Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?
This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.
According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.
We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.
The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.
For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.
Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.
I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.
I’d say more 5-8 despite them being down to 9 men...I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.
Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.
No one knows how many waves there will be. They can guess but there is no science behind any off the guesses.Nice analogy, but youre suggesting this is full time when most scientists are saying this is very early stages ? We don’t know how many waves there could be of this (I’m hoping just one or two but realistically that’s unlikely) and how it will impact nations in future
Just caught some of Boris’ comeback. Many years ago a mate of mine who was a reasonably healthy 29 year old at the time got a nasty case of the flu and ended up in hospital for a week, most of which was on oxygen, he lost best part of 2 stone and it took him a good couple of months to get the weight back on and not look ill. Doesn’t Boris look well having been on the Covid 19 diet. Just saying. Gallows humour and all that.
Taxi for Boris.Robins is a stubborn bastard and should have made a change.
Politically, socially, mentality.I think comparing the measures and what’s worked and what’s not (whilst taking into account the cultures, population etc) is probably a far more useful comparison
Tonys right, NZ have done very well (got a mate and his family out there so chuffed) but very different country to us and many others in Europe (size, connectivity with other nearby nations etc etc)
Surely we should be putting people into those makeshift hospitals that are empty?
And having 2 disallowed goals.I’d say more 5-8 despite them being down to 9 men...
But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.
Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"
Apart from the london one they are step down hospitalsBut they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.
Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"
I think even before the compulsory quarantine they were expecting people to self isolate for 14 days once they arrived back, symptoms or no symptoms.New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.
According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.
That depends on if other countries reporting and stats are done the same as ours though?
For example Africa seem to be immune from it. Is their social distancing working?
Africa has much less international travel so less likely to import it from numerous sources (easier track and trace) and often people living in less dense areas as they have more agricultural based economies etc. There may well be other factors (I don't know if something like the climate will help) but when you look at here and the US they are saying that people from BAME backgrounds are being disproportionately affected, so it really doesn't look like it's a DNA thing.
Surely if they were a halfway house they are ideal for people quarantining after coming into the country?
It's more likely they haven't really been tested and people die all the time there so it doesn't get a mention.
With Johnson back to 'work', it's becoming pretty clear there is a big push to get the economic pawns back to work asap regardless of the risk of death or serious illness. The Torygraph pushing misleading polls stating people want lockdown to end unconditionally, lots of air time given to cranks like Toby Young. Now the mass morgues are in place Plan A can be pursued once again.
I'm not sure if it is just being ignored that we're adding on 4k plus cases per day (and that's just diagnosed ones). I genuinely think we'll go to 100k+ excess deaths from this.
Apparently not. My neighbour spent 12 years working in Munich hospitals and is touch with former colleagues. Generally the underlying condition is recorded as the cause of death there. (virus apparently seen as speeding up the process, not the cause).So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?
Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm!)
Apparently not. My neighbour spent 12 years working in Munich hospitals and is touch with former colleagues. Generally the underlying condition is recorded as the cause of death there. (virus apparently seen as speeding up the process, not the cause).
Also Germany not generally testing after death except in unusual circumstances - again it's data that will become available later when, for example, house deaths are compared with previous years data
She says similar happening here in Hungary where possible.
Only going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.
I see Raab says we're 'winning' still. It's up there with our great 2-6 'win' against Yeovil at home in league two, and me 'winning' the lottery every time I put it on
tbh that'll be good enough (with a margin built in, of course) as even non Covid deaths caused by this crisis are still fair for inclusion in the impact of this, in my eyesOnly going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.
Read the thread he posted ffsAgain, it's just a calculation and an estimate.
Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?
So much of it is about politics, you have Piers Morgan on one hand saying the world is doomed and everybody is going to die and pushing his shite and people like Dom on the other hand trying to give Boris Johnson a reacharound.
Which is why is Germany are underplaying it and we are overplaying it then the numbers will be different.
cynic in me thinks some will revisit it as increase above usual numbers of deaths per annum. eg" well those with serious underlying conditions were going to die some time in 2020 anyway". With some countries recording that way already some will try to justify things by "dumbing down the numbers" - name Cummings springs to mind for some reasontbh that'll be good enough (with a margin built in, of course) as even non Covid deaths caused by this crisis are still fair for inclusion in the impact of this, in my eyes
We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.
I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.
Thats where you do it like for like.
Are Germany including care homes or just people who die in hospital?
The headline figure is just so modelling though so nick does have a pointRead the thread he posted ffs
We are also recording deaths that may not be covid-19 as covid-19 deaths so it is hard to tell.We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.
I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.
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