The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (80 Viewers)

[Sick Boy]

The EU has an agreement with May that is in the best interest of the EU but not the best interest for the UK. The EU keeps the money rolling in from the UK. The EU keeps selling lots more to the UK than it buys. The only thing that would change mainly would be that May could say she has taken us out of the EU. Freedom of movement would most probably remain. We would most probably still pay for the running of the EU.

Red lines? You talk as though they are the idea of May. But they are the idea of the EU. She is trying to force through the EU plan. Yet you make out it is all the fault of May.

And yet again nobody voted for this. People either voted leave or remain. It wasn't how we leave or how we remain. The May/EU deal isn't either leaving or remaining. Tusk has seen the problems. But a few leaders are still playing along with it. Leave without a deal looks presently off the table. So some think they can go for the throat thinking we will fully remain. Maybe we will. But it is turning into a game of Russian roulette.

Where has it been said that FoM would continue?

Of course the EU is going to work to get the best deals for itself, it was always obvious it was going to and have the upper-hand, despite what we were told.

If the UK does leave, the thought of the country being taken advantage of when it comes to trade deals is very depressing.

Everyone knows that May came up with her red lines, I think during her Lancaster House speech.

 

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[Astute]

Which version of leave did 17,4 million agree on? Baring in mind that the government and leave campaign promised a deal that would be good for Britain. Which deal was it?

Can you show me what you say was promised?

The majority voted to leave. That was it. They were told by the B of E, British government and the British PM that their homes would devalue, millions of jobs would be lost, inflation would soar and more if they voted leave. It was all bad news. Yet they still voted leave. And it didn't happen. We now have record employment, low inflation and house prices went up.

Anyone like yourself can choose someone who said something. But what was the official line? What was the leaflet that was posted to everyone? Did that say we would leave with a good deal or did it play with words and numbers to get us to vote remain?

 

[tisza]

I'm pretty sure absolutely no one voted for a deal which would leave the UK in the EU in everything but name which is the only option that May is offering.

EU has to think longer term and in its own self-interest. They don't want it to be easy for states to leave - that's why there is no pre-prepared exit formula.
They want to be able to say to States in the future "look how difficult, complicated etc it was for a big state to leave do you really want the aggro?".
Quite possible in the future a key geographical state like Hungary or Austria could want to leave which could cause major headaches. So keep it messy, set a precedent and try and make it unpalatable for states to leave.
Parliament keep falling down with public by telling them what they may have to keep rather than what they are also taking back.
Where it will fall down is in the future UK people will resent being told what to do by EU without having a say. We leave with a soft deal and further down the line the whole issue will rear up again.
I don’t see any point in a deal when you don't have a proper say in your future or national management.
Overall politically (not just economy) you either Remain or leave with No Deal. Nothing more certain than the re-emergence of a large UKIP-style party in the future if any policies "imposed" that the original Leave voters én masse don't like.

 

[Astute]

Where has it been said that FoM would continue?

Of course the EU is going to work to get the best deals for itself, it was always obvious it was going to and have the upper-hand, despite what we were told.

If the UK does leave, the thought of the country being taken advantage of when it comes to trade deals is very depressing.

Everyone knows that May came up with her red lines, I think during her Lancaster House speech.

FOM would continue until at least the end of 2020. Then the talks on a trade agreement would start. How many countries in Europe that have a trade agreement with the EU but are not a part of the EU do not have FOM?

Yes May told us about her so called deal. But are you trying to say it was all her idea and the EU had nothing to do with it?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Well this could be surprisingly easy.

EU has to think longer term and in its own self-interest. They don't want it to be easy for states to leave - that's why there is no pre-prepared exit formula.
They want to be able to say to States in the future "look how difficult, complicated etc it was for a big state to leave do you really want the aggro?".
Quite possible in the future a key geographical state like Hungary or Austria could want to leave which could cause major headaches. So keep it messy, set a precedent and try and make it unpalatable for states to leave.

What astonishes me is how many people seemed to think we were so impoortant, we'd do better than if we stayed in financially. It was always going to be the case that they needed to set an example. If we ended up with a better deal out than in, what would be the point of the EU?

Where it will fall down is in the future UK people will resent being told what to do by EU without having a say. We leave with a soft deal and further down the line the whole issue will rear up again.
I don’t see any point in a deal when you don't have a proper say in your future or national management.

That I agree with entirely. The compromises seem absurd when they end up effectively the same as now, but we have no influence. That seems utterly mental and I can only assume some politicians may well be stupid, but some are also pushing the long game where it's a step towards making staying in an option able to be voiced. It does surprise me given nearly half the voters were for staying in, and opinion polls vary now, that more aren't prepared to voice that. I suspect there's a large band in the middle (both leave and remain) who aren't that bothered anyway!

Overall politically (not just economy) you either Remain or leave with No Deal.

Would differ about that. Frighteningly, May's deal may well be the best option for a Leave alternative to Remain. Sufficient distinction in there to offer changes, but not the suicide of a No Deal.

 

[Astute]

EU has to think longer term and in its own self-interest. They don't want it to be easy for states to leave - that's why there is no pre-prepared exit formula.
They want to be able to say to States in the future "look how difficult, complicated etc it was for a big state to leave do you really want the aggro?".
Quite possible in the future a key geographical state like Hungary or Austria could want to leave which could cause major headaches. So keep it messy, set a precedent and try and make it unpalatable for states to leave.
Parliament keep falling down with public by telling them what they may have to keep rather than what they are also taking back.
Where it will fall down is in the future UK people will resent being told what to do by EU without having a say. We leave with a soft deal and further down the line the whole issue will rear up again.
I don’t see any point in a deal when you don't have a proper say in your future or national management.
Overall politically (not just economy) you either Remain or leave with No Deal. Nothing more certain than the re-emergence of a large UKIP-style party in the future if any policies "imposed" that the original Leave voters én masse don't like.

Exactly how I see it. I need something sorted but can see problems in the future with a bad deal for the UK. If we remain in the EU with some sort of trade deal which will most probably mean hardly anything will change we will have a majority who voted to leave watching their version getting worse.

 

[Astute]

Would differ about that. Frighteningly, May's deal may well be the best option for a Leave alternative to Remain. Sufficient distinction in there to offer changes, but not the suicide of a No Deal.

Which is why she seems to keep pushing it. Her deal allows the negotiations to start where anything could end up being the result.

Suicide no deal? Certainly not good news but would guess not as bad as it is made out to be. Would EU countries suddenly not want to trade with us?

The EU stated that nothing would change for a year or so if we left without a deal. This is for their benefit not ours. Can anyone not suddenly see those involved getting around a table for talks? But yes there certainly would be a lot of uncertainty.

 

[tisza]

Would differ about that. Frighteningly, May's deal may well be the best option for a Leave alternative to Remain. Sufficient distinction in there to offer changes, but not the suicide of a No Deal.

Making the assumption May deal is dead.

The other soft Leave alternatives are becoming such in that will not appeal to Leavers, will sacrifice Parliamentary sovereignty in key areas (which nobody will like in the end), nobody is happy when you lose self determination without a voice.
Politicians looking for an answer at any costs rather than stepping back and analysing overall situation.

 

[Sick Boy]

FOM would continue until at least the end of 2020. Then the talks on a trade agreement would start. How many countries in Europe that have a trade agreement with the EU but are not a part of the EU do not have FOM?

Yes May told us about her so called deal. But are you trying to say it was all her idea and the EU had nothing to do with it?

The other countries are in the EEA.

What did the EU have to do with her red lines of freedom of movement ending and the others from her Lancaster House speech?

 

[Grendel]

The other countries are in the EEA.

What did the EU have to do with her red lines of freedom of movement ending and the others from her Lancaster House speech?

Switzerland is not in the EEA

 

[Sick Boy]

Switzerland is not in the EEA

Ahh yes, you’re correct. They’ve still elected to keep FoM though.

 

[martcov]

Can you show me what you say was promised?

The majority voted to leave. That was it. They were told by the B of E, British government and the British PM that their homes would devalue, millions of jobs would be lost, inflation would soar and more if they voted leave. It was all bad news. Yet they still voted leave. And it didn't happen. We now have record employment, low inflation and house prices went up.

Anyone like yourself can choose someone who said something. But what was the official line? What was the leaflet that was posted to everyone? Did that say we would leave with a good deal or did it play with words and numbers to get us to vote remain?

It said we would leave with a deal if the vote were to leave. Leave campaign also said that.

 

[martcov]

Switzerland is not in the EEA

They are in Schengen though.

 

[martcov]

Making the assumption May deal is dead.

The other soft Leave alternatives are becoming such in that will not appeal to Leavers, will sacrifice Parliamentary sovereignty in key areas (which nobody will like in the end), nobody is happy when you lose self determination without a voice.
Politicians looking for an answer at any costs rather than stepping back and analysing overall situation.

Which key areas will be sacrificed?

 

[martcov]

FOM would continue until at least the end of 2020. Then the talks on a trade agreement would start. How many countries in Europe that have a trade agreement with the EU but are not a part of the EU do not have FOM?

Yes May told us about her so called deal. But are you trying to say it was all her idea and the EU had nothing to do with it?

The red lines are all her own idea of leave. The EU has had to come up with a deal to fit them.

 

[tisza]

Which key areas will be sacrificed?

Not sure I see a deal atm.

Think May could end up with a leadership challenge. Red lines vary on different areas. Eg putting up candidates in EU elections a red line for many MPs. May trying to tie up a deal which potentially hamstrings her successors redline for manyTory remainers and leavers MPs. Labour seems to be customs unions.

 

[Astute]

Ahh yes, you’re correct. They’ve still elected to keep FoM though.

And to which I said we would finally start negotiations and where I see FOM remaining.

I haven't seen anything to tell me FOM will stop. The EU said they would like it to remain as a part of any deal. And as I said all countries in Europe with a trade deal with the EU allows FOM.

 

[Sick Boy]

And to which I said we would finally start negotiations and where I see FOM remaining.

I haven't seen anything to tell me FOM will stop. The EU said they would like it to remain as a part of any deal. And as I said all countries in Europe with a trade deal with the EU allows FOM.

If the UK leaves then I believe FoM will end in its current form, especially as the UK would likely be outside of the SM.

Seeing as the EU is supposed to be on its last legs, the UK shouldn’t have too many problems calling the shots then

 

[Astute]

If the UK leaves then I believe FoM will end in its current form, especially as the UK would likely be outside of the SM.

Seeing as the EU is supposed to be on its last legs, the UK shouldn’t have too many problems calling the shots then

So let me guess. You tried to prove me wrong but got a slight detail wrong. So now someone is supposed to have said that the EU is on its last legs.

I didn't say that FOM would survive in its current form. What I said is the EU stated that they would like FOM to continue as a part of any deal with a free trade agreement. If we do end up leaving with a trade deal I can't see much changing. That would be the price of having a free trade agreement. Just like the other countries in Europe that have a trade deal with the EU.

 

[Sick Boy]

So let me guess. You tried to prove me wrong but got a slight detail wrong. So now someone is supposed to have said that the EU is on its last legs.

I didn't say that FOM would survive in its current form. What I said is the EU stated that they would like FOM to continue as a part of any deal with a free trade agreement. If we do end up leaving with a trade deal I can't see much changing. That would be the price of having a free trade agreement. Just like the other countries in Europe that have a trade deal with the EU.

Plenty on this forum have gone on about the EU being on its last legs and how the UK would start a domino effect, they’ve been quiet about it recently though.

I wasn’t trying to prove you wrong at all, I think the UK would be able to secure a trade deal without freedom of movement though.

 

[Astute]

Plenty on this forum have gone on about the EU being on its last legs and how the UK would start a domino effect, they’ve been quiet about it recently though.

I wasn’t trying to prove you wrong at all, I think the UK would be able to secure a trade deal without freedom of movement though.

So why would we be the only country tied to the EU without FOM?

 

[Sick Boy]

So why would we be the only country tied to the EU without FOM?

There are other countries ‘tied to it’ that don’t have FoM.

 

[dutchman]

Plenty on this forum have gone on about the EU being on its last legs and how the UK would start a domino effect, they’ve been quiet about it recently though.

I said once they've seen how the UK can still survive outside the EU it would start a domino effect.

The UK hasn't left yet. In fact it's no closer to leaving than it was three years ago.

I also said the UK will never leave as long as May is Prime Minister and that the EU would probably fall apart before the UK could leave.

None of those opinions have changed.

 

[tisza]

Plenty on this forum have gone on about the EU being on its last legs and how the UK would start a domino effect, they’ve been quiet about it recently though.

I wasn’t trying to prove you wrong at all, I think the UK would be able to secure a trade deal without freedom of movement though.

Let's wait and see what the final outcome is. A reasonable deal and other countries in the future might find it more attractive and many would have a geographical advantage to put pressure on re: FOM etc.
Countries seeing how difficult it is to leave particularly without clear Govt. Let's face it May had got the majority that looked likely a couple of weeks before 2017 GE and even ERG would have been irrelevant.

 

[Sick Boy]

I said once they've seen how the UK can still survive outside the EU it would start a domino effect.

The UK hasn't left yet. In fact it's no closer to leaving than it was three years ago.

I also said the UK will never leave as long as May is Prime Minister and that the EU would probably fall apart before the UK could leave.

None of those opinions have changed.

The UK was/is one of the more powerful countries in the EU and also on the world stage, considering how challenging it has proven for the UK, does not bode well for other countries that do not have such power and consider leaving in the future.

 

[Sick Boy]

Let's wait and see what the final outcome is. A reasonable deal and other countries in the future might find it more attractive and many would have a geographical advantage to put pressure on re: FOM etc.
Countries seeing how difficult it is to leave particularly without clear Govt. Let's face it May had got the majority that looked likely a couple of weeks before 2017 GE and even ERG would have been irrelevant.

Issues with internal EU migration are very much a British issue, saying that though, Britain has had FoM in one shape or another for much of its recent history - Freedom of movement didn't start with the EU - it's the norm for Britain

 

[tisza]

Issues with internal EU migration are very much a British issue, saying that though, Britain has had FoM in one shape or another for much of its recent history - Freedom of movement didn't start with the EU - it's the norm for Britain

But if a country like Hungary decides to leave puts a real spanner in the works due to location. Neighbouring 7 EU countries and Serbia. Major road transport route for EU importers from Asia via Turkey.
As someone who was driving to Hungary a lot before 2004 believe wasn't easy crossing any of the borders in any direction.

 

[dutchman]

The UK was/is one of the more powerful countries in the EU and also on the world stage, considering how challenging it has proven for the UK, does not bode well for other countries that do not have such power and consider leaving in the future.

It's only "challenging" when you have a Prime Minister who's determined to remain at any cost.

 

[tisza]

The UK was/is one of the more powerful countries in the EU and also on the world stage, considering how challenging it has proven for the UK, does not bode well for other countries that do not have such power and consider leaving in the future.

But once one leaves at least there is some sort of visible exit pattern. Not saying it's likely but many other EU countries in South and East far more politically volatile than UK.
Shouldn't overlook a resistance against a feeling of being forced by larger states into a more integrated EU. Soviet shadow still hangs heavy - also a reason why nationalist themes still strong in the East.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

It's only "challenging" when you have a Prime Minister who's determined to remain at any cost.

We'd already be drinking pints of Mackesons and doffing our hats to the Queen as she turned up on a steam train to open our new immigrant extermination centres, if Davis had done what he was supposed to.

 

[Sick Boy]

It's only "challenging" when you have a Prime Minister who's determined to remain at any cost.

Haha! It’s hilarious how leavers are unable to accept any responsibility whatsoever and it’s always the fault of someone else.

Considering how useless May is, it says a lot about all of those Brexiteers who had positions of power and managed to mess it up, and those who didn’t even bother to challenge and went into hiding.

At some point the Brexiteers and the advocates of this mess are going to have to hold their hands up and accept responsibility for messing the country up, not that it’s likely to happen any time soon.

 

[dutchman]

Haha! It’s hilarious how leavers are unable to accept any responsibility whatsoever and it’s always the fault of someone else.

Considering how useless May is, it says a lot about all of those Brexiteers who had positions of power and managed to mess it up, and those who didn’t even bother to challenge and went into hiding.

At some point the Brexiteers and the advocates of this mess are going to have to hold their hands up and accept responsibility for messing the country up, not that it’s likely to happen any time soon.

What mess?

Nothing has changed here since you left.

Britain is still a full member of the EU and doesn't look like leaving any time in the near future.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I was a strong Brexiteer. Now we must swallow our pride and think again

 

[Astute]

I was a strong Brexiteer. Now we must swallow our pride and think again

I read it up to where he showed he doesn't know what he is talking about when saying we should accept the Tusk offer. There wasn't a Tusk offer. And it couldn't be offered until the other 27 countries agreed.

 

[martcov]

I read it up to where he showed he doesn't know what he is talking about when saying we should accept the Tusk offer. There wasn't a Tusk offer. And it couldn't be offered until the other 27 countries agreed.

There was and Tusk is the spokesperson for the 27 other countries.

Here is a long article about how the elite try and manipulate Brexit voters:

How Rupert Murdoch’s Empire of Influence Remade the World