Do you want to discuss boring politics? (44 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

Edit: I’ll also add, you’ve just won a 5 year term. This bit is meant to be about you, not what the opposition did. No one cares this far out.

The argument here is the Tories did this successfully and framed Labour as over spenders for the next two decades.

 

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[shmmeee]

Of course I know you're not a low/zero tax approach person. That's why I mentioned that the logical conclusion of your argument is exactly that, and I know you think that's a ridiculous proposition.

I do get the argument for it, but I think there are better ways to go about it. Having people earn a minimum wage they can actually live off for a start and then probably putting the tax free income at the value of rent, food + energy.

The right thing to do if they wanted to blow all their political capital up front as seems to be the case was to do a full tax review. More wealth and local taxes, reduce tax elsewhere, etc. Say the Tories left a mess so we’re going to fix it once and for all. Lots of people would have been unhappy, but lots of people are unhappy anyway.

 

[Skybluekyle]

I don't get having high levels of income tax allied to high levels of sales tax as that's just double taxation. One or the other can be fine.

Probably arguing for the sake of it here but one reason is people have a tendency to buy shit they don't need. We're also using up raw materials and energy at an ever increasing rate to produce a lot of shit. We moan about the levels of pollution and gases China makes. The reason it does that is because it's producing the shit we buy. So maybe we could do with having people being a bit more discerning about what they buy.

And as I said I'd consider adding bands in so high cost items incur a higher tax level than lower ones. That would make it a bit more progressive.

This I completely agree on. The UK is probably the greenest major economy, but it counts for none since we import a huge amount of products from countries with some of the worst economies for the environment.

 

[SBAndy]

The argument here is the Tories did this successfully and framed Labour as over spenders for the next two decades.

I get it, and in politics terms it was a brilliant set-piece. This clearly hasn’t cut through in the same way and they’ve made themselves look fools.

 

[MalcSB]

No you're hoping here!

Not hoping, predicting.

 

[MalcSB]

We haven't got a huge hole in the public finances, fucking hell.

As Trevor Philips showed, the alleged black hole is 2% of public expenditure which caught that intellectual midget Streeting on the hop. Of course you would show that there is no such thing in the first place ( I will read that paper, honest!).

 

[MalcSB]

The argument of “the Conservatives were playing fast and loose with the country’s finances” is only half the story. The ‘spend’ was on nothing of value. If, for example, there was a plethora of infrastructure projects underway then the deficit doesn’t really matter (at less than 2% of total government spending; I’m not advocating for endless expenditure before anyone tries that). Fact is, the tax cuts given haven’t boosted economic performance so they were dead duck policies.

As Steve said earlier in the thread, there was a massive opportunity to use their short-term to make meaningful and positive change. They’ve blown their goodwill already which is staggeringly incompetent.

Edit: I’ll also add, you’ve just won a 5 year term. This bit is meant to be about you, not what the opposition did. No one cares this far out.

They have got to make it about what the opposition did so they can set the bar really low for their own performance to be measured. I don’t see a second term for Labour.

 

[MalcSB]

I get it, and in politics terms it was a brilliant set-piece. This clearly hasn’t cut through in the same way and they’ve made themselves look fools.

They’ve made themselves look fools because all the published figures has shown that the economy was doing better than the rest of the G7 (according to the measures used) and people can see those figures. It may not have filtered through to the man in the street In terms of a feel good factor - but it doesn’t sound like that is going to happen any time soon anyway.

 

[Skybluekyle]

As Trevor Philips showed, the alleged black hole is 2% of public expenditure which caught that intellectual midget Streeting on the hop. Of course you would show that there is no such thing in the first place ( I will read that paper, honest!).

Good to see he's going into politics after robbing banks and patching things up with Michael!

 

[MalcSB]

Good to see he's going into politics after robbing banks and patching things up with Michael!

What a difference an l makes!

 

[shmmeee]

They’ve made themselves look fools because all the published figures has shown that the economy was doing better than the rest of the G7 (according to the measures used) and people can see those figures. It may not have filtered through to the man in the street In terms of a feel good factor - but it doesn’t sound like that is going to happen any time soon anyway.

You’re still taking one quarter as some evidence of a great economy. Small growth from a low base doesn’t mean shit when it’s been preceded by 16 years of stagnation. It’s just fundamentally unserious to point to a momentary uptick and claim all is good. Is hasn’t “filtered down” because it’s an imperceptible rise from absolute shite.

The challenge for Labour is doing better.

 

[MalcSB]

You’re still taking one quarter as some evidence of a great economy. Small growth from a low base doesn’t mean shit when it’s been preceded by 16 years of stagnation. It’s just fundamentally unserious to point to a momentary uptick and claim all is good. Is hasn’t “filtered down” because it’s an imperceptible rise from absolute shite.

The challenge for Labour is doing better.

Doesn't this show greater growth for the UK since the Covid low point? So not just one quarter.


The challenge for Labour is to do better. They are already breaking promises and shelving others.

 

[shmmeee]

Doesn't this show greater growth for the UK since the Covid low point? So not just one quarter.
View attachment 38357

The challenge for Labour is to do better. They are already breaking promises and shelving others.

We’re still below pre Covid levels! No growth for four years.

You realise this is the first time in history a UK government has failed to raise living standards during its term?

Honestly give this up you’re looking sillier by the day. We get it “grr Labour” but keep it realistic.

 

[Philosoraptor]

Not much into my economics but the US and Europe are using different strategies to boost their economies out of the Covid downturn.

The US could be in real trouble with their low exchange rates and debt if unemployment goes up, and the German economy is meant to be set for a real dodgy patch too.

Other emerging markets like China doesn't seem to be taking off at all.

 

[CCFCSteve]

You’re still taking one quarter as some evidence of a great economy. Small growth from a low base doesn’t mean shit when it’s been preceded by 16 years of stagnation. It’s just fundamentally unserious to point to a momentary uptick and claim all is good. Is hasn’t “filtered down” because it’s an imperceptible rise from absolute shite.

The challenge for Labour is doing better.

Don’t want to be pedantic (again ), but it’s two quarters and this current one is looking ok based on the PMI readings (not wholly accurate)

The problem the government will have is if/when it slows, which it undoubtedly will anyway, then the finger will be pointed at them for negative chat and any ‘non growth’ policy actions

ps MalcSB chart is out of date. Not pretty but we are above pre pandemic levels…think most major nations are now, apart from maybe Germany that is borderline. We’re on course for growing a bit more than most others this year which should close gap a little

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Don’t want to be pedantic (again ), but it’s two quarters and this current one is looking ok based on the PMI readings (not wholly accurate)

The problem the government will have is if/when it slows, which it undoubtedly will anyway, then the finger will be pointed at them for negative chat and any ‘non growth’ policy actions

ps MalcSB chart is out of date. Not pretty but we are above pre pandemic levels…think most major nations are now, apart from maybe Germany that is borderline. We’re on course for growing a bit more than most others this year which should close gap a littleView attachment 38359

Hasn’t the GDP increase mostly been down to high immigration?

 

[CCFCSteve]

Hasn’t the GDP increase mostly been down to high immigration?

It would’ve helped but our PMIs have been stronger recently inc manufacturing which indicates some proper growth. As I’ve mentioned people/businesses were buying into a new government coming in, some long overdue stability and hopefully some growth policies (like the planning stuff, infrastructure etc). Just hope it’s not wasted. But we should all just wait and see what’s in the budget really

Edit - gdp per capita hasn’t been pretty for a while, it’s probably been the wrong type of immigration in some respects recently added to higher economic inactivity numbers

 

[MalcSB]

Don’t want to be pedantic (again ), but it’s two quarters and this current one is looking ok based on the PMI readings (not wholly accurate)

The problem the government will have is if/when it slows, which it undoubtedly will anyway, then the finger will be pointed at them for negative chat and any ‘non growth’ policy actions

ps MalcSB chart is out of date. Not pretty but we are above pre pandemic levels…think most major nations are now, apart from maybe Germany that is borderline. We’re on course for growing a bit more than most others this year which should close gap a littleView attachment 38359

It was shmmee’s chart.
It is being reported that wealth creators are divesting themselves of investments and looking to relocate. There are reports that companies are delaying hiring decisions, Does not bode well.

 

[MalcSB]

It would’ve helped but our PMIs have been stronger recently inc manufacturing which indicates some proper growth. As I’ve mentioned people/businesses were buying into a new government coming in, some long overdue stability and hopefully some growth policies (like the planning stuff, infrastructure etc). Just hope it’s not wasted. But we should all just wait and see what’s in the budget really

Edit - gdp per capita hasn’t been pretty for a while, it’s probably been the wrong type of immigration in some respects recently added to higher economic inactivity numbers

What is the wrong type of immigration?

 

[CCFCSteve]

What is the wrong type of immigration?

People who aren’t filling the job roles we need/are available (or doing the jobs that U.K. economically inactive would do/could with right training - less likely but possible), dependents of students and lower paid workers etc

ps thought I’d seen that chart before !

 

[fernandopartridge]

Doesn't this show greater growth for the UK since the Covid low point? So not just one quarter.
View attachment 38357

The challenge for Labour is to do better. They are already breaking promises and shelving others.

Well no, it shows the UK still hasn't recovered even to its pre-covid piss poor performance.

Why did it see a much greater economic decline during Covid than the EU or US? Who was in charge at that point?

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

We are living in a clown world.

 

[MalcSB]

Well no, it shows the UK still hasn't recovered even to its pre-covid piss poor performance.

Why did it see a much greater economic decline during Covid than the EU or US? Who was in charge at that point?

That is the big question. Did the UK take actions which other countries didn't - I don't know, like furlough schemes etc that had a bigger impact.
It will be very interesting to see
a) How everyone is feeling by Christmas 2024
b) What the economic markers are by August 2025
c) How much Miliband has reduced my energy bill by August 2025
d) How many new homes have been built by August 2025
e) How many people have drowned mid channel as the gangs are broken by August 2025

 

[wingy]

Not much into my economics but the US and Europe are using different strategies to boost their economies out of the Covid downturn.

The US could be in real trouble with their low exchange rates and debt if unemployment goes up, and the German economy is meant to be set for a real dodgy patch too.

Other emerging markets like China doesn't seem to be taking off at all.

Better reinstate the trading conditions that make the world tick then?

 

[fernandopartridge]

Not much into my economics but the US and Europe are using different strategies to boost their economies out of the Covid downturn.

The US could be in real trouble with their low exchange rates and debt if unemployment goes up, and the German economy is meant to be set for a real dodgy patch too.

Other emerging markets like China doesn't seem to be taking off at all.

The US are not going to be in any trouble with its debt. They can pay any debt in USD at any time as the issuer of USD. This is exactly the same as UK government debt in £.

The only trouble comes from the respective politicians at best ignorance of this point, or at worst, understanding that any debt in £ can be easily repaid but continued intention to mislead the public on it.

 

[wingy]

The US are not going to be in any trouble with its debt. They can pay any debt in USD at any time as the issuer of USD. This is exactly the same as UK government debt in £.

The only trouble comes from the respective politicians at best ignorance of this point, or at worst, understanding that any debt in £ can be easily repaid but continued intention to mislead the public on it.

Although it is weak ATM, behind the euro by around 10 cents, the pound meanwhile is overvalued due to Boe policy, get your act together!!

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The ‘optics’ of this just keep getting worse. Is it really worth burning up all your goodwill for £1 billion?

Rachel Reeves urges Labour MPs to back winter fuel payment cut

Some Labour MPs are uneasy over the move to scrap winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[shmmeee]

The ‘optics’ of this just keep getting worse. Is it really worth burning up all your goodwill for £1 billion?

Rachel Reeves urges Labour MPs to back winter fuel payment cut

Some Labour MPs are uneasy over the move to scrap winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners.

www.bbc.co.uk

Its just bollocks isn’t it. “Oh blame the tories”. The Tories didn’t make you refuse to raise any taxes or follow batshit economic theory of cutting for prosperity.

 

[shmmeee]

Though this is also bollocks. By definition it’s not the poorest pensioners is it Diane you lemon?



As bad as the moron that said pensioners need money cos they fought in the war.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Its just bollocks isn’t it. “Oh blame the tories”. The Tories didn’t make you refuse to raise any taxes or follow batshit economic theory of cutting for prosperity.

As the Democrats are finding out, the public don’t care about economic indicators if their personal experience is unchanged or gets worse.

 

[shmmeee]

What did make me laugh is one of the radical feminists I follow was blaming it all on Starmers masculinity and need to look tough and if we had a woman none of this would happen. I did remind her we have the first female chancellor.

 

[shmmeee]

As the Democrats are finding out, the public don’t care about economic indicators if their personal experience is unchanged or gets worse.

Im not sure US politics is applicable to anywhere else TBH. Country is cooked.

 

[CCFCSteve]

The US are not going to be in any trouble with its debt. They can pay any debt in USD at any time as the issuer of USD. This is exactly the same as UK government debt in £.

The only trouble comes from the respective politicians at best ignorance of this point, or at worst, understanding that any debt in £ can be easily repaid but continued intention to mislead the public on it.

But it still potentially leads to the problems discussed before. The less perceived control over the deficit the more the markets will charge on the debt, to pay the interest on the debt you need to print more $/£ (as you’re running a deficit), if you print more $/£ you debase the currency ie people get less for their $/£.

all this happens with assets increasing in value in $/£ terms, the rich get richer as they own the assets and the poor getting poorer as they can’t afford the buy the appreciating assets and most of their income goes on the inflated prices (in $/£ terms) just to live

I agree with the fundamental point that the USA cant run out of cash, it’s just that over time that $ is just worth less

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Im not sure US politics is applicable to anywhere else TBH. Country is cooked.

I think it is in this specific case. ‘Look, I’ve reduced the deficit by 0.5%!’ ‘So?’

 

[shmmeee]

I think it is in this specific case. ‘Look, I’ve reduced the deficit by 0.5%!’ ‘So?’

But different though when you’ve got some of the best economic performance but an electorate too polarised to notice. Nothing to do with the deficit.

You’re right though no voter rewards you for a smaller deficit.