Sick Boy
Super Moderator
The UK was one of the hardest hit in the first wave.
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
I'm talking specifically about hospitalisation from covid in this instance.
If you take 100 people and variant A infects say 10 people with 1 hospitalised but variant b infects 50 people with 2 hospitalised it could be said to be milder but because its more infectious that equates to twice as many people being hospitalised.
Obviously completely made up numbers but you get the idea, it can be milder but lead to an increase in the number of people ending up in hospital, doesn't have to be one or the other.
jordan210
Well-Known Member
Hence why are death figure now is pretty stable and hasn't matched the curve of cases. Breaking the link
Blind-Faith
Well-Known Member
So from what I understand , it’s more transmissible so more people can catch it, but the percentage of people who could die from it is lower.
however with the chances of getting it being a lot higher that means, even that smaller percentage of people who could die from it, could in fact end up being a larger number than people who died from the previous strains???
however with the chances of getting it being a lot higher that means, even that smaller percentage of people who could die from it, could in fact end up being a larger number than people who died from the previous strains???
jimmyhillsfanclub
Well-Known Member
Fair enough.....I picked France as they are closest to us in terms of population size & I know Astute was banging on (and on) about how strict they were on the "pass sanitaire"...... clealy it ain't really helped much as they've got close to 13K in hospital & nearly 2.5K in ICU.....Le shit-show
Nick
Administrator
I guess they would also need to say how seriously ill they were.
More people could rock up with very mild symptoms and told to go home and rest or they could go in and be on life support.
You would really need details to be able to compare.
jordan210
Well-Known Member
I think it's near on impossible to know with out comparing figures including vaccine status of current/ past people in hospital and medical background. Did they catch it in hospital for example. So many variables.
But the news today showing 30 less severe and 2 jabs reduces hospitlisions is positive news. esp when SA only have a 30 double jab rate.
But we cant keep shutting down the country to protect the NHS on maybes. Or their wont be any business left to pay for it.
I don't normally reply on this one, but reading things the last few days I felt I needed too. I'm fully vaccinated 60 year old with booster and will do what I can for the country regarding wfh, face masks etc, but what I can't get my head round is the panic in the nation.
The figures quoted that can mean anything to anyone are
1 death (died from/died of)
10 in hospital
200,000 cases
Add to that and the words coming out from SA at the moment from doctors and experts that this variant is mild and after only several weeks they are seeing a decline in cases.
What I want to know is why no-one can tell me the following instead of just making up headline quotes, so I can have a better understanding and make my mind up on where I stand on all this.
A) the 1 death, vaccinated or unvaccinated, young or old, underlying conditions or not
B) the 10 in hospital, the same as A
Sorry if a lot of ramblings, but when every day we are being leaked out stories that we could have more severe restrictions over xmas etc, I look at the current figures and wonder why
The figures quoted that can mean anything to anyone are
1 death (died from/died of)
10 in hospital
200,000 cases
Add to that and the words coming out from SA at the moment from doctors and experts that this variant is mild and after only several weeks they are seeing a decline in cases.
What I want to know is why no-one can tell me the following instead of just making up headline quotes, so I can have a better understanding and make my mind up on where I stand on all this.
A) the 1 death, vaccinated or unvaccinated, young or old, underlying conditions or not
B) the 10 in hospital, the same as A
Sorry if a lot of ramblings, but when every day we are being leaked out stories that we could have more severe restrictions over xmas etc, I look at the current figures and wonder why
jordan210
Well-Known Member
I don't believe the Gov have announced any of this information.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
They don't know that it is a milder strain in severity. They do though that it shows immune escape from double vaccinated people regardless of when they had the 2nd dose. The immune escape is mitigated by the booster to an extent hence the push.
Nick
Administrator
If all 10 were unvaccinated you have to think that would have been shouted from the rooftops....
The majority were double vaccinated....
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
What does 30% even mean?
You've got Dominic Raab doing the rounds saying 250 in hospital, then 9, then 10, so they are quoting figures, just not getting things right, I wish they wouldn't release anything until everyone was on the same page
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Im assuming it means that from the data 30% less people compared to delta were getting either symptoms/severe illness
jordan210
Well-Known Member
Indeed, Rabb and Javid in two days have quoted high numbers. odd
How do you know he/she wasn't admitted for covid symptoms and then got tested? See how your argument js flawed?
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
It's not good to say stuff like that, but it is Raab so he probably genuinely has misunderstood. This is the man who said he didn't realise Dover was an important port and that crimes that happened in the past aren't investigated.
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Nick
Administrator
So they went in with bad covid symptons, tested positive and then died "with" omicron and not from it?
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
I remember Nick wasn't happy at all with lockdown, the closures of pubs and gyms and kept on going on about 'why are supermarkets open?'.
So I think it's he doesn't like to be cut off from people and has become a little bit paranoid about another lockdown and so see's everything in a slightly conspiratorial way of trying to get people stuck inside again. If he points this out early it won't get as far as the restrictions he fears the most.
To be fair, he has a small point because the media does like to sensationalise and can be misleading because it sells papers and gets clicks.
Nick
Administrator
There is no conspiracy involved, I am just pointing out facts. Over the whole Omicron thing there has been clear spin and misleading, it isn't paranoid to point that out.
Don't try to patronise.
Lockdown? Do you think many people would abide by it again?
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
A lot of what it comes down to is a lack of control over the situation and needing to find hidden intentions/conspiracies in everything.
That being said, the current UK rules are pretty nonsensical.
Nick
Administrator
What have I said that's a conspiracy, though?
If half the shit that has gone already on was suggested beforehand it would have been a "conspiracy".
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
I’m not talking about you specifically.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
On the guy having a Twitter meltdown, it’s standard sloppy reporting not fake news like he claims and he jumps around from cases to hospitalisations to ICU to “the most intensive care”. The numbers for “most intensive care” are over 90% unvaccinated. ICU was 75% ish and now down I think, hospitalisations are 36%.
Basically all sides are picking stats and arguing about different stats and none of it is comparable.
Basically all sides are picking stats and arguing about different stats and none of it is comparable.
Nick
Administrator
I fully get there are some complete nutjobs, the whole Bill Gates, the mind control type stuff.
Again though, it works both ways as there are people like that at both ends of the "argument". I can see some people being close to murder if they see somebody not wearing a mask.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Just wanted to make a point about the higher transmissibility/lower mortality argument.
People are saying how it's less deadly so we shouldn't worry about it as much, but being more transmissible more people will end having it so the numbers are still high.
Lets take a variant with a R rate of 1.2 and a mortality rate of 2%. A new variant comes out that is 30% more transmissible (R = 1.56) but 30% less deadly (mortality rate 1.4%)
If 10 people had each variant, by the tenth cycle the original variant would have infected just over 310 people in total and 6 would have died. The new variant which is less deadly but more transmissible would have infected a total of 2,350 people and over 30 would have died.
There are a few reasons why we're having less deaths now. Part of it is that a lot of the most vulnerable would have died in the initial waves so those that are left are more likely to be more robust to the disease. Vaccines are also really making a difference in bringing death rates down compared to earlier variants and without them we'd still be seeing big numbers and there is also *some* natural immunity for those who have survived the disease.
People are saying how it's less deadly so we shouldn't worry about it as much, but being more transmissible more people will end having it so the numbers are still high.
Lets take a variant with a R rate of 1.2 and a mortality rate of 2%. A new variant comes out that is 30% more transmissible (R = 1.56) but 30% less deadly (mortality rate 1.4%)
If 10 people had each variant, by the tenth cycle the original variant would have infected just over 310 people in total and 6 would have died. The new variant which is less deadly but more transmissible would have infected a total of 2,350 people and over 30 would have died.
There are a few reasons why we're having less deaths now. Part of it is that a lot of the most vulnerable would have died in the initial waves so those that are left are more likely to be more robust to the disease. Vaccines are also really making a difference in bringing death rates down compared to earlier variants and without them we'd still be seeing big numbers and there is also *some* natural immunity for those who have survived the disease.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
If they had bad covid symptoms how do you know they didn't die from it? If they were bad enough to be hospitalised there's a chance they did.
I'm not saying that's the case, just that the argument stacks up just as well as the one you're saying
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Didn't mean to patronise and if that's how you took it I apologise.
As for lockdown, of course I think much fewer people would abide by it than before, partly because of how much they hated it last time and they might be feeling this will never end, and partly because of the antics of the government in ignoring their own rules last time.
Nick
Administrator
I'm just pointing out that it was cleverly worded as "with".
If somebody had gone in there and died of severe Omicron there would have been even more fear whipped up.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I do think this take is partly a misunderstanding of how easy it is to assess cause of death and how Covid seems to work in that it exacerbates existing conditions.
It’s not a straightforward science in most cases to say what someone died from. Take someone who has a disease that makes them unstable on their feet and the trip and fall and die. Did the fall kill them or the disease? Same with an illness that exacerbates existing conditions. Not every Covid death is from breathing problems, some are just that it was the straw that broke the camels back.
Nick
Administrator
Pointed out months if not years ago this would never end.
Nick
Administrator
Would be interesting to see if the same metric was applied to people who die "with" obesity and other things in the UK.
Frostie
Well-Known Member
Yep. Same with the majority of stats stuff we regularly discuss over on the football forum, they are there as tools to help prove/disprove certain things or identify trends etc. You have to be comparing like for like & you can't just strip all context away either.
The problem is it's such a complex topic the Government don't even truly have a handle on which stats are important & what those are (particularly idiots like Raab) & the MSM are pretty clueless. I do agree the MSM will generally look to put a negative slant on things though as that's what sells.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Or indeed alcohol. Difference is we don’t have a vaccine for eating (unluckily for me) and fatties aren’t clogging the NHS while we wait for them to die.
Nick
Administrator
I'd bet that there are more people in hospital with Obesity related issues than COVID related issues.
It would also be interesting to see how many people suffering with COVID related issues suffer with Obesity issues.
There would be a big spike on Alcohol ones every weekend as well.