to be made about how long after vaccination the recent hospital patients were infected.

The other big question is how much longer do we keep this going before we just write off any business that needs indoor service

Yes bsb .
Merely was stating when the modellers were potentially right by 50% underestimate rather than over.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I know what lag is. We can only go on what data we are currently seeing.

we are a little bit in the unknown. As the vaccine may stop the lag of people testing positive to hospitalisation.

the increased rates of discharges is keeping the rate steady. So nothing to concerning at the moment.

Others on here are saying the rates are up yet that’s not true

would be interesting to see stay rates. As wonder if people are spending less time in hospital and not needing icu.
would be interesting to see stay rates. As wonder if people are spending less time in hospital and not needing icu.

I think this is correct currently, but we have to wait and see. If the average age of cases is now under 30 then unless the Indian variant is more severe for younger age groups (hopefully not) then the risk of significantly increased hospitalisations would’ve reduced greatly. By all accounts at the moment patients being admitted are younger and symptoms are less severe so they’re not ending up in ICU and being released quicker. Let’s hope it stays that way

It’s right for the government not to commit to the full reopening yet as (someone else already said, Andy I think) we’ve still got over three weeks of data to come. But fingers crossed the vaccine roll out will continue to reduce transmission and severity of illness. Logic suggests that should be the case but this has been a weird 14 months ! Ultimately the decision will come down to what risk we are happy/willing to live with (as this won’t be going away for a while yet)

 

[oakey]

We will have a very large proportion of the adult population at least single vaccinated and about half double vaccinated by 3 weeks’ time. In my mind that levels the playing field when summer conditions are thrown in.

Taking away the light at the end of the tunnel again will be a bridge too far for some

I'm feeling giddy on this just levelled playing field, dazzled by the aura of the recently extinguished light at the end of the tunnel, teetering on the end of this bridge.

 

[PVA]

Some people on this thread really aren't doing themselves any favours when it comes to shifting the 'lockdown lover' labels.

Nobody on here is a lockdown lover as far as I can see. Once again you're reading what isn't there.

Do you have any examples of unacceptable media coverage?

 

[shmmeee]

Yes, which is why we have scenarios:

View attachment 20297

No it’s not. Read the fucking paper and not some right wing preteens Twitter account FFS.

The “scenarios” are different lockdown easing methods not based on the unknowns in the data.