Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (8 Viewers)

[Grendel]

What do you do for a living David?

 

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[skybluetony176]

As is the ability to devalue currency. I honestly think we should have a petition to get David as chancellor with Tony as his civil servant. Are you better qualified than the chancellor and yes I’m sure Mr trump would believe you which is why I mentioned him.

So what would you do?

 

[Sick Boy]

Good news on the total cases today wasn’t it Mate, wasn’t it the lowest it’s been in a month?

Yes mate it was much better so fingers crossed things are starting to improve a bit more quickly now but have to be prepared for more increases again in the coming days though I think

 

[Ring Of Steel]

No I’m really not again this is economic theory against reality - the depression and the subsequent building works were in a long ago time l - I know of several manufacturing businesses that are going under. I know of one business that’s employed people for over 30 years and had never laid people off in any economic downturn. Now it has had to and money is not coming in from creditors and fine costs have to be paid. It’s abnormally cash rich but will close in ten weeks time if this isn’t resolved due to associate product lags

we now line in a global much more service aligned economy and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Perhaps you should write to the leaders and say this is basic economics lads and here’s a Great Plan. If it’s that simple I’d guess they’ve thought of it

You are the guy whose always been pretty kind of flippant about the debt haven’t you? I think? Your in my view in for a shock as this if it carries on will be with generations for a very king time

I am fascinated though if it’s basic textbook economics whose going to do what and how these dead business and all their supplies will just wake up Bobby Ewing style and it’s all a dream

This company you know- why would they have been expecting money to come in from their creditors?

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

No I’m really not again this is economic theory against reality - the depression and the subsequent building works were in a long ago time l - I know of several manufacturing businesses that are going under. I know of one business that’s employed people for over 30 years and had never laid people off in any economic downturn. Now it has had to and money is not coming in from creditors and fine costs have to be paid. It’s abnormally cash rich but will close in ten weeks time if this isn’t resolved due to associate product lags

we now line in a global much more service aligned economy and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Perhaps you should write to the leaders and say this is basic economics lads and here’s a Great Plan. If it’s that simple I’d guess they’ve thought of it

You are the guy whose always been pretty kind of flippant about the debt haven’t you? I think? Your in my view in for a shock as this if it carries on will be with generations for a very king time

I am fascinated though if it’s basic textbook economics whose going to do what and how these dead business and all their supplies will just wake up Bobby Ewing style and it’s all a dream

Well, perhaps a start would be to retain more cash in the businesses rather than massive dividend payouts to the very rich shareholders that do fuck all except own a piece of paper. Thus reducing the need for the higher debt and reducing pressure from interest payments?

 

[Grendel]

This company you know- why would they have been expecting money to come in from their creditors?

Oddly because they are not getting any money from theirs snd are likely to default as it’s a cycle of non production so terms have to be extended and of course schedules of production become revised

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Oddly because they are not getting any money from theirs snd are likely to default as it’s a cycle of non production so terms have to be extended and of course schedules of production become revised

You are aware of what a ‘creditor’ is, right? You might want to check your basic definitions.

 

[Grendel]

Well, perhaps a start would be to retain more cash in the businesses rather than massive dividend payouts to the very rich shareholders that do fuck all except own a piece of paper. Thus reducing the need for the higher debt and reducing pressure from interest payments?

The business I am referring to has huge cash reserves compared to most of its size - it pays no dividends as it’s a private limited Company - again reality over theory

 

[Ring Of Steel]

The business I am referring to has huge cash reserves compared to most of its size - it pays no dividends as it’s a private limited Company - again reality over theory

What does huge cash reserves mean- that needs context- huge as in a lot of money compared to what most people have in the bank, or enough to cover costs for, say, 3 months?

 

[Grendel]

You are aware of what a ‘creditor’ is, right? You might want to check your basic definitions.

Whatever I’m mean credit in the balance sheet I forgot you are an accountant.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

The business I am referring to has huge cash reserves compared to most of its size - it pays no dividends as it’s a private limited Company - again reality over theory

Private limited companies still can (and often do) pay dividends to it's shareholders. Plus if that one has large cash reserves compared to others doesn't it just highlight the problem.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Whatever I’m mean credit in the balance sheet I forgot you are an accountant.

No no I’m not trying to pick fault, you mean debtors- this is obviously a topic of interest for me. I’m the ‘bean counter’ for a company that manufactures modular housing units for construction at sites in London, I’m kind of living these very issues. I’m no economist so I don’t have the answers but I do know the problems- I would suggest that this is going to have an impact for 5 years minimum. In my own circumstances it’s the supply chain- the subcontractors, the suppliers, they’re getting wiped out and there’s nobody to replace them and it’s like a domino effect.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Private limited companies still can (and often do) pay dividends to it's shareholders. Plus if that one has large cash reserves compared to others doesn't it just highlight the problem.

spot on, they’re just called something else. I’m lucky, the cash is being used to support costs and keep the place open, but there’s a window of a few months and then... who knows. Genuinely scary times and all you can do is take one day at a time and drink like a fish

 

[David O'Day]

He's thick as mince.

Bet he went to Woodlands

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

 

[skybluetony176]

and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Just checked and apparently in the Great Depression the UK’s national dept was running at 180%.

 

[skybluetony176]

Oddly because they are not getting any money from theirs snd are likely to default as it’s a cycle of non production so terms have to be extended and of course schedules of production become revised

Do you mean debtors?

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Do you mean debtors?

he does indeed

 

[Grendel]

Private limited companies still can (and often do) pay dividends to it's shareholders. Plus if that one has large cash reserves compared to others doesn't it just highlight the problem.

Do you own a business? It has two shareholders and pays no dividends. Again I try and explain a point from a position of some knowledge and someone makes a counter claim with what knowledge exactly?

 

[shmmeee]

By the looks of it he says the metric used for pop density is number of major dense urban areas. I find this flawed. What if you have a large percentage of your population living quite rurally with one or two absolutely heaving metroplii? Of course there will be no correlation.

For that it needs to be looked at at a smaller scale, such as comparing different major cities to each other and against rural areas.Look at the UK graph. London top. WM second, NW third. Bottom is Devon and Cornwall. Who'd have thunk it.

If pop density has no effect why is social distancing such an important factor? If people live in high rises with shared entrances (which is going to massively affect pop density) it greatly increases the chance of infection.

I mean viruses don’t travel through walls so not sure the relevance to social distancing. You can be 1m from someone if there’s a brick wall between you.

Agree about the metric used though, would be better comparing sub national regions. He gives some explanation here:



In a nutshell: pure pop density is misleading, this isn’t perfect but best measure we have.

 

[Grendel]

No no I’m not trying to pick fault, you mean debtors- this is obviously a topic of interest for me. I’m the ‘bean counter’ for a company that manufactures modular housing units for construction at sites in London, I’m kind of living these very issues. I’m no economist so I don’t have the answers but I do know the problems- I would suggest that this is going to have an impact for 5 years minimum. In my own circumstances it’s the supply chain- the subcontractors, the suppliers, they’re getting wiped out and there’s nobody to replace them and it’s like a domino effect.

I do find it strange as you’ve said you are an accountant why you had such a problematic time regarding the level of debt in the football club by the owners of the club was the £20 million I quoted when the accountant that broke it down into bite size chunks on here always said it was exactly that and you then started quoting Kevin Maguire. Was that a wind up?

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Do you own a business? It has two shareholders and pays no dividends. Again I try and explain a point from a position of some knowledge and someone makes a counter claim with what knowledge exactly?

he used the wrong terminology same as you did, and there are rules but ‘dividends’ still happen whether they’re directors drawings or something similar. Obviously I don’t know the specifics of the company you’re talking about but I wouldn’t write off what he says, he’s right albeit not technically via “dividends”.

 

[skybluetony176]

he does indeed

Thought so.

 

[Grendel]

he used the wrong terminology same as you did, and there are rules but ‘dividends’ still happens whether they’re directors drawings or something similar. Obviously I don’t know the specifics of the company you’re talking about but I wouldn’t write off what he says, he’s right albeit not technically via “dividends”.

Dividends tend to be directors salaries in this instance as the tax rate is apparently lower at certain tax bands but clearly they are not normal dividends

 

[Ring Of Steel]

I do find it strange as you’ve said you are an accountant why you had such a problematic time regarding the level of debt in the football club by the owners of the club was the £20 million I quoted when the accountant that broke it down into bite size chunks on here always said it was exactly that and you then started quoting Kevin Maguire. Was that a wind up?

With all due respect- and I mean that- I barely even remember all that stuff. One for another day for sure though as I do remember a load of info coming up that I wasn’t aware of

 

[skybluetony176]

Dividends tend to be directors salaries in this instance as the tax rate is apparently lower at certain tax bands but clearly they are not normal dividends

Isn’t it NI contribution rather than tax?

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Dividends tend to be directors salaries in this instance as the tax rate is apparently lower at certain tax bands but clearly they are not normal dividends

If they’re just taking a salary alone and no dividends/ drawings etc then all the cash is genuinely for propping up the business, and you’ve got to assume they’ve crunched the numbers to know how long they can last. The problem is trying to factor in whether the people that owe you money will go under, if they do then your projections are blown away. Massive uncertainty everywhere, a giant house of cards. Then you’ve got the one man bands with their own companies who might employ 10 guys, the self employed support means they’re absolutely screwed- and their closure means their customers have no supplier, manufacturing schedules blown apart, there’s a risk of people getting done for wrongful trading etc etc, I’m waffling and I have no answers, but this is going to be the biggest mess in my lifetime for sure.

 

[Grendel]

If they’re just taking a salary alone and no dividends/ drawings etc then all the cash is genuinely for propping up the business, and you’ve got to assume they’ve crunched the numbers to know how long they can last. The problem is trying to factor in whether the people that owe you money will go under, if they do then your projections are blown away. Massive uncertainty everywhere, a giant house of cards. Then you’ve got the one man bands with their own companies who might employ 10 guys, the self employed support means they’re absolutely screwed- and their closure means their customers have no supplier, manufacturing schedules blown apart, there’s a risk of people getting done for wrongful trading etc etc, I’m waffling and I have no answers, but this is going to be the biggest mess in my lifetime for sure.

Exactly thanks for a sensible post

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Exactly thanks for a sensible post

why do I get the sense I’ve unwittingly taken sides in an argument

The forecasts are out there right now, even on the BBC- it’s going to be tough going. And I don’t know who said it but I do agree- when you have people taking £60m dividends the day before asking for a multi-billion bailout (EasyJet) then something is badly wrong, but I don’t know unfortunately of any government outside of China who would have the balls and the ability to get involved and clamp down on that. Like I said- I’m no economist but that can’t be right just like it can’t be right that when this recession is in full swing, the same old names will pay their 2% effective tax rate while there are millions on the dole- what do you do though, how do you fix it? If only there was the appetite for a proper shake-up geared towards- for want of a better word- ‘fairness’, and that’s not declaring any political affiliation either.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

why do I get the sense I’ve unwittingly taken sides in an argument

The forecasts are out there right now, even on the BBC- it’s going to be tough going. And I don’t know who said it but I do agree- when you have people taking £60m dividends the day before asking for a multi-billion bailout (EasyJet) then something is badly wrong, but I don’t know unfortunately of any government outside of China who would have the balls and the ability to get involved and clamp down on that. Like I said- I’m no economist but that can’t be right just like it can’t be right that when this recession is in full swing, the same old names will pay their 2% effective tax rate while there are millions on the dole- what do you do though, how do you fix it? If only there was the appetite for a proper shake-up geared towards- for want of a better word- ‘fairness’, and that’s not declaring any political affiliation either.

for the politically minded- looks like there is a new government in Ireland- Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition. I wish I could explain what that means exactly but it’s causing quite the stir over here.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Do you own a business? It has two shareholders and pays no dividends. Again I try and explain a point from a position of some knowledge and someone makes a counter claim with what knowledge exactly?

I did this for a living for over a decade. We turned a huge amount of sole traders/partnerships into ltd's due to the tax advantages at the time (since closed).

As the owners(shareholders) were usually also the directors (as I assume is the case here) they'd often pay themselves a 'bonus' at the end of the year in the form of a dividend (as they're usually higher rate tax payers so no NI as would be if they put a bonus in their wages). This would be placed into their director's loan account in the accounts which they could then draw from if they wished.

You stated an I quote:

The business I am referring to has huge cash reserves compared to most of its size - it pays no dividends as it’s a private limited Company - again reality over theory

thus suggesting that ltd's aren't able to pay dividends due to their set-up, which is not true. Maybe in this case they didn't take dividends, but that would be through choice, not because they can't.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I mean viruses don’t travel through walls so not sure the relevance to social distancing. You can be 1m from someone if there’s a brick wall between you.

Agree about the metric used though, would be better comparing sub national regions. He gives some explanation here:



In a nutshell: pure pop density is misleading, this isn’t perfect but best measure we have.

I agree about the difference about what's between you BUT high density areas tend to involve high-rises. These have shared spaces to enter/exit the building used by many people. So even if your not in the hallway/staircase at the same time if someone has breathed/coughed/sneezed and the pathogen is still airbourne or has landed on a surface others inadvertently touch it will spread even though you've social distanced.

I live alone so I don't need to worry about others bringing the pathogen in with them and catching it off them or vice versa. Family of three next door if one goes out they could run the risk of infecting the others when they get home. Population density of the household.

 

[Sick Boy]

for the politically minded- looks like there is a new government in Ireland- Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition. I wish I could explain what that means exactly but it’s causing quite the stir over here.

That’s going to play into SF’s hands majorly in the future, especially with all that’s going on.

 

[Sick Boy]

Trust me to open up a business on the side during a global pandemic ffs!!

 

[Grendel]

I did this for a living for over a decade. We turned a huge amount of sole traders/partnerships into ltd's due to the tax advantages at the time (since closed).

As the owners(shareholders) were usually also the directors (as I assume is the case here) they'd often pay themselves a 'bonus' at the end of the year in the form of a dividend (as they're usually higher rate tax payers so no NI as would be if they put a bonus in their wages). This would be placed into their director's loan account in the accounts which they could then draw from if they wished.

You stated an I quote:


thus suggesting that ltd's aren't able to pay dividends due to their set-up, which is not true. Maybe in this case they didn't take dividends, but that would be through choice, not because they can't.

Dividends for business owners are a form of salary you have a very distorted view that most SME owners are just trying to extract income and have no regard for the long term - to suggest arrogantly businesses can somehow survive with no income for 6 months while still paying salaries and bills and it’s their lack of prudence that’s to blame is mind blowing. I’d love to see you explain that to such people

 

[Ring Of Steel]

That’s going to play into SF’s hands majorly in the future, especially with all that’s going on.

yes I can confirm that they’re all over the place on tv giving their views. Apparently the leader had COVID19 quite badly for a while.