Yeah, the minimal infections and deaths in numerous countries that locked down earlier clearly aren't a reliable measure yet against the 20k plus we've had here.
Not really, or not yet anyway, unless the virus disappears or until a vaccine has found.
If a country has locked down sooner/better then their infections and deaths will of course be a lot less at the moment. However, assuming (and it’s still a big assumption) that (a large majority of) people can’t catch it twice, there will also be more people who can catch it in those countries in future waves in those countries I presume it may also spread quicker in those countries as there are more people to catch it.
Of course if a vaccine/better treatments are found quickly those that have currently been the best in tracing, tracking and suppressing the virus will ultimately have been the most successful in tackling it. At the very least they are certainly buying themselves more time to find better treatments, get better prepared etc (and find a potential vaccine) which has got to be a good thing. However, if on the other hand a vaccine solution isn’t found then eventually a majority of people will get it so it will be more how patients are treated and it’s essential that countries remain below their health service capacity (I’d imagine if the outbreak had hit in the autumn and peaked over the winter most health services wouldn’t have coped - this is still my concern regarding the second wave, however, hopefully by then we will have better ability to control the spread, as well as better treatments and capacity)
ps Just to clarify, I’m saying this with little (fuck all !!!) scientific knowledge, just applying logic to what I’ve read/understood to date so won’t be offended if people shoot me down. There are so many variables at play it’s almost impossible to guess what will happen in the coming months (or longer)
