Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (7 Viewers)

[fernandopartridge]

What is the point? EU scheme to provide medical supplies hasn't made SINGLE delivery

I suppose the problem with it is that essentially the manufacturing capacity is the same, no matter how many different buyers or configurations of buyers there are. The EU collaboration should perhaps be more attractive to manufacturers due to the scale of the orders in normal circumstances, but I'd imagine they are pretty maxed out as it is.

 

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[djr8369]

Some of the praise of Sweden is a bit misleading. They are still experiencing growth in cases and growth in deaths. The nature of their demographics, high proportion of people live alone, pop density etc seems to have just meant they had to implement fewer measures compared to some other countries. They have one of the worst death rates per million people, in the top ten worse affected countries, far higher than the neighbouring countries, bar the Netherlands who also had a softer approach. I should think at some point they will have to implement tougher measures to bend the curve and not overwhelm their healthcare system (in fairness I think they acknowledge it's early days and this may happen, from what I have read). Of course, they have the advantage of having further measures in their arsenal.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Some of the praise of Sweden is a bit misleading. They are still experiencing growth in cases and growth in deaths. The nature of their demographics, high proportion of people live alone, pop density etc seems to have just meant they had to implement fewer measures compared to some other countries. They have one of the worst death rates per million people, in the top ten worse affected countries, far higher than the neighbouring countries, bar the Netherlands who also had a softer approach. I should think at some point they will have to implement tougher measures to bend the curve and not overwhelm their healthcare system (in fairness I think they acknowledge it's early days and this may happen, from what I have read). Of course, they have the advantage of having further measures in their arsenal.

Who is praising Sweden? Is it the herd immunity pushers? They present a superficial of everything

 

[djr8369]

Who is praising Sweden? Is it the herd immunity pushers? They present a superficial of everything

The libertarian "we need to open the economy as soon as possible, you don't understand that lockdown could do as much damage as the disease" types mainly. As if nobody is noticing they are not at work or the constant barrage of forecast on the economic damage.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Who is praising Sweden? Is it the herd immunity pushers? They present a superficial of everything

I think Sweden is taking a huge risk but it’s up to each country to try to manage the disease as best they can. If they can allow it to spread without breaching their health service capacity then who’s to say that ultimately that might not be the best decision in the long run.

The problem I can see with their strategy is the lag between restriction measures being implemented and the confirmed cases coming through (people showing symptoms and then needing hospital treatment) and whether it spreads to higher risk individuals. This is made even more difficult due to the high number of asymptomatic/mild cases ie You could start putting restrictions in place to control the spread but it could be too late as it’s spread more than you think and you’re going to breach your health service capacity anyway.

I honestly don’t think anyone will know the best solution/strategy for months or even longer. The only fact we know at the moment is we don’t have a vaccine and therefore this is around for a good while yet.

All countries can do in the meantime is try to buy some time in order for us to find out how to best to manage/treat the virus (or find a vaccine), whilst remaining within their health care capacity, without damaging the economy to the point whereby more damage is done to society than would be done by the virus itself.

Not easy

ps also, if it’s discovered that you can catch it again, there’s another layer to the mess which changes the dynamics again

 

[CCFCSteve]

Some of the praise of Sweden is a bit misleading. They are still experiencing growth in cases and growth in deaths. The nature of their demographics, high proportion of people live alone, pop density etc seems to have just meant they had to implement fewer measures compared to some other countries. They have one of the worst death rates per million people, in the top ten worse affected countries, far higher than the neighbouring countries, bar the Netherlands who also had a softer approach. I should think at some point they will have to implement tougher measures to bend the curve and not overwhelm their healthcare system (in fairness I think they acknowledge it's early days and this may happen, from what I have read). Of course, they have the advantage of having further measures in their arsenal.

As I say above I’m not supporting their strategy but the death rates are a strange one until you know how many in the population has it/has had it. Even the best testing (major) nations haven’t really got a clue, only estimates from some relatively low number antibody sampling

If for example after testing we find out that half the population in Sweden has had it at the current number of deaths then it would put a totally different slant on the argument

I’m not saying that’s the case at all but you get the point.

 

[Astute]

It’s on about nicotine not all the damage done to your lungs which makes you vastly more vulnerable to serious problems.

The guess is it is nicotine. But as usual many seem to know more than the specialists know.

About 50% of smokers die from a smoking related cause. Fact.

In France over 25% of the population still smoke. Fact.

In France only about 5% of those with the virus are smokers. Seemingly a Fact.

The big question is how come smokers who have respiratory problems have an 80% lower chance of getting a respiratory based virus. This could be the start of a breakthrough.

So what do the experts on here say?

 

[CCFCSteve]

The guess is it is nicotine. But as usual many seem to know more than the specialists know.

About 50% of smokers die from a smoking related cause. Fact.

In France over 25% of the population still smoke. Fact.

In France only about 5% of those with the virus are smokers. Seemingly a Fact.

The big question is how come smokers who have respiratory problems have an 80% lower chance of getting a respiratory based virus. This could be the start of a breakthrough.

So what do the experts on here say?

It’s fascinating isn’t it. I think I read that smokers are less likely to get it but if they do are at a higher risk. Might be wrong though

 

[shmmeee]

The guess is it is nicotine. But as usual many seem to know more than the specialists know.

About 50% of smokers die from a smoking related cause. Fact.

In France over 25% of the population still smoke. Fact.

In France only about 5% of those with the virus are smokers. Seemingly a Fact.

The big question is how come smokers who have respiratory problems have an 80% lower chance of getting a respiratory based virus. This could be the start of a breakthrough.

So what do the experts on here say?

I say this is not the news I needed on my one week anniversary of quitting.

Devils advocate: could it be that at the age profile corona kicks in those with weak lungs have already been weeded out?

The real test would be vapers I reckon. Or those getting direct nicotine some other way.

 

[Astute]

As I say above I’m not supporting their strategy but the death rates are a strange one until you know how many in the population has it/has had it. Even the best testing (major) nations haven’t really got a clue, only estimates from some relatively low number antibody sampling

If for example after testing we find out that half the population in Sweden has had it at the current number of deaths then it would put a totally different slant on the argument

I’m not saying that’s the case at all but you get the point.

Those of us that are looking for clues on what will happen next will agree with you. Those of us that know more than the experts will think you are mad.

 

[wingy]

I say this is not the news I needed on my one week anniversary of quitting.

Devils advocate: could it be that at the age profile corona kicks in those with weak lungs have already been weeded out?

The real test would be vapers I reckon. Or those getting direct nicotine some other way.

That and shielding perhaps

 

[Astute]

It’s fascinating isn’t it. I think I read that smokers are less likely to get it but if they do are at a higher risk. Might be wrong though

That is why they are testing nicotine patches. But who knows.

Maybe smokers have already destroyed where the virus attacks so the virus has a problem taking a hold.

 

[robbiekeane]

Where are people going for the latest statistics updates for the UK?

find the BBC UK home page buries stuff so it’s hard to find. Would like to see updated charts and daily figures, etc.

Thanks!

 

[Astute]

I say this is not the news I needed on my one week anniversary of quitting.

Devils advocate: could it be that at the age profile corona kicks in those with weak lungs have already been weeded out?

The real test would be vapers I reckon. Or those getting direct nicotine some other way.

I'm about 2 years into packing the weed in. Now vaping faster than usual to protect myself

 

[Astute]

That and shielding perhaps

So smokers are 80% better of 'shielding' than non smokers?

 

[wingy]

I say this is not the news I needed on my one week anniversary of quitting.

Devils advocate: could it be that at the age profile corona kicks in those with weak lungs have already been weeded out?

The real test would be vapers I reckon. Or those getting direct nicotine some other way.

Just completed 21 days cold turkey .
Still reckon if I took a walk up to the local shop to buy some milk I'd cave.
Did 2 weeks off the ale as well

 

[Astute]

Where are people going for the latest statistics updates for the UK?

find the BBC UK home page buries stuff so it’s hard to find. Would like to see updated charts and daily figures, etc.

Thanks!

It is all lies if it doesn't say what some want it to say.

 

[Astute]

Just completed 21 days cold turkey .
Still reckon if I took a walk up to the local shop to buy some milk I'd cave.
Did 2 weeks off the ale as well

Well done. That is good going.

 

[shmmeee]

Just completed 21 days cold turkey .
Still reckon if I took a walk up to the local shop to buy some milk I'd cave.
Did 2 weeks off the ale as well

I did actually ask my mate for a blast on her fag when she came to see me yesterday, luckily she’s a good mate and completely ignored me

 

[wingy]

So smokers are 80% better of 'shielding' than non smokers?

IDK are poeple in that group more likely to Extreme shield than wider public.

 

[Astute]

IDK are poeple in that group more likely to Extreme shield than wider public.

Or less likely? Poor people more likely to smoke than rich. Poor people more likely to congregate than rich and have a BBQ....

 

[shmmeee]

Saw a theory once about smokers not liking close social contact and the smoking being a way of keeping others at a distance.

So maybe that’s it? We just smell and have natural social distancing?

 

[Astute]

Saw a theory once about smokers not liking close social contact and the smoking being a way of keeping others at a distance.

So maybe that’s it? We just smell and have natural social distancing?

And want to share a tab while social distancing.

How about sharing a spliff?

Smokers love socialising. I actually miss not standing around with smokers. But I now dislike the smell of smokers that I didn't really notice when I smoked.

 

[wingy]

Where are people going for the latest statistics updates for the UK?

find the BBC UK home page buries stuff so it’s hard to find. Would like to see updated charts and daily figures, etc.

Thanks!

I've been using Roylab stats on YT .
Many on here have been using Worldometer.

Edit :- TBF the data released by our govt/, health body is not much use as much of it is incomplete or out of date

 

[wingy]

And want to share a tab while social distancing.

How about sharing a spliff?

Smokers love socialising. I actually miss not standing around with smokers. But I now dislike the smell of smokers that I didn't really notice when I smoked.

Yeah the smell is obnoxious,the same as when you have a cold

 

[Nick]

I did actually ask my mate for a blast on her fag when she came to see me yesterday, luckily she’s a good mate and completely ignored me

So many funny replies that aren't PC so I will giggle to myself.

 

[fernandopartridge]

I think Sweden is taking a huge risk but it’s up to each country to try to manage the disease as best they can. If they can allow it to spread without breaching their health service capacity then who’s to say that ultimately that might not be the best decision in the long run.

The problem I can see with their strategy is the lag between restriction measures being implemented and the confirmed cases coming through (people showing symptoms and then needing hospital treatment) and whether it spreads to higher risk individuals. This is made even more difficult due to the high number of asymptomatic/mild cases ie You could start putting restrictions in place to control the spread but it could be too late as it’s spread more than you think and you’re going to breach your health service capacity anyway.

I honestly don’t think anyone will know the best solution/strategy for months or even longer. The only fact we know at the moment is we don’t have a vaccine and therefore this is around for a good while yet.

All countries can do in the meantime is try to buy some time in order for us to find out how to best to manage/treat the virus (or find a vaccine), whilst remaining within their health care capacity, without damaging the economy to the point whereby more damage is done to society than would be done by the virus itself.

Not easy

ps also, if it’s discovered that you can catch it again, there’s another layer to the mess which changes the dynamics again

Yeah, the minimal infections and deaths in numerous countries that locked down earlier clearly aren't a reliable measure yet against the 20k plus we've had here.

 

[chiefdave]

I think Sweden is taking a huge risk but it’s up to each country to try to manage the disease as best they can. If they can allow it to spread without breaching their health service capacity then who’s to say that ultimately that might not be the best decision in the long run.

Time will tell if Sweden have got it right or not. The stats seem to show they're following a similar pattern to us but it would need someone much better with numbers and data than me to say that with any confidence.

And while we're looking at stats here's one that confuses me. Deaths seems to have little connection to population which seems really counterintuitive.

 

[robbiekeane]

Time will tell if Sweden have got it right or not. The stats seem to show they're following a similar pattern to us but it would need someone much better with numbers and data than me to say that with any confidence.

And while we're looking at stats here's one that confuses me. Deaths seems to have little connection to population which seems really counterintuitive.

Omitted variable bias.

 

[shmmeee]

Time will tell if Sweden have got it right or not. The stats seem to show they're following a similar pattern to us but it would need someone much better with numbers and data than me to say that with any confidence.

And while we're looking at stats here's one that confuses me. Deaths seems to have little connection to population which seems really counterintuitive.

Per capita will only matter at the end once everyone’s had it. Until the virus has gone through the whole country an outbreak will spread roughly the same way so death counts will be roughly similar.

On a small scale imagine a country of say ten people Vs a country of say 100. Assuming all else is equal and infections double both countries will look the same until the ten person country tops out:

Day 1: 1 - 1
Day 2: 2 - 2
Day 3: 4 - 4
Day 4: 8 - 8
Day 5: 10 - 16
Day 6: 10 - 32
Day 7: 10 - 64
Day 8: 10 - 100

Now per capita:

D1: 0.1 - 0.01
D2: 0.2 - 0.02
D3: 0.4 - 0.04
D4: 0.8 - 0.08
D5; 1 - 0.16
D6: 1 - 0.32
D7: 1 - 0.64
D8: 1 - 1

So despite handling the outbreak the exact same way (R0 = 2) the smaller country looks a lot worse until the large one catches up.

Current estimates are only around 10% of the U.K. have had it for example, so unless a country is less than 10% of our size population size won’t matter right now.

Hope that makes as much sense written down as it does in my head

 

[The coventrian]

So true.

 

[shmmeee]

So true.

LOL at that middle square. Wasn’t going to share this, but as you brought it up the irony is too delicious not to:




Who Benefits from Health Misinformation?

 

[skybluetony176]

So true.

Didn’t see calling anyone a racist who wants to drown immigrants by shooting holes in their boats in any of them squares. See, even right wing nonsense is calling you out as a racist.

 

[shmmeee]

More “what about lefties” as well.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The guess is it is nicotine. But as usual many seem to know more than the specialists know.

About 50% of smokers die from a smoking related cause. Fact.

In France over 25% of the population still smoke. Fact.

In France only about 5% of those with the virus are smokers. Seemingly a Fact.

The big question is how come smokers who have respiratory problems have an 80% lower chance of getting a respiratory based virus. This could be the start of a breakthrough.

So what do the experts on here say?

I don’t know if you’re being facetious but infection rate and the severity of the infection are two different things. If I had to make an educated guess I would put it down to one or several of the hundreds of chemicals in tobacco smoke that is hostile to the virus. I could imagine this in particular in houses covered in ash over the years.

If you’re a regular smoker however and get infected then you’re in big big trouble. And I know I get pulled up for ‘I have a degree’ but here it’s directly relevant-I’m not just guessing