Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
How many died last summer when nobody was vaccinated?
There is no denying these numbers are going in the wrong direction, especially as hospitalisations lag cases and deaths lag those. Let's just hope it's a bump in the road and the vaccines stop it becoming wave 3:
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Once again you fail to understand what a lag is.
The past data shows that the increase in hospitalisations before came about 2 weeks after the increase in cases started so thusly the will not appear in the date now will they so it is not what is the hospitalisation rate now it is what will it potentially be in a few weeks.
Hospitalisations have not dropped, they have bobbed about and stayed roughly the same as well.
Of the Indian variant? None. But then it didn’t exist last summer. Don’t see the problem with being cautious while we’re learning this latest variant.How many died last summer when nobody was vaccinated?
He said yesterday that it now hangs in the balance. Yet the data is still better than he predicted.
Attacking.... Lol Neil cant even stick to lockdown rules as wanted a bit of action. He has history of being massively wrong.
I know what lag is. We can only go on what data we are currently seeing.
we are a little bit in the unknown. As the vaccine may stop the lag of people testing positive to hospitalisation.
the increased rates of discharges is keeping the rate steady. So nothing to concerning at the moment.
Others on here are saying the rates are up yet that’s not true
would be interesting to see stay rates. As wonder if people are spending less time in hospital and not needing icu.
would be interesting to see stay rates. As wonder if people are spending less time in hospital and not needing icu.
Ridiculous. You’re obsessing over the love life of the lead of a project as some kind of proof of the quality of his model. What? Do you hear yourself?
Put the tabloids down and have a cup of tea.
Ridiculous. You’re obsessing over the love life of the lead of a project as some kind of proof of the quality of his model. What? Do you hear yourself?
Put the tabloids down and have a cup of tea.
Of the Indian variant? None. But then it didn’t exist last summer. Don’t see the problem with being cautious while we’re learning this latest variant.
the models that have never been right. How many deaths did he predict for multiple waves that have not been close?
you can’t tell everyone you need a lockdown and then not follow basic rules and still have creditably
once again you are failing to grasp what a lag is and go back to talking about current figures.
I'll explain it to you
An increase in case is going to lead to an increase in hospital trips 2 weeks down the line. By the time you see the up tick it's too late as you will have to deal with at least 2 weeks of increased hospital visits by that point. How many people are currently in hospital has sweet fa to do with this.
You mean the models that change over time when new data and evidence is plugged into them?
As I said I know what lag is. todays figures in hospital is bassed the the numbers we had two weeks ago. The Indian variant has been about for more than two weeks.
Two weeks ago 2,193 tested positive 94 people went to hospital. That was still a drop in hospitalisations compared to months before.
Each time sage have published the models and scenarios they have used they have been wrong. They had the opportunity to have the models availably to allow people to play about but they chose not to.
But it is spreading now and cases are trending in the wrong way which will mean there will be more hospitalisations in the future. This is the issue and basically the current bed occupancy rate has fuck all to do with this.
No it doesn't as the vaccine works. So who is going to hospital ?
So you admit you don't know about and haven't seen the current models?
Models change mate, this is the very nature of them.
No one has seen them. As only uploaded after so many months.
unlocking was based on scenarios and not current up to date models.
As FP pointed out there might be lower rate of hospitalisation but if cases continue to increase so will hospitalisations. This is not up for debate and is basic fucking science.
bangs head on desk
So what you’re saying is our variant exposure list mirrors that of our post-Brexit trade deals plan.Now we have the Thai one, which will probably become the Andorran one in a couple of weeks, maybe even 'The Vatican' version if we are really lucky.
I havent said that. You have been arguing that we are going to be fucked due to data lag and the models are right.
Yet an up tick in cases with the amount of people vaccinated should not course issue.
Of the Indian variant? None. But then it didn’t exist last summer. Don’t see the problem with being cautious while we’re learning this latest variant.
No i said the current hospitalisation rate has no baring on what it will be in 2 weeks etc,
You keep blarting on about todays figures which are meaningless as the simple reality as cases increase so will hospitalisations.
I honestly think there has to be amongst older demographics, from what I’ve read younger generations are more receptive.Is there a huge rejection of take up in Italy?
Over 500 people who’ve had one dose so far.No it doesn't as the vaccine works. So who is going to hospital ?
Well I think they told the PM without the circuit breaker there could be at least 40 k lives lost over the Autumn/winter .the models that have never been right. How many deaths did he predict for multiple waves that have not been close?
you can’t tell everyone you need a lockdown and then not follow basic rules and still have creditably
Over 500 people who’ve had one dose so far.
Well I think they told the PM without the circuit breaker there could be at least 40 k lives lost over the Autumn/winter .
What happened?
It's a weird that he can't grasp that even at current rates of 2000 cases 90 - 100 hospitalisations means that the current cases are likely to led to 180 to 200 hospitalisations a day and if it increases to say 6000 cases a day that could be 270 to 300 hospitalisations a day. Over a week you could have 1890 to 2100 hospitalisations and that is on a very mild up tick in cases.
No one is saying lockdown again but it does need watching.
Similar numbers to what we're seeing nowHow many died last summer when nobody was vaccinated?
So what you’re saying is our variant exposure list mirrors that of our post-Brexit trade deals plan.
Yes bsb .Nobody was vaccinated at that point. All we need is time to properly understand what vaccines can do to prevent hospitalisation. Questions also to be made about how long after vaccination the recent hospital patients were infected.
The other big question is how much longer do we keep this going before we just write off any business that needs indoor service
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