Astute
Well-Known Member
So has the £ crashed against all currencies like you keep saying? If you are being truthful the profits in real terms are much higher.
The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (300 Viewers)
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skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Exactly. The most expensive component that we buy is 90% copper and that component is made in the UK but they buy the copper raw material in dollars but sell the completed component to us in pounds. This particular component hasn't gone up yet as the company we buy from still have copper stock from before brexit and the pound crashing. But once that stock is gone any new raw material that they'll have to buy is going to cost more and that will be passed on to us who will then have to pass that on to our customers.
Astute
Well-Known Member
So are you looking forward to when the currencies get back to where they were before the vote and then go even higher?
You have lost the plot
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
So are you looking forward to when the currencies get back to where they were before the vote and then go even higher?
You have lost the plot
I'm saying that when you claim that a weak pound will help exports you're looking at it to simplistic. The opposite effect is that imports are more expensive and when the British manufacturing industry is heavily reliant on the import of raw materials and components it has to recuperate that cost with higher selling prices meaning that the supposed benefit is cancelled out.
Astute
Well-Known Member
So you are saying that the company you work for will be worse off with a weaker £ because it suits what you are trying to say.Or you didn't have a clue on how it benefits exporters. Because you certainly now know that the company that you work for will be worse off when the £ recovers.
The raw materials are not 100% of build costs. Companies do not have to ask a higher price. I have been checking out your bullshit. Checking out your lack of knowledge. So they charge in dollars. It makes no difference to them how many pounds it costs. With a weaker pound they get the same amount of dollars but it costs us less pounds. Then when we export we charge the same amount as before in our £ but the product is cheaper for them to buy. Or we could be sly and ask more to make more.
One more question. Why have you gone quiet about the share price crash that you said was happening? Is it because you was wrong about that as well?
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clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I think it proved that the poster who linked it hadn't actually read the report just the article and like a typical mail reader that was enough for him to consider himself informed, I might be wrong.
I 'm all for as much information as possible.
Astute
Well-Known Member
I don't get your point.
Someone posts a link. Link isn't good news about the EU. You post the link to what the article is about. I point out that it is even worse news for the EU and not just picking out the best points for a paper article. You blame person who posted first link for not checking it out first for some strange reason
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
you're right. you don't get it.
Astute
Well-Known Member
I don't get what?
More like you scan read the link you put on. But when you consider what was said it wasn't the good news for the EU like you first thought. Maybe you thought that the Daily Mail was cherry picking the juicy bits. But it wasn't. Now you are picking fault with them for not using more points.
You just couldn't make it up in real life
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I don't get what?
More like you scan read the link you put on. But when you consider what was said it wasn't the good news for the EU like you first thought. Maybe you thought that the Daily Mail was cherry picking the juicy bits. But it wasn't. Now you are picking fault with them for not using more points.
You just couldn't make it up in real life
Not at all the mail did all they needed to do to satisfy their readership, print a couple of quotes and don't actually link the report, that's enough to get them hot under the collar. it's poor journalism but it suits the readership.
There's also an IMF report on the effects of Brexit on the UK which doesn't paint the rosiest of pictures, (also on their website), but for some reason no one linked that, I wonder why?
The jist of that report is that their is a great level of uncertainty around the UKs economic future in the event of an exit (which hasn't happened yet by the way), but I'm sure you'll dismiss that report.
You seem to be confusing me with someones who's vehemently pro EU, I'm not, as I've stated, I voted remain as the lesser of 2 evils.
I believe brexit will be a bad thing but I wouldn't be shocked if it wasn't I'm just amazed at how cock sure leavers are that everything's going to come up roses when there's a minefield of conflicting information which they either rehash or ignore according to their agenda.
In my opinion if it's relevant get it out there, hence I linked the report and not a couple of salacious quotes.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
You are so full of nonsense and fail to grasp the basics of running a business. You completely prove the saying that you can't debate stupid. It's simple, if something cost more to build you have two choices, sell at the same price and cut your margins or put your prices up to maintain margin. I don't work for a charity I work for a company that needs to maintain profit to run successfully so that only leaves the choice of price increases to maintain profit.
As for your comments about shares again you are so stupidly far of the mark of what I've actually been saying it's laughable.
What I've actually said is that you have to look at certain types of shares in isolation as these are indicators of the economy. Specifically banking and house builders share prices which have took big hits in contrast to other sectors in the FTSE. As always you look at the headline and think you're well informed. If you actually paid any attention to the details you would have realised that house builders actually had a very good day on Friday and did a great deal of recovery and you could have easily used that point to form a structured argument that would be worth having but you're to hung up on the headlines to actually realise that there is a positive sign for the British economy that would ease fears of those who are concerned about the economy post brexit.
You really don't have any clue but then you think that we can say that we're not in recession after two weeks when in fact it's going to be two quarters before anyone can say one way or the other so that's hardly surprising.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
You are both right and neither of you is thick.
If the imports are denominated in USD and USD strengthens, the price of exports to the US decreases which will increase sales (or permit you to increase profit margin).
Similarly, domestic sales price increases and sales will drop (or reduce profit margin).
It gets complicated for sales to the Eurozone, where the EUR hasn't strengthened as much as the USD. Then it depends on the relative strengthening of the USD and EUR and the mix of Import and Domestic costs for the product.
If the imports are denominated in USD and USD strengthens, the price of exports to the US decreases which will increase sales (or permit you to increase profit margin).
Similarly, domestic sales price increases and sales will drop (or reduce profit margin).
It gets complicated for sales to the Eurozone, where the EUR hasn't strengthened as much as the USD. Then it depends on the relative strengthening of the USD and EUR and the mix of Import and Domestic costs for the product.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
I agree:
1) What is weighing on the UK is uncertainty and nothing else.
2) Being cocksure one way or the other is daft - we don't know.
I voted Leave as the lesser of two evils but it was a close call and I won't be surprised if it goes badly (we should judge this in 5 years time after it all settles down). Similarly, I wouldn't have been surprised if staying had gone badly.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
I'm pretty much in the same place, although I voted remain as the lesser of two evils.
What I have an issue with is the denial by some of what is currently happening in the economy. The denial that the pound has crashed when all you actually have to do is look at the tables of the last month that are readily available online of the pound against every major currency and if you overlay them the graph's all have the same cliff in them and the pound is still at the bottom two weeks later. The simplistic view that pound for pound exports are cheaper when there's a whole bigger picture behind export prices, people are taking a currency conversion and thinking it's a price conversion. I have a mate who's insisting that he's still going to get the same amount of euros for his holiday to Spain this year as he did last when in fact this time last year he would have got something like €1.40 to the pound and currently it's something like €1.18 to the pound last time I looked.
There are so many brexit voters in denial of basic facts it's flabbergasting.
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Astute
Well-Known Member
More like it is people like yourself trying to twist the truth all the time.
Strangely enough I have just finished buying Euros online to be delivered. I got just over 1.15 which is less than you think. But the way you have worded it you would think that I would have got 1.40 if we never voted leave.
And why is it you still call it a crash when none of those that know what they are talking about call it so?
Astute
Well-Known Member
But you need to take into context what he is saying. Our currency has supposedly crashed. It is supposedly bad for buying and selling abroad.
But the truth is if we pay in pounds or dollars buying becomes cheaper. It would be someone taking the opportunity to make more money to charge more. The dollar is the dollar however much it costs us to buy. Putting it politely he is either twisting the truth as usual or hasn't got a clue.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
I did the maths on a piece of paper, using algebra to avoid specifics. My statements above are based on that alone.
Is it the word "crashed" you object to? I agree that it's rather emotive. If we change that to the the factual statement that "the pound has recently *fallen* against most other currencies" does that help?
FWIW, I think it's unlikely that a UK company importing raw materials in USD and selling in Europe is losing out. For that to happen, 58% of the total cost of manufacture (including profit margin) would have to be USD denominated (I used actual differences in USD and EUR FX rates taken from 15 June and Friday). As labour is usually a large proportion of manufacturing costs and profit margin must be 20%ish it would be a very strange set up.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
Don't get too worked up about the FX rate at this point Tony. It was inevitable and we're playing the long game. I was always certain that GBP would weaken and the markets would fall immediately on a Leave vote. This is a medium to long term gamble.
The gamble to Remain had short term with it - but it was also a medium and long term bet.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Twist what? I don't produce the graphs, control exchange rates etc. I've not twisted anything. I've provided links to official data that doesn't fit your denial that's all.
So the exchange rate is worse than I thought. Thanks for the confirmation. I've got €540 euros left from last years holiday and according to the ticket in it I got €1.42 euros to the pound. That's the hell of a change. I couldn't say what you would have got had voted to remain but if you look at the data of the last month the pound has the same crash against the euro as it does against all major currency so unlike what my mate thinks you would have almost certainly got more than you have post brexit.
As regards to the crash comment like I repeatedly told you yesterday go and read a dictionary.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
I understand that and I'm not worked up that much about the exchange rate at the moment. Like I said it's the denial of the issue I have trouble with not the issue itself. At this moment in time it's not impacting on my cost of living so much but if it continues to bump along at current levels that will start to take effect soon. It will impact on my cost of holidaying this year at current levels though so it will be a choice of doing less or paying more.
Remaining would have killed all debate altogether. At least folk have a better understanding now or should do. If we had Remained, the EU would have carried on as before taking billions of pounds off us and not listening to a word from the UK. They said themselves that 'we would be getting divorced, but it wasn't a tight marriage anyway', too right it wasn't. This was the British peoples last chance for a generation to make a bold political statement and they did !
Astute
Well-Known Member
This is the difference between you and me. I say it how it is. You seem to be on a mission to make everything about voting to leave sound as bad as you can and make out that remaining would have been perfect.
And I have taken a look at the latest thing you have been crying about. 1st April 2015 you would have got 1.37 Euro for your pound. 1st April 2016 you would have got 1.1353 for your pound. Less than you will get now. Please remind me of the date of the vote.......
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
23rd of June. What would you have got then? How was the pound compared to the rest of the world currency then? How was it a couple of days later?
Astute
Well-Known Member
Are you on drugs?
The exchange rate had shot up to 1.30euro to the pound just before the vote on hopes of a remain vote. The money people were so sure it was going to happen.......
Astute
Well-Known Member
You just can't stand being wrong can you?
The drop in value since the vote is less than was lost since April by the Euro against the pound . And neither time was it a crash for either currency.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
The key words there being since April. Your trying to compare a fall that happened over months to a more severe fall the happened over days. That's the difference between decline and a crash. One is gradual one is sudden and dramatic. Go and buy a dictionary FFS.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
So now you're saying that brexit has effected the value of the pound. Make your mind up.
Astute
Well-Known Member
What a knob you are.
I said before the vote that we would have reductions in values while we have uncertainty after a leave vote. And Cameron resigning added to the uncertainty. I said once the uncertainty was over the pound would raise again. And I have said all of these several times. The pound rose quite a lot leading up to the vote because the money people were happy thinking it would be a remain vote.
And now you are saying I never said that voting leave would make a difference
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
think CD is referring to the $
Astute
Well-Known Member
You could be right there. But the dollar hadn't been mentioned for a bit so wasn't expected. So apologies Chiefdave
Putting up with someone like Tony screws yer melon. He hasn't got a clue but thinks he is winning a debate. Otherwise he is just a wum. I now feel sorry for those that have had to put up with him previously
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
You are funny astute. You've just spent the last god knows how many page's denying that the pound has crashed. All I've done is point out the facts and provided links to them facts. You've even tried re-writing the definition of the word crash. As well as trying to redefine what constitutes whether we are or aren't in recession. Just to recap it's a measurement over two quarters not two weeks.
The fact is that not only has the pound crashed it's crashed across the board to everything that I can see except the Argentinian peso. A presentation of fact's is not wumming. It's proving your assumptions wrong. Sorry it doesn't fit with you but unfortunately facts are facts.
Still, it's a new week ahead and who knows what will happen. Maybe the shares in the house builders will continue to improve, maybe the pound will start to bounce back, maybe you'll notice. Who knows.
The fact is that not only has the pound crashed it's crashed across the board to everything that I can see except the Argentinian peso. A presentation of fact's is not wumming. It's proving your assumptions wrong. Sorry it doesn't fit with you but unfortunately facts are facts.
Still, it's a new week ahead and who knows what will happen. Maybe the shares in the house builders will continue to improve, maybe the pound will start to bounce back, maybe you'll notice. Who knows.
Astute
Well-Known Member
So the Euro crashed then the pound crashed
Our currency has been weak for years partly because we are part of the EU. We have lost value since the vote because of the uncertainty. But our value went up before the vote because the money people thought they would get the remain vote that their money making strategies needed so the losses were nowhere near as bad as you make them out to be. Do you follow this Tony?
When the uncertainty has started to be sorted out the pound will strengthen. Countries are ready to deal with us. Germany don't want to put tariffs between us and them otherwise it will cost them a fortune. So our trading with the remaining EU countries should remain about the same. If not the world is a bigger place to trade with than a mainly skint EU. Are you following Tony?
Our currency has been weak for years partly because we are part of the EU. We have lost value since the vote because of the uncertainty. But our value went up before the vote because the money people thought they would get the remain vote that their money making strategies needed so the losses were nowhere near as bad as you make them out to be. Do you follow this Tony?
When the uncertainty has started to be sorted out the pound will strengthen. Countries are ready to deal with us. Germany don't want to put tariffs between us and them otherwise it will cost them a fortune. So our trading with the remaining EU countries should remain about the same. If not the world is a bigger place to trade with than a mainly skint EU. Are you following Tony?
So the Euro crashed then the pound crashed
Our currency has been weak for years partly because we are part of the EU. We have lost value since the vote because of the uncertainty. But our value went up before the vote because the money people thought they would get the remain vote that their money making strategies needed so the losses were nowhere near as bad as you make them out to be. Do you follow this Tony?
When the uncertainty has started to be sorted out the pound will strengthen. Countries are ready to deal with us. Germany don't want to put tariffs between us and them otherwise it will cost them a fortune. So our trading with the remaining EU countries should remain about the same. If not the world is a bigger place to trade with than a mainly skint EU. Are you following Tony?
Our currency has been weak because of being in the EU? It was also, apparently, over valued and due to fall/ has been falling. It is good for exporters when it is weak. Was it weak- good for exporters - due to the EU? If it strenghtens then the exporters will suffer - due to leaving the EU?
Astute
Well-Known Member
So what you are saying is the EU is doing well so all currencies involved should be strong, the pound didn't go up before the vote because the money people expected a remain vote, it is bad for exporters when your currency is weak and a much bigger and better market won't open up to us when we will be allowed to make the trade deals with the rest of the world like the EU have stopped us from doing?
You been taking lessons from Tony?