Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (193 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I'll tell you what happens at A&E at present...

You get a letter from your doctor, you go along but you're not let inside as there are too many people waiting already. Once you *are* let inside, you're not allowed to take anyone in with you, so even though you're at death's door, the best they can do is push you inside in the wheelchair, walk out, see the doors shut behind you and wonder if you'll ever see that person again...

Then you wait for hours to be seen, before eventually you are. Then you're admitted, and placed on a bed for yet more hours, waiting for a space on a ward. These spaces are under pressure because, of course, at this stage any infection from Covid could finish you off because you're so weak, and you don't want bellends pointing out you got Covid when in hospital, so its not *really* Covid that killed you. You then get your bed in a ward where they keep the windows open if at all possible (but of course the time of year is not great for that, so it's a payoff of freezing your patients, and giving adequate ventilation in criminally underfunded buildings) and give you a Covid test daily, because any infection spreading in the ward could finish off all who are there with you... and you don't want bellends pointing out you got Covid when in hospital, so its not *really* Covid that killed you. No visitors for that reason either, as they absolutely *need* to keep infection away from you.

Then you get rehabilitated as quickly as they can, and sent home as soon as they can because, even more so than usually, they *need* the beds for the next queue of people waiting for admission. Then again, it might be too soon really, but you haven't seen your family for a couple of weeks, and they haven't seen you, and they need to tell you that they love you. You've avoided being finished off by Covid too, by the measures put in place, but those measures restrict capacity too, of course... exacerbated by an underfunded system, that means there's no spare resource available for a crisis.

Or indeed how about what happens at hospital. You start experiencing chest pains and general discomfort, so call for an ambulance. They take you in and put you in a room on your own because Covid, no visitors allowed. You have a heart attack, get revived. Have another, get revived. Have a third, don’t get revived. Your relatives aren’t even allowed to see you when you’re dead or to say goodbye. There is then some attempt to link it to Covid despite not having it.

Happened this summer.

 

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[Marty]

Do you mind if I ask where you’ve heard that? Literally heard no rumblings at all which you often pick up from people in the know.

Yeah, no problem, it's from someone very high up in education. They also told me that if the exams go ahead, GCSEs will be adjusted to make it easier for learners, things like a formula sheet will be given for maths, prompts for English etc. Basically the idea being that the current lot have had such a disrupted learning for the past 2 years that it's unfair on them so adjustments will be made.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yeah, no problem, it's from someone very high up in education. They also told me that if the exams go ahead, GCSEs will be adjusted to make it easier for learners, things like a formula sheet will be given for maths, prompts for English etc. Basically the idea being that the current lot have had such a disrupted learning for the past 2 years that it's unfair on them so adjustments will be made.

That last part is well known. Really wish they would just stop insisting on the kids having to isolate.

 

[shmmeee]

It seems like it is for a lot of them though?

It’s the first time there’s been an infectious disease that’s a harm to so many people. If you work with kids for example you’ve always needed Measles vaccine. It’s been in the health and safety guidance and staff guidelines forever.

Its like signing up for the army during peacetime them saying you don’t want to be deployed during a war. It was always a possibility and if you really don’t want to do it then there’s other jobs out there.

 

[shmmeee]

Have heard no such thing.

Same. I’m signed up like normal for exam marking unlike the last two years. Won’t be happy if they take my holiday fund away again

 

[Marty]

That last part is well known. Really wish they would just stop insisting on the kids having to isolate.

Only passing on what I've been told, it's not something that's effects me either way so no reason to make it up/lie.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Same. I’m signed up like normal for exam marking unlike the last two years. Won’t be happy if they take my holiday fund away again

The exam boards sent through summer exam timetables a while ago, they have at least written some papers I assume so they might not ask teachers to do their work for them again. Hasn’t of course stopped Mrs BSB’s SMT asking her dept to turn around hundreds of essays in a couple of days as part of the DfE mandated TAG contingency

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Only passing on what I've been told, it's not something that's effects me either way so no reason to make it up/lie.

I’m not saying you are just have spoken with some Heads this week who are none the wiser. It’s not a system really is it.

 

[CCFCSteve]

May have misunderstood your point but hospitalisations lags cases and only the booster severely reduces hospitalisations IIRC so if you’ve got record case numbers now and low booster percentages then record hospitalisations is baked in over the next couple of weeks.

Yeah, agree with the lag, higher hospitalisations are coming. What I’m querying though is firstly, apparently, there is protection from severe illness and hospitalisation even from two jabs as well as natural immunity protection. Vaccines alone just aren’t stopping transmission as we can see. Secondly, booster numbers in those at most risk aren’t low. 45% overall doesn’t look great but that’s over 12s. I think I heard yesterday that 88/90% of over 70s are boosted and looking at the numbers I’d imagine a vast majority of over 50s have probably received a booster. Younger people as we know are at lower risk and will have had double jabs more recently so should naturally be at lower risk of hospitalisation

I’m not doubting that hospitalisations aren’t already baked in. High transmission alone will see an increase. It’s the level of of increase that is the big unknown and how long people then stay on hospital*. This obviously will be dependent on severity of variant and effectiveness of vaccines, boosters and natural immunity on it. Still all unknown


*initial view from SA was that people staying in hospital for far shorter periods. This keeps Covid inpatients number lower

 

[shmmeee]

Yeah, agree with the lag, higher hospitalisations are coming. What I’m querying though is firstly, apparently, there is protection from severe illness and hospitalisation even from two jabs as well as natural immunity protection. Vaccines alone just aren’t stopping transmission as we can see. Secondly, booster numbers in those at most risk aren’t low. 45% overall doesn’t look great but that’s over 12s. I think I heard yesterday that 88/90% of over 70s are boosted and looking at the numbers I’d imagine a vast majority of over 50s have probably received a booster. Younger people as we know are at lower risk and will have had double jabs more recently so should naturally be at lower risk of hospitalisation

I’m not doubting that hospitalisations aren’t already baked in. High transmission alone will see an increase. It’s the level of of increase that is the big unknown and how long people then stay on hospital*. This obviously will be dependent on severity of variant and effectiveness of vaccines, boosters and natural immunity on it. Still all unknown


*initial view from SA was that people staying in hospital for far shorter periods. This keeps Covid inpatients number lower

Agree with a lot of that, I think the missing variable is pure scale of infection. Whitty seemed to be saying we’re going to see such massive numbers that even a reduced severity won’t change the outcome of lots of people I’ll at the same time.

My understanding is Omicrons issue is two fold: previous infection and two shots aren’t effective (20/30% respectively compared to 80%+ in older variants) and it spreads significantly faster. So while over the same population eventually fewer people will be hospitalised they’ll all come in over a shorter period making it harder to cope. And at the same time these people are coming in NHS staff will be catching it and be off work further reducing capacity.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

If this is actually confirmed as a lab leak rather than of natural origin, China should be levied some pretty big reparations.

 

[shmmeee]

Yeah, no problem, it's from someone very high up in education. They also told me that if the exams go ahead, GCSEs will be adjusted to make it easier for learners, things like a formula sheet will be given for maths, prompts for English etc. Basically the idea being that the current lot have had such a disrupted learning for the past 2 years that it's unfair on them so adjustments will be made.

The stuff about making adjustments is public knowledge: Decisions on contingency arrangements 2022: GCSE, AS, A level, Project and AEA

I’d be amazed if anyone knows what the government will do now, even the government themselves.

 

[shmmeee]

If this is actually confirmed as a lab leak rather than of natural origin, China should be levied some pretty big reparations.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The stuff about making adjustments is public knowledge: Decisions on contingency arrangements 2022: GCSE, AS, A level, Project and AEA

I’d be amazed if anyone knows what the government will do now, even the government themselves.

Hopefully they at least learn from opening schools for a day then closing them.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

View attachment 23156

I don’t Xi your point.

 

[shmmeee]

Hopefully they at least learn from opening schools for a day then closing them.

What’s your take on Zahawi? Obviously he’s batshit but seems slightly more competent than Williamson (high praise indeed).

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

What’s your take on Zahawi? Obviously he’s batshit but seems slightly more competent than Williamson (high praise indeed).

He comes from a good STEM background which qualifies him far better than the mindless goon that preceded him. Still he will pursue a ‘break the unions’ strategy which was of course Johnson’s biggest criticism of Williamson for not doing this.

 

[Houchens Head]

 

[Marty]

The stuff about making adjustments is public knowledge: Decisions on contingency arrangements 2022: GCSE, AS, A level, Project and AEA

I’d be amazed if anyone knows what the government will do now, even the government themselves.

Just passing on info, like I said, they're high up and told me it's all been agreed. No reason to disbelieve them, but like you say, with this government, a decision now could change 5 times by the end of the week.

 

[chiefdave]

Getting a strong sense of deja vu with other countries putting restrictions on people entering from the UK and basically being told to do what you think is best in terms of attending events.

What odds on some form of lockdown in January as things have got out of control with the blame being placed on the public for too much mixing over Christmas?

 

[jordan210]

Getting a strong sense of deja vu with other countries putting restrictions on people entering from the UK and basically being told to do what you think is best in terms of attending events.

What odds on some form of lockdown in January as things have got out of control with the blame being placed on the public for too much mixing over Christmas?

Rumours from a few weeks ago is lockdown is pre planned for 5th of Jan.

 

[Macca1987]

Absolutely, and I think that's why there's genuine concern (as opposed to the Boris get-out-of-jail-free kind).

It looks like infections are going to rise exponentially, in fact if I had a fiver I fancy we might start running out of test kits sometime in January. Whether hospital admissions and deaths will follow is the great unknown.

The hope is that the variant is very much weaker, or that it doesn't break through the vaccination.

On the latter, the data doesn't look great, but on the former there might be hope. But it's going to have to be massively weaker given the number of likely infections.

I hope that people like Nick are right, and it turns out to be a complete false alarm and I end up being ritually humiliated on here. Who wouldn't want that.

But still, given the numbers and data I think it's absolutely right to err on the side of caution. A little inconvenience now might save an awful lot of pain later, imho.

Completely agree with you duffer on erring on the side of caution. I think I sit mainly in the camp of we need to do something, the only thing that galls me daily is the mis information on figures or the lack of detail. For example quotes that hospitalisations in London have risen 10%, is that 10% on top of 20 or 200 or 2000. Then you get quotes from modelling that the entire population could be infected by January, We have 20 million now with boosters, I know the new variant can still get passed as it's not 100% protective, but surely it's not going to infect 20 million boosted people, so again that a whole heap of the population that aren't going to get it.

 

[shmmeee]

Rumours from a few weeks ago is lockdown is pre planned for 5th of Jan.

The fact they’d let people go back to work for one day on the 4th before locking down makes this all the more believable.

 

[chiefdave]

A timely article from The BBC today given the discussion about A&E on here the last couple of days.

Quarter of ambulances getting stuck in A&E queues

Staff warning patients being put at risk because of handover delays at hospital.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[chiefdave]

Where are we at with people catching covid twice? You can get the new variant if you've had covid before but can you get the new variant more than once?

Just thinking with talk of hundreds of thousands of cases a day in the near future is this the 'you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures' Johnson spoke about at the start of the pandemic?

There's a finite number of people, if we're talking about hundreds of thousands of infections a day, some people have even suggested we could top a million, there's only so long that can be sustained before it burns out isn't there?

Or is that just wishful thinking?

 

[clint van damme]

Where are we at with people catching covid twice? You can get the new variant if you've had covid before but can you get the new variant more than once?

Just thinking with talk of hundreds of thousands of cases a day in the near future is this the 'you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures' Johnson spoke about at the start of the pandemic?

There's a finite number of people, if we're talking about hundreds of thousands of infections a day, some people have even suggested we could top a million, there's only so long that can be sustained before it burns out isn't there?

Or is that just wishful thinking?

Said on the match thread my mate can't go Saturday because he's got Covid, this is his second occasion.
No idea what variants he's had. His son in law has it and he's quite ill and he vacinnated and as fit as a butchers dog so that's quite worrying.

 

[jordan210]

Where are we at with people catching covid twice? You can get the new variant if you've had covid before but can you get the new variant more than once?

Just thinking with talk of hundreds of thousands of cases a day in the near future is this the 'you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures' Johnson spoke about at the start of the pandemic?

There's a finite number of people, if we're talking about hundreds of thousands of infections a day, some people have even suggested we could top a million, there's only so long that can be sustained before it burns out isn't there?

Or is that just wishful thinking?

I don't think the NHS or ONS have these figures. As they have never properly studied anti bodies or infection type.

Remember a positive LFT doesn't mean you have it. Yet we count LTF's in figures. a lot of people claim they had covid but that doesn't prove anything.

working on Javids numbers. you would hit the whole population being infected by Christmas. So in theory yes it could burn it self out. Like it looks to have done in SA. Was this predicted a very early on that in history a virus will mutate and become easier to spread but less dangerous ?


Sky did a bit about the numbers. ignore the guy tweeting it

 

[Frostie]

The fact they’d let people go back to work for one day on the 4th before locking down makes this all the more believable.

With this government, who knows? Isn't that exactly what they did with the schools last January?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Hopefully they at least learn from opening schools for a day then closing them.

With this government, who knows? Isn't that exactly what they did with the schools last January?

Argh

 

[fernandopartridge]

Yeah, agree with the lag, higher hospitalisations are coming. What I’m querying though is firstly, apparently, there is protection from severe illness and hospitalisation even from two jabs as well as natural immunity protection. Vaccines alone just aren’t stopping transmission as we can see. Secondly, booster numbers in those at most risk aren’t low. 45% overall doesn’t look great but that’s over 12s. I think I heard yesterday that 88/90% of over 70s are boosted and looking at the numbers I’d imagine a vast majority of over 50s have probably received a booster. Younger people as we know are at lower risk and will have had double jabs more recently so should naturally be at lower risk of hospitalisation

I’m not doubting that hospitalisations aren’t already baked in. High transmission alone will see an increase. It’s the level of of increase that is the big unknown and how long people then stay on hospital*. This obviously will be dependent on severity of variant and effectiveness of vaccines, boosters and natural immunity on it. Still all unknown


*initial view from SA was that people staying in hospital for far shorter periods. This keeps Covid inpatients number lower

London patients in hospital with covid has increased BUT it looks like it's being driven more by people in hospital for other reasons who are catching it there, to be expected given the transmissibility.

People occupying beds primarily for covid up 6.5% over the week whereas people occupying beds for other reasons with covid up 64% over the week.

 

[jordan210]

 

[CCFCSteve]

I don't think the NHS or ONS have these figures. As they have never properly studied anti bodies or infection type.

Remember a positive LFT doesn't mean you have it. Yet we count LTF's in figures. a lot of people claim they had covid but that doesn't prove anything.

working on Javids numbers. you would hit the whole population being infected by Christmas. So in theory yes it could burn it self out. Like it looks to have done in SA. Was this predicted a very early on that in history a virus will mutate and become easier to spread but less dangerous ?


Sky did a bit about the numbers. ignore the guy tweeting it

The recent modelling on the new variant is all guesswork. There just isn’t the data. As I mentioned yesterday, even when there was decent data on delta variant the modellers best case scenarios were way off (overstated)

My issue isn’t the modellers as such, as long as they caveat their work, its their best estimate...it’s government, SAGE etc taking it as fact and the media then repeating it as fact and hyping it up. The review into start of pandemic highlighted the major problem of groupthink in SAGE, gov etc...I don’t think much has changed

The lack of transparency of certain elements of the data has been poor throughout this. The lack of critical thinking and questioning of the data presented has been embarrassing so fair play to Conway

 

[jordan210]

SA have not changed anything

 

[Saddlebrains]

SA have not changed anything

You've surely got to start questioning why this government is causing all this panic when the country that experienced it first, and had a hell of a case spike, is just carrying on regardless?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

You've surely got to start questioning why this government is causing all this panic when the country that experienced it first, and had a hell of a case spike, is just carrying on regardless?

Doesn’t mean the other country is right.