Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (232 Viewers)

[fernandopartridge]

For anybody interested, it looks like the HSJ had made their articles open access at the moment (you usually need a subscription to access them). This really is a far more reliable place to go for NHS type news than the MSM:

Exclusive: Nightingale largely empty as ICUs handle surge

 

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[tisza]

The reason they're coming out of lockdown or talking about it is the rate of infection is coming down. It isn't because they've bought a load of masks.

It would be a ridiculous proposition to come out of lockdown based on the premise of everybody wearing masks.

Poland easing up but if you go out side you have to wear a mask or a scarf across your face

 

[fernandopartridge]

Another 813 hospital deaths as of 5pm yesterday

5252 more positive tests from 11789 tested, not very clear about the parameters for the data though, i.e. is that 5252 from that figure of 11789 or from the cumulative figure?

Either way, I don't think lockdown should end any time soon even though I reckon the govt want to go that way (hence the OBR report that nobody asked for)

 

[CCFCSteve]

Another 813 hospital deaths as of 5pm yesterday

5252 more positive tests from 11789 tested, not very clear about the parameters for the data though, i.e. is that 5252 from that figure of 11789 or from the cumulative figure?

Either way, I don't think lockdown should end any time soon even though I reckon the govt want to go that way (hence the OBR report that nobody asked for)

Agreed. Rumour is early May at the earliest Fernando.

ps in terms of the confirmed cases it’s 5k from around 14982 tests over 11879 people tested (some obviously tested twice). I think these were tests carried out on 13 April

 

[David O'Day]

It's going to be june before they can start to loosen

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[shmmeee]

Another 813 hospital deaths as of 5pm yesterday

5252 more positive tests from 11789 tested, not very clear about the parameters for the data though, i.e. is that 5252 from that figure of 11789 or from the cumulative figure?

Either way, I don't think lockdown should end any time soon even though I reckon the govt want to go that way (hence the OBR report that nobody asked for)

Still a bank holiday. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. If we’re below 1k it’s looking very much like we’re peaking

 

[Brylowes]

For anybody interested, it looks like the HSJ had made their articles open access at the moment (you usually need a subscription to access them). This really is a far more reliable place to go for NHS type news than the MSM:

Exclusive: Nightingale largely empty as ICUs handle surge

Could there be a darker reason (even partially) as to why ICUs are so far handling the surge
ie; the extremely high numbers of deaths being recorded in hospitals ‘freeing up beds ?

 

[David O'Day]

Could there be a darker reason (even partially) as to why ICUs are so far handling the surge
ie; the extremely high numbers of deaths being recorded in hospitals ‘freeing up beds ?

No, that is highly unlikely. The NHS surge plans are at the moment working.

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[fernandopartridge]

No, that is highly unlikely. The NHS surge plans are at the moment working.

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Yeah, Manchester FT is only at 58% of ICU capacity currently

 

[Flying Fokker]

For anybody interested, it looks like the HSJ had made their articles open access at the moment (you usually need a subscription to access them). This really is a far more reliable place to go for NHS type news than the MSM:

Exclusive: Nightingale largely empty as ICUs handle surge

A couple of comments that indicate things are currently within capacity....with a thought provoking observation for the over 70’s

• 
  Anonymous#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:14 April 2020 16:07
  
  Totally agree with Anon 15:31. The model elsewhere in the UK is much better - use the nightingales for step-down and the expand critical care at the acute hospitals. London nightingale was always going to be a massive white elephant and is nothing more than a cheap publicity stunt by HMG.
  
  I work at the busiest hospital for COVID cases in the UK (per head of population). Over half our current inpatients are COVID. Yet, we are not only coping, but coping well. We have three empty wards and potential to double our ventilated patient beds before we would have to consider sending patients out to other centres. We have even kept our cancer surgery going at our cold site.
  
  The curve has been flattened, we are coping with the surge, the key now is the long game. The lockdown with ratchet back with younger and fit people allowed to work again, but it is going to be 12 to 18 months until vulnerable/shielded patients will be allowed out. We need a medium term solution to keeping COVID capacity at moderate levels whilst restarting elective services. Everything needs to be balanced.
  
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• Anonymous#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:14 April 2020 15:31
  
  Ok, but with several million pounds of kit then if it were being used to offload the post ICU patients that would be low risk, and would allow acute trusts to better support their ICUs.
  Otherwise they really are white elephants. This is where the Northern Nightingale model is much smarter.
  
  
  

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Another 813 hospital deaths as of 5pm yesterday

5252 more positive tests from 11789 tested, not very clear about the parameters for the data though, i.e. is that 5252 from that figure of 11789 or from the cumulative figure?

Either way, I don't think lockdown should end any time soon even though I reckon the govt want to go that way (hence the OBR report that nobody asked for)

Deffo needs to be 3-6 weeks longer before we somewhat start loosening but if it goes on for months and months more people will die from the long term effects (job losses, depression) it’s hard to find a balance for the long term thinking

 

[Flying Fokker]

Deffo needs to be 3-6 weeks longer before we somewhat start loosening but if it goes on for months and months more people will die from the long term effects (job losses, depression) it’s hard to find a balance for the long term thinking

You’re a few pages ahead of me! We’d be in shit street if that scenario pans out. Although suggestions that the economy could contract by 35% is one of the forecasts.

 

[David O'Day]

Deffo needs to be 3-6 weeks longer before we somewhat start loosening but if it goes on for months and months more people will die from the long term effects (job losses, depression) it’s hard to find a balance for the long term thinking

More people will not die from any long term economic effects than will die from the virus.

It's up to the government to stimulate the economy and as they don't understand demand I fear they will fail 1

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[fernandopartridge]

More people will not die from any long term economic effects than will die from the virus.

It's up to the government to stimulate the economy and as they don't understand demand I fear they will fail 1

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Or is it an implicit admittance by the usual tory way of doing things that is what will happen?

 

[Grendel]

Deffo needs to be 3-6 weeks longer before we somewhat start loosening but if it goes on for months and months more people will die from the long term effects (job losses, depression) it’s hard to find a balance for the long term thinking

Correct and that’s why we have governments making tough calls not “experts” on keyboard with twitter and pretty graphs as their armoury

 

[Grendel]

More people will not die from any long term economic effects than will die from the virus.

It's up to the government to stimulate the economy and as they don't understand demand I fear they will fail 1

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How would you stimulate a non producing economy David - I’m all ears

 

[David O'Day]

Or is it an implicit admittance by the usual tory way of doing things that is what will happen?

Preparing people to except it as unavoidable when it very possible to weaken the slump

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[David O'Day]

Preparing people to except it as unavoidable when it very possible to weaken the slump

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You need to create demand, the economy will lots of spare capacity but it's the demand side of the economy that is the issue.

The paradox of thrift will be in play so it's very important to spend money to create demand

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[Ian1779]

Deffo needs to be 3-6 weeks longer before we somewhat start loosening but if it goes on for months and months more people will die from the long term effects (job losses, depression) it’s hard to find a balance for the long term thinking

3-6 weeks is still sensible. I would suggest that if the crisis is such we are still having to lockdown in 2/3 months time that something really serious has occurred and salvaging the economy will pale into insignificance.

 

[chiefdave]

A couple of comments that indicate things are currently within capacity....with a thought provoking observation for the over 70’s

• 
  Anonymous#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:14 April 2020 16:07
  
  Totally agree with Anon 15:31. The model elsewhere in the UK is much better - use the nightingales for step-down and the expand critical care at the acute hospitals. London nightingale was always going to be a massive white elephant and is nothing more than a cheap publicity stunt by HMG.
  
  I work at the busiest hospital for COVID cases in the UK (per head of population). Over half our current inpatients are COVID. Yet, we are not only coping, but coping well. We have three empty wards and potential to double our ventilated patient beds before we would have to consider sending patients out to other centres. We have even kept our cancer surgery going at our cold site.
  
  The curve has been flattened, we are coping with the surge, the key now is the long game. The lockdown with ratchet back with younger and fit people allowed to work again, but it is going to be 12 to 18 months until vulnerable/shielded patients will be allowed out. We need a medium term solution to keeping COVID capacity at moderate levels whilst restarting elective services. Everything needs to be balanced.
  
  Unsuitable or offensive? Report comment
  
  Vote upYou have already voted0Vote downYou have already voted0
• Anonymous#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:14 April 2020 15:31
  
  Ok, but with several million pounds of kit then if it were being used to offload the post ICU patients that would be low risk, and would allow acute trusts to better support their ICUs.
  Otherwise they really are white elephants. This is where the Northern Nightingale model is much smarter.
  
  

The people on that site need more reliable sources like we have on here and then they'd know that someone's neighbours cousin has said that Walsgrave is overflowing and can't cope.

 

[PVA]

Correct and that’s why we have governments making tough calls not “experts” on keyboard with twitter and pretty graphs as their armoury

Well all the pretty graphs and many experts show that the government locked down too late.

Just because they are the government does not automatically make them correct and everyone else wrong (I know that's how it works in your Tory mind though).

 

[shmmeee]

Well all the pretty graphs and many experts show that the government locked down too late.

Just because they are the government does not automatically make them correct and everyone else wrong (I know that's how it works in your Tory mind though).

Funny thing is the government is using the exact same “pretty graphs” that Grendel said were shite.

 

[Grendel]

You need to create demand, the economy will lots of spare capacity but it's the demand side of the economy that is the issue.

The paradox of thrift will be in play so it's very important to spend money to create demand

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David mentioning a economic theory that relates to an economy where consumers have large savings rather than relying on expenditure via additional credit I do find bewildering

 

[Sick Boy]

Deffo needs to be 3-6 weeks longer before we somewhat start loosening but if it goes on for months and months more people will die from the long term effects (job losses, depression) it’s hard to find a balance for the long term thinking

I would think the UK is more likely to be 5/6 weeks away but with some sort of return to work within that time for certain types of jobs.

 

[Grendel]

Funny thing is the government is using the exact same “pretty graphs” that Grendel said were shite.

Not to compare countries as it’s frequently acknowledged that each country has a very different way of recording deaths

 

[David O'Day]

David mentioning a economic theory that relates to an economy where consumers have large savings rather than relying on expenditure via additional credit I do find bewildering

No grenners.

The paradox of thrift is not just about the size oc peoples savings is it.

It's the economic paradox that happens in downturns. Rational thinking states that it is good to reduce personal spending in the time of economic trouble, the paradox is that if too many people reduce their spending it reduces demand in the economy and is worse for the state of the economy.

It has nothing to with having large savings so once again you have shown yourself to have fuck all knowledge of anything you talk about.

Back on ignore you go

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[Grendel]

No grenners.

The paradox of thrift is not just about the size oc peoples savings is it.

It's the economic paradox that happens in downturns. Rational thinking states that it is good to reduce personal spending in the time of economic trouble, the paradox is that if too many people reduce their spending it reduces demand in the economy and is worse of the state of the economy.

It has nothing to with having large savings so once again you have shown yourself to have fuck all knowledge of anything you talk about.

Back on ignore you go

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So you would stimulate spending David when people actually have no funds to spend and have a natural adversity to risk due to exposure - how in government would you overcome this dichotomy David - to enact this tired Keynsian theory in practical terms what would you do to increase consumer confidence and spending and what safeguards would you have to protect those in society if the consequence of borrowing does not result in the desired fiscal stimulus?

Why pretend I’m in ignore David?

What do you go for a living? I’m thinking you have a GCSE in economics and are having a rather long break

 

[Ring Of Steel]

So you would stimulate spending David when people actually have no funds to spend and have a natural adversity to risk due to exposure - how in government would you overcome this dichotomy David - to enact this tired Keynsian theory in practical terms what would you do to increase consumer confidence and spending and what safeguards would you have to protect those in society if the consequence of borrowing does not result in the desired fiscal stimulus?

Why pretend I’m in ignore David?

What do you go for a living? I’m thinking you have a GCSE in economics and are having a rather long break

What’s the thing you have with this guy of repeating his name multiple times?

 

[Grendel]

What’s the thing you have with this guy of repeating his name multiple times?

Whets his thing with pretending I’m on ignore and what are you asking for?

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Whets his thing with pretending I’m on ignore and what are you asking for?

lol, so you’re salty that he’s ignoring you- would have thought you were used to that by now, but whatever. Anyway as you were, will leave you to do your usual schtick

 

[David O'Day]

Government spending stimulates the economy. The multipliers show this.

Why are you talking about how much money people have? That's the issue you plum and why the government needs to enact stimulus packages. These can be anything from increasing capital spending to universal income via a new version of QE.

You really have no fuck8ng clue. Remember when you said devaluing sterling would be good for the uk economy

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[David O'Day]

No pretending

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[covmark]

No grenners.

Back on ignore you go

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Back to your echo chamber. Seems anyone who disagrees with you goes onto ignore?

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[David O'Day]

lol, so you’re salty that he’s ignoring you- would have thought you were used to that by now, but whatever. Anyway as you were, will leave you to do your usual schtick

He's a bitter unintelligent Walter Mitty type.



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[Grendel]

lol, so you’re salty that he’s ignoring you- would have thought you were used to that by now, but whatever. Anyway as you were, will leave you to do your usual schtick

Im not salty as he isn’t it’s funny. What’s you view on this theory he espouses?