USSR invades Ukraine. (63 Viewers)

[Evo1883]

Erm I did say multiple times we won’t do anything because Putin has held the nuclear deterrent as a threat to anyone who intervenes. If he did it to Estonia would NATO really go all in to defend it?

The deterrent doesn’t work if one side really is willing to hit the button

I personally think , might be just me .. NATO would have no choice to react or Russia would never take them seriously again .. putin is mad but not thick

 

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[Sky Blue Pete]

Alternatively it’s do something while the invasion’s logistics are still poor and the forces lack cohesion.

I mean the thing is even the experts don’t know what happens but doing nothing is wrong as is poking and provoking. They both come wth consequences

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I personally think , might be just me .. NATO would have no choice to react or Russia would never take themselves seriously again .. putin is mad but not thick

So we would potentially risk the planet for a country of a million?

 

[Evo1883]

Would he bomb the UN?

Countries responsible , many already NATO members

 

[skybluetony176]

So now you know more than the western intelligence and Military experts.

You mean the ones that are pursuing a course of sanctions that you say won’t work. Wait. Are you saying that you know more than western intelligence and military experts.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Why wouldn't they react with the bombing of responsible countries ?

Wouldn’t be proportionate

 

[Evo1883]

So we would potentially risk the planet for a country of a million?

Actually NATO would show its prepared to back every one of its almost 1 billion people ... as it should

 

[Evo1883]

Wouldn’t be proportionate

Major conflicts only need a small trigger , look at WW1 , that didn't seem proportionate

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I mean the thing is even the experts don’t know what happens but doing nothing is wrong as is poking and provoking. They both come wth consequences

I simply think this idea of giving up Ukraine with the thought that Putin in good faith will co-operate afterwards is mad. He isn’t a rational actor, that much is very clear

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Actually NATO would show its prepared to back every one of its almost 1 billion people ... as it should

It’s a strange world

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Actually NATO would show its prepared to back every one of its almost 1 billion people ... as it should

So we do that for Estonia but let Ukraine go? Sorry just not getting it

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Major conflicts only need a small trigger , look at WW1 , that didn't seem proportionate

I know

 

[tisza]

Actually NATO would show its prepared to back every one of its almost 1 billion people ... as it should

Then we get into the nuclear weapon and MAD discussions. An all- out conflict between NATO and Russia would surely cost more than a million lives ( the approx population of Estonia)

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

You mean the ones that are pursuing a course of sanctions that you say won’t work. Wait. Are you saying that you know more than western intelligence and military experts.

G thought we should do nothing at all. The strategists disagreed

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Then we get into the nuclear weapon and MAD discussions. An all- out conflict between NATO and Russia would surely cost more than a million lives ( the approx population of Estonia)

It would

 

[PVA]

It's really quite simple.

NATO is a defensive alliance. It will defend it's members. It will not act as World Police and defend non-members.

Whether you agree with it or not, that's the reality.

 

[Evo1883]

So we do that for Estonia but let Ukraine go? Sorry just not getting it

Might not be right , but will definitely saves millions of lives

 

[skybluetony176]

I meant while you were belittling my job what do you do of such grand importance?

He’s a retired gateman from JLR.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

G thought we should do nothing at all. The strategists disagreed

To be fair I think he was saying as we don’t care about others we shouldn’t care about ukrainites

 

[Evo1883]

G thought we should do nothing at all. The strategists disagreed

I think sanctions are different to military intervention

 

[Houchens Head]

My missus' relations all live in a village in Ukraine. Her mum was born there, but back then, it was part of Poland. Then WW2 came, and the Russians took over and made it part of the USSR. Now it's part of Ukraine. The village is called Tomashhorod (Ukrainian is Томашгород and Polish is Tomaszgród )
This is why we are both taking a keen interest in what is happening.
.

 

[Evo1883]

This is only my opinion , could be totally wrong at the end of it all ..

 

[Evo1883]

My missus' relations all live in a village in Ukraine. Her mum was born there, but back then, it was part of Poland. Then WW2 came, and the Russians took over and made it part of the USSR. Now it's part of Ukraine. The village is called Tomashhorod (Ukrainian is Томашгород and Polish is Tomaszgród )
This is why we are both taking a keen interest in what is happening.
.

View attachment 24016

Hope they stay safe

 

[Evo1883]

You'd have to imagine though that if military intervention was to happen .. it would already have happened by now

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It's really quite simple.

NATO is a defensive alliance. It will defend it's members. It will not act as World Police and defend non-members.

Whether you agree with it or not, that's the reality.

If he invaded the Baltic states I highly doubt this defensive alliance would go toe to toe with him over it. We are dealing with someone who has clearly lost control over his senses. With the enormous landmass Russia has he’s got the least to fear of a nuclear attack out of anyone.

He genuinely can use it as a threat to invade wherever he pleases as current developments show

 

[tisza]

I simply think this idea of giving up Ukraine with the thought that Putin in good faith will co-operate afterwards is mad. He isn’t a rational actor, that much is very clear

We had the Budapest agreement. Russia wouldn't threaten Ukrainian territorial integrity if it gave up it nuclear weapons. Putin's argument is that he signed that with a pro- Moscow govt and this one isn't. So the treaty is not longer valid.
The territorial arguments that Ukraine historically belongs to Russia he has also repeated about those former Warsaw Pact countries that are now members of NATO.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I think sanctions are different to military intervention

G said we should just let them get on with it

 

[skybluetony176]

I think sanctions are different to military intervention

Depends what you define as military intervention. We’ve helped arm and train Ukraine army for a few years and upped the arms supply in the last few weeks and months.

 

[Evo1883]

If he invaded the Baltic states I highly doubt this defensive alliance would go toe to toe with him over it. We are dealing with someone who has clearly lost control over his senses. With the enormous landmass Russia has he’s got the least to fear of a nuclear attack out of anyone.

He genuinely can use it as a threat to invade wherever he pleases as current developments show

Not really mate , 75% of its population live in 23% of its land mass

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Not really mate , 75% of its population live in 23% of its land mass

That’s a sacrifice he’s likely willing to make

 

[CCFCSteve]

Erm I did say multiple times we won’t do anything because Putin has held the nuclear deterrent as a threat to anyone who intervenes. If he did it to Estonia would NATO really go all in to defend it?

The deterrent doesn’t work if one side really is willing to hit the button

I think all nato members are treaty bound to assist if Estonia asked for help. Putin knows this.

I understand both sides of the argument and however painful it is I’m really not sure us or any other nato members would currently risk nuclear war by getting involved militarily. We’re hoping the longer game works and fingers crossed it does.

I saw one poll at the very start of the invasion and a majority of people wouldn’t even support sanctions if it increased costs for them personally…yet many would happily send our troops in…I mean WTF ?!! I hope views have changed since then and people accept a bit of extra cost for the greater good…I think the sanctions will work but it will take time

edit - bigger issue in short to medium term is if he starts trying to pick off other smaller non-nato members which he might well try to do

 

[David O'Day]

It looks like the Ukrainians are fighting for more than their president. Not sure what him personally surrendering will achieve.

Nothing, if the Russian take Kiev and install a puppet leader the Ukrainians are fighting for the existence of what they see as the the freedom of their people.

They aren't going to stop

 

[Grendel]

G thought we should do nothing at all. The strategists disagreed

No I said the ultimate sanction they wouldn’t do and they haven’t

 

[tisza]

What's interesting is when nations like Sweden and Switzerland are getting involved maybe the picture is bigger than people would like to believe.

 

[Evo1883]

What are we going to be negotiating?

What they want , how Ukraine can remain an independent sovereign nation ? The alternative is to see it swallowed up by Russia and not exist , there's also a danger of civil war to discuss as there are many pro Russian Ukrainians..it's a strange region

One thing is certain , there wont be a western planted government in Russia like afghan and iraq