Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (349 Viewers)

[SkyBlueDom26]

I would think the UK is more likely to be 5/6 weeks away but with some sort of return to work within that time for certain types of jobs.

Good news on the total cases today wasn’t it Mate, wasn’t it the lowest it’s been in a month?

 

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[David O'Day]

Major infrastructure projects last years, sometimes decades. Look at Crossrail, Thames Tideway Scheme, HS2. Some long term socialist investment on a national scale is what’s needed.

What he doesn't get is the money created in wages then is spent inthe wider economy boosting that as well meaning that expands as well creating more jobs.

This is economics 101

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[Grendel]

Sorry but most of this is just word salad. And you’re still on about consumer debt when I’ve just said government spending to avoid consumer debt.

The Great Depression was a classic example of how to get out of a depression using stimulus spending, that’s what Roosevelt’s New Deal was! And no recovery took around 5 years, starting with the New Deal stimulus spending.

You’re trying to use the greatest example of the efficacy of Keynesian economics to disprove Keynesian economics!

No I’m really not again this is economic theory against reality - the depression and the subsequent building works were in a long ago time l - I know of several manufacturing businesses that are going under. I know of one business that’s employed people for over 30 years and had never laid people off in any economic downturn. Now it has had to and money is not coming in from creditors and fine costs have to be paid. It’s abnormally cash rich but will close in ten weeks time if this isn’t resolved due to associate product lags

we now line in a global much more service aligned economy and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Perhaps you should write to the leaders and say this is basic economics lads and here’s a Great Plan. If it’s that simple I’d guess they’ve thought of it

You are the guy whose always been pretty kind of flippant about the debt haven’t you? I think? Your in my view in for a shock as this if it carries on will be with generations for a very king time

I am fascinated though if it’s basic textbook economics whose going to do what and how these dead business and all their supplies will just wake up Bobby Ewing style and it’s all a dream

 

[skybluetony176]

No I’m really not again this is economic theory against reality - the depression and the subsequent building works were in a long ago time l - I know of several manufacturing businesses that are going under. I know of one business that’s employed people for over 30 years and had never laid people off in any economic downturn. Now it has had to and money is not coming in from creditors and fine costs have to be paid. It’s abnormally cash rich but will close in ten weeks time if this isn’t resolved due to associate product lags

we now line in a global much more service aligned economy and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Perhaps you should write to the leaders and say this is basic economics lads and here’s a Great Plan. If it’s that simple I’d guess they’ve thought of it

You are the guy whose always been pretty kind of flippant about the debt haven’t you? I think? Your in my view in for a shock as this if it carries on will be with generations for a very king time

I am fascinated though if it’s basic textbook economics whose going to do what and how these dead business and all their supplies will just wake up Bobby Ewing style and it’s all a dream

You do understand that the Great Depression was a worldwide depression? It’s effects on manufacturing was devastating.

 

[Grendel]

@shmmeee I’m not even being funny I’m genuinely interested why you think this is not the biggest crises in a century. I know many business owners and they think prior recessions are an utter blast compared to this

 

[David O'Day]

You do understand that the Great Depression was a worldwide depression? It’s effects on manufacturing was devastating.

He genuinely does not understand

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[Grendel]

He genuinely does not understand

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David and Tony the world has moved on from 1930’s economics and oddly the world now isn’t just manufacturing and even the most optimistic view then was a recovery within 5 years.

I do hope though that the likes of Johnson, Merkle, Macron etc are looking at this forum as they will be far more boosted by this and I’m sure will be ignoring those pesky economists and forecasters as we have Dave and Tone to solve everything with their stimulus plan. Trump may even mention you as “guys who know what they are taking about” in his next press conference

 

[David O'Day]

It's still mainstream economics you fucking clown. It's still used today.

So you know fuck all about economics, we get that.



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[skybluetony176]

David and Tony the world has moved on from 1930’s economics and oddly the world now isn’t just manufacturing and even the most optimistic view then was a recovery within 5 years.

I do hope though that the likes of Johnson, Merkle, Macron etc are looking at this forum as they will be far more boosted by this and I’m sure will be ignoring those pesky economists and forecasters as we have Dave and Tone to solve everything with their stimulus plan. Trump may even mention you as “guys who know what they are taking about” in his next press conference

Who said it was just manufacturing. You are aware of the Great Depression? You are aware of Roosevelts New Deal? Are you aware of how multifaceted it was? It included everything from banking to infrastructure to an end of prohibition.

 

[David O'Day]

Who said it was just manufacturing. You are aware of the Great Depression? You are aware of Roosevelts New Deal? Are you aware of how multifaceted it was? It included everything from banking to infrastructure to an end of prohibition.

Mate he is an idiot.

I've seen u-bends sharper than him.

Just point and laugh at him.

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[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Strong correlation between time of lockdown and death count, same thread shows little relationship between population or population density (the more recent excuse from the right I’ve seen).

By the looks of it he says the metric used for pop density is number of major dense urban areas. I find this flawed. What if you have a large percentage of your population living quite rurally with one or two absolutely heaving metroplii? Of course there will be no correlation.

For that it needs to be looked at at a smaller scale, such as comparing different major cities to each other and against rural areas.Look at the UK graph. London top. WM second, NW third. Bottom is Devon and Cornwall. Who'd have thunk it.

If pop density has no effect why is social distancing such an important factor? If people live in high rises with shared entrances (which is going to massively affect pop density) it greatly increases the chance of infection.

 

[David O'Day]

Who said it was just manufacturing. You are aware of the Great Depression? You are aware of Roosevelts New Deal? Are you aware of how multifaceted it was? It included everything from banking to infrastructure to an end of prohibition.

Strangely he mentions trump but they have already had 1 round of a universal income as I mentioned earlier. Once again he doesn't even know what he is talking about.

Come on grenners ask us again how me would implement the paradox of thrift. That was pure comedy gold.

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[David O'Day]

By the looks of it he says the metric used for pop density is number of major dense urban areas. I find this flawed. What if you have a large percentage of your population living quite rurally with one or two absolutely heaving metroplii? Of course there will be no correlation.

For that it needs to be looked at at a smaller scale, such as comparing different major cities to each other and against rural areas.Look at the UK graph. London top. WM second, NW third. Bottom is Devon and Cornwall. Who'd have thunk it.

If pop density has no effect why is social distancing such an important factor? If people live in high rises with shared entrances (which is going to massively affect pop density) it greatly increases the chance of infection.

His whole graphs are flawed and seem to me to be created to prove a conclusion

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[skybluetony176]

Mate he is an idiot.

I've seen u-bends sharper than him.

Just point and laugh at him.

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I’m not actually sure what he thinks we should do other than a major stimulus package. That might be interesting if he can tell us what he thinks should happen because at the moment it seems to be sit around in the dark.

 

[Grendel]

It's still mainstream economics you fucking clown. It's still used today.

So you know fuck all about economics, we get that.



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As is the ability to devalue currency. I honestly think we should have a petition to get David as chancellor with Tony as his civil servant. Are you better qualified than the chancellor and yes I’m sure Mr trump would believe you which is why I mentioned him.

 

[Grendel]

What do you do for a living David?

 

[skybluetony176]

As is the ability to devalue currency. I honestly think we should have a petition to get David as chancellor with Tony as his civil servant. Are you better qualified than the chancellor and yes I’m sure Mr trump would believe you which is why I mentioned him.

So what would you do?

 

[Sick Boy]

Good news on the total cases today wasn’t it Mate, wasn’t it the lowest it’s been in a month?

Yes mate it was much better so fingers crossed things are starting to improve a bit more quickly now but have to be prepared for more increases again in the coming days though I think

 

[Ring Of Steel]

No I’m really not again this is economic theory against reality - the depression and the subsequent building works were in a long ago time l - I know of several manufacturing businesses that are going under. I know of one business that’s employed people for over 30 years and had never laid people off in any economic downturn. Now it has had to and money is not coming in from creditors and fine costs have to be paid. It’s abnormally cash rich but will close in ten weeks time if this isn’t resolved due to associate product lags

we now line in a global much more service aligned economy and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Perhaps you should write to the leaders and say this is basic economics lads and here’s a Great Plan. If it’s that simple I’d guess they’ve thought of it

You are the guy whose always been pretty kind of flippant about the debt haven’t you? I think? Your in my view in for a shock as this if it carries on will be with generations for a very king time

I am fascinated though if it’s basic textbook economics whose going to do what and how these dead business and all their supplies will just wake up Bobby Ewing style and it’s all a dream

This company you know- why would they have been expecting money to come in from their creditors?

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

No I’m really not again this is economic theory against reality - the depression and the subsequent building works were in a long ago time l - I know of several manufacturing businesses that are going under. I know of one business that’s employed people for over 30 years and had never laid people off in any economic downturn. Now it has had to and money is not coming in from creditors and fine costs have to be paid. It’s abnormally cash rich but will close in ten weeks time if this isn’t resolved due to associate product lags

we now line in a global much more service aligned economy and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Perhaps you should write to the leaders and say this is basic economics lads and here’s a Great Plan. If it’s that simple I’d guess they’ve thought of it

You are the guy whose always been pretty kind of flippant about the debt haven’t you? I think? Your in my view in for a shock as this if it carries on will be with generations for a very king time

I am fascinated though if it’s basic textbook economics whose going to do what and how these dead business and all their supplies will just wake up Bobby Ewing style and it’s all a dream

Well, perhaps a start would be to retain more cash in the businesses rather than massive dividend payouts to the very rich shareholders that do fuck all except own a piece of paper. Thus reducing the need for the higher debt and reducing pressure from interest payments?

 

[Grendel]

This company you know- why would they have been expecting money to come in from their creditors?

Oddly because they are not getting any money from theirs snd are likely to default as it’s a cycle of non production so terms have to be extended and of course schedules of production become revised

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Oddly because they are not getting any money from theirs snd are likely to default as it’s a cycle of non production so terms have to be extended and of course schedules of production become revised

You are aware of what a ‘creditor’ is, right? You might want to check your basic definitions.

 

[Grendel]

Well, perhaps a start would be to retain more cash in the businesses rather than massive dividend payouts to the very rich shareholders that do fuck all except own a piece of paper. Thus reducing the need for the higher debt and reducing pressure from interest payments?

The business I am referring to has huge cash reserves compared to most of its size - it pays no dividends as it’s a private limited Company - again reality over theory

 

[Ring Of Steel]

The business I am referring to has huge cash reserves compared to most of its size - it pays no dividends as it’s a private limited Company - again reality over theory

What does huge cash reserves mean- that needs context- huge as in a lot of money compared to what most people have in the bank, or enough to cover costs for, say, 3 months?

 

[Grendel]

You are aware of what a ‘creditor’ is, right? You might want to check your basic definitions.

Whatever I’m mean credit in the balance sheet I forgot you are an accountant.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

The business I am referring to has huge cash reserves compared to most of its size - it pays no dividends as it’s a private limited Company - again reality over theory

Private limited companies still can (and often do) pay dividends to it's shareholders. Plus if that one has large cash reserves compared to others doesn't it just highlight the problem.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Whatever I’m mean credit in the balance sheet I forgot you are an accountant.

No no I’m not trying to pick fault, you mean debtors- this is obviously a topic of interest for me. I’m the ‘bean counter’ for a company that manufactures modular housing units for construction at sites in London, I’m kind of living these very issues. I’m no economist so I don’t have the answers but I do know the problems- I would suggest that this is going to have an impact for 5 years minimum. In my own circumstances it’s the supply chain- the subcontractors, the suppliers, they’re getting wiped out and there’s nobody to replace them and it’s like a domino effect.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Private limited companies still can (and often do) pay dividends to it's shareholders. Plus if that one has large cash reserves compared to others doesn't it just highlight the problem.

spot on, they’re just called something else. I’m lucky, the cash is being used to support costs and keep the place open, but there’s a window of a few months and then... who knows. Genuinely scary times and all you can do is take one day at a time and drink like a fish

 

[David O'Day]

He's thick as mince.

Bet he went to Woodlands

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[skybluetony176]

and have debt mountains that you could never have imagined at that time - many European countries now have debt of 140% of its GDP

Just checked and apparently in the Great Depression the UK’s national dept was running at 180%.

 

[skybluetony176]

Oddly because they are not getting any money from theirs snd are likely to default as it’s a cycle of non production so terms have to be extended and of course schedules of production become revised

Do you mean debtors?

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Do you mean debtors?

he does indeed

 

[Grendel]

Private limited companies still can (and often do) pay dividends to it's shareholders. Plus if that one has large cash reserves compared to others doesn't it just highlight the problem.

Do you own a business? It has two shareholders and pays no dividends. Again I try and explain a point from a position of some knowledge and someone makes a counter claim with what knowledge exactly?

 

[shmmeee]

By the looks of it he says the metric used for pop density is number of major dense urban areas. I find this flawed. What if you have a large percentage of your population living quite rurally with one or two absolutely heaving metroplii? Of course there will be no correlation.

For that it needs to be looked at at a smaller scale, such as comparing different major cities to each other and against rural areas.Look at the UK graph. London top. WM second, NW third. Bottom is Devon and Cornwall. Who'd have thunk it.

If pop density has no effect why is social distancing such an important factor? If people live in high rises with shared entrances (which is going to massively affect pop density) it greatly increases the chance of infection.

I mean viruses don’t travel through walls so not sure the relevance to social distancing. You can be 1m from someone if there’s a brick wall between you.

Agree about the metric used though, would be better comparing sub national regions. He gives some explanation here:



In a nutshell: pure pop density is misleading, this isn’t perfect but best measure we have.

 

[Grendel]

No no I’m not trying to pick fault, you mean debtors- this is obviously a topic of interest for me. I’m the ‘bean counter’ for a company that manufactures modular housing units for construction at sites in London, I’m kind of living these very issues. I’m no economist so I don’t have the answers but I do know the problems- I would suggest that this is going to have an impact for 5 years minimum. In my own circumstances it’s the supply chain- the subcontractors, the suppliers, they’re getting wiped out and there’s nobody to replace them and it’s like a domino effect.

I do find it strange as you’ve said you are an accountant why you had such a problematic time regarding the level of debt in the football club by the owners of the club was the £20 million I quoted when the accountant that broke it down into bite size chunks on here always said it was exactly that and you then started quoting Kevin Maguire. Was that a wind up?