Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (204 Viewers)

shmmeee · Dec 16, 2021

This is what Lockdown Level 1 in SA is BTW:

“Level 1 entails a curfew from midnight to 4am, and the closing time for all establishments and gathering places is 11pm. Face masks must be worn in public and social distancing must be maintained. Outdoor sports events are limited to 2,000 spectators, and only 100 mourners may attend an indoor funeral service.”

Their highest level includes banning alcohol and tobacco sales. Basically they’re stricter than us already.

David O'Day · Dec 16, 2021

shmmeee said:
This is what Lockdown Level 1 in SA is BTW:

“Level 1 entails a curfew from midnight to 4am, and the closing time for all establishments and gathering places is 11pm. Face masks must be worn in public and social distancing must be maintained. Outdoor sports events are limited to 2,000 spectators, and only 100 mourners may attend an indoor funeral service.”

Their highest level includes banning alcohol and tobacco sales. Basically they’re stricter than us already.

Facts they don't need facts

jordan210 · Dec 16, 2021

..

shmmeee said:
This is what Lockdown Level 1 in SA is BTW:

“Level 1 entails a curfew from midnight to 4am, and the closing time for all establishments and gathering places is 11pm. Face masks must be worn in public and social distancing must be maintained. Outdoor sports events are limited to 2,000 spectators, and only 100 mourners may attend an indoor funeral service.”

Their highest level includes banning alcohol and tobacco sales. Basically they’re stricter than us already.

I doubt anyone realy many follow theses rules. Not like SA follows many laws and rules to start with.

I have friends who travel to SA a lot and have said people dont even realy mention Covid. like a parallel universe.

Frostie · Dec 16, 2021

jordan210 said:
SA have not changed anything

The spin on these kind of headlines is outrageous.

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · Dec 16, 2021

This guy is always spreading the fear regarding Covid. It really is laughable.

chiefdave · Dec 16, 2021

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
This guy is always spreading the fear regarding Covid. It really is laughable.

Not sure leaking a bit of footage of Peston, who is at work and looks to be socially distanced in that footage, is going to be the get out for all the Christmas party stories recently.

jordan210 · Dec 16, 2021

chiefdave said:
Not sure leaking a bit of footage of Peston, who is at work and looks to be socially distanced in that footage, is going to be the get out for all the Christmas party stories recently.

No but shows Peston as the massive hypocrite that he is

shmmeee · Dec 16, 2021

jordan210 said:
..

I doubt anyone realy many follow theses rules. Not like SA follows many laws and rules to start with.

I have friends who travel to SA a lot and have said people dont even realy mention Covid. like a parallel universe.

People don’t follow the rules here either

Your friends would know best but certainly last year they seemed quite serious about it!

South Africa uses water cannon and rubber bullets to enforce lockdown

Heavy-handed police tactics undermines the government’s call for virus testing

www.ft.com

fernandopartridge · Dec 16, 2021

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
This guy is always spreading the fear regarding Covid. It really is laughable.

The guy is an utter wanker, no wonder the country is going down the pipes with dickhead like him at the top of the news media

Liquid Gold · Dec 16, 2021

fernandopartridge said:
The guy is an utter wanker, no wonder the country is going down the pipes with dickhead like him at the top of the news media

If I couldn't see who you were quoting I would genuinely believe this is basically any top journalist at the moment.

Liquid Gold · Dec 16, 2021

Anyway, off to my office Christmas party. The only one in the country that seems to be still going ahead.

PVA · Dec 16, 2021

Big Chris nailing it here

Brighton Sky Blue · Dec 16, 2021

Liquid Gold said:
Anyway, off to my office Christmas party. The only one in the country that seems to be still going ahead.

Didn’t know you played for Stoke

CCFCSteve · Dec 16, 2021

Liquid Gold said:
Anyway, off to my office Christmas party. The only one in the country that seems to be still going ahead.

Fair play mate. Enjoy it !!!!

Quickest way to Downing St is probably tube to Westminster then 7-8 minute walk

David O'Day · Dec 16, 2021

PVA said:
Big Chris nailing it here

wow that Tory MP thought he had a zinger there

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · Dec 16, 2021

chiefdave said:
Not sure leaking a bit of footage of Peston, who is at work and looks to be socially distanced in that footage, is going to be the get out for all the Christmas party stories recently.

It isn´t a competition. They are just all twats in my eyes.

ajsccfc · Dec 16, 2021

Peston has the air of a divorced dad getting a bit too friendly with his daughter's pals

CCFCSteve · Dec 16, 2021

Cases jumped again to 88k, however, this is off 1.6m tests (yesterday’s case total was off around 1.3m ish from memory)

745k boosters at least

PVA · Dec 16, 2021

So it turns out the UK's first Omicron victim was an anti-vaxxer.

So maybe they did die from Omicron and not just with it, @Nick

jordan210 · Dec 16, 2021

PVA said:
So it turns out the UK's first Omicron victim was an anti-vaxxer.

So maybe they did die from Omicron and not just with it, @Nick

From an anonymous unverified source who called LBC during a talk show and said their sister told him their 70 odd year old recluse of a step dad who he hasn't spoken to for years was an anti vaxxer.

Sounds fishy to me.
Here's the story if anyone wants to read it

'He'd be here if he'd had his jabs': Stepson of 'first UK Omicron victim' speaks to LBC

A relative of the UK's 'first Omicron victim' told LBC today that his stepfather was fit and healthy but died after refusing to get his Covid-19 vaccinations after being taken in by anti-vaxxer "conspiracy theories".

www.lbc.co.uk

CCFCSteve · Dec 16, 2021

PVA said:
So it turns out the UK's first Omicron victim was an anti-vaxxer.

So maybe they did die from Omicron and not just with it, @Nick

Is that 100% true ? Heard someone called into LBC but didn’t know if it had been verified. If so, I also heard he was 70 years old. So a 70 year old who hasn’t been jabbed at all

Bugsy · Dec 16, 2021

PVA said:
So it turns out the UK's first Omicron victim was an anti-vaxxer.

So maybe they did die from Omicron and not just with it, @Nick

Don't think it's suitable for points scoring do u

jordan210 · Dec 16, 2021

CCFCSteve said:
Cases jumped again to 88k, however, this is off 1.6m tests (yesterday’s case total was off around 1.3m ish from memory)

745k boosters at least

We realy should focus on percentage of positive tests not the number due to the ridiculous capacity we have

PVA · Dec 16, 2021

Bugsy said:
Don't think it's suitable for points scoring do u

Can you point out where I'm point scoring please?

CCFCSteve · Dec 16, 2021

jordan210 said:
We realy should focus on percentage of positive tests not the number due to the ridiculous capacity we have

I’ve said before, it’s not even really case numbers that are important. It’s hospitalisations and in particular Covid inpatients. I’m hoping that if the variant is milder and vaccine/natural immunity holds up against severe illness, hospitalisations won’t go through the roof and those that are hospitalised will be out in shorter periods which will keep inpatient numbers (and hopefully deaths) under control

Still ifs/hope at the moment though

Bugsy · Dec 16, 2021

PVA said:
Can you point out where I'm point scoring please?

You know yourself what that would look like even if it was a diminutive meaning to it.

LastGarrison · Dec 16, 2021

I take it you don’t find out which variant you have when you test positive?

Have to admit the difference between when my Missus had it back in July and when I had in November was massive.

Mine was definitely more Omicron symptoms than Delta; sneezing, runny nose etc.

duffer · Dec 16, 2021

jordan210 said:
I don't think the NHS or ONS have these figures. As they have never properly studied anti bodies or infection type.

Remember a positive LFT doesn't mean you have it. Yet we count LTF's in figures. a lot of people claim they had covid but that doesn't prove anything.

working on Javids numbers. you would hit the whole population being infected by Christmas. So in theory yes it could burn it self out. Like it looks to have done in SA. Was this predicted a very early on that in history a virus will mutate and become easier to spread but less dangerous ?

Sky did a bit about the numbers. ignore the guy tweeting it

Hmmm...

A few things to clarify the science here - it took me about ten minutes to find these out, so I remain entirely unconvinced that repeating stuff unchecked is in any way smart:

Is there evidence that Omicron can re-infect people who have already had Covid?

Yes.

expert reaction to preprint looking at risk of reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa | Science Media Centre

Do viruses always mutate to become less deadly?

No. (This is a dangerous myth entirely without evidence and anyone who repeats it needs their head checking)

Fact check: Yes, viruses can mutate to become more deadly

A viral tweet shared online falsely claims viruses never mutate to become more lethal.

www.usatoday.com

Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic Was So Deadly | HISTORY

The first strain of the Spanish Flu wasn’t particularly deadly. Then it came back in the fall with a vengeance.

www.history.com

How many cases of Omicron?

Tricky! That 200,000 number wasn't just pulled out of the air though, there's some logic behind it...

How big is the risk of Omicron in the UK and how do we know?

Analysis: Sajid Javid estimates there are 200,000 new cases a day – here’s why the experts suggest that number will soon multiply

www.theguardian.com

The key point is, even if the true number infected is much smaller than that, if it's doubling every two or even three days, then it's going to get much bigger very quickly.

If there was only one person infected on 14th December, and it doubled every three days, then by the end of January there would be 65,000 new infections on that day alone. Three days later, 130,000 new infections, and so on.

Will it burn itself out?

Eventually. But it might not be pretty if we don't slow it down a bit.

from the Guardian article above...

Prof Matt Keeling, of the University of Warwick, said if cases keep doubling we will effectively hit herd immunity. “Infection cannot keep doubling forever,” he said. “There are only a finite number of people to infect, and eventually the outbreak of Omicron would ‘burn itself out’ – but this isn’t going to happen until a lot of people have been infected, which we clearly want to avoid.

I wouldn't pretend for a second to know all of the facts. However, given what we do seem to know already, doing nothing on the basis that it might be milder, or we should wait to see the impacts, or even that the Government are blagging the figures just to protect Boris, just doesn't look sensible to me.

PVA · Dec 16, 2021

Bugsy said:
You know yourself what that would look like even if it was a diminutive meaning to it.

If that's point scoring then god knows what you must think of the rest of this thread!

Wyken Sky Blue · Dec 16, 2021

CCFCSteve said:
Cases jumped again to 88k, however, this is off 1.6m tests (yesterday’s case total was off around 1.3m ish from memory)

745k boosters at least

Do we know how many tests were carried out before Omicron (e.g. mid-November)?

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

Nick · Dec 16, 2021

Even though the headlines are massive, it's still just below 5%

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

David O'Day · Dec 16, 2021

duffer said:
Hmmm...

A few things to clarify the science here - it took me about ten minutes to find these out, so I remain entirely unconvinced that repeating stuff unchecked is in any way smart:

Is there evidence that Omicron can re-infect people who have already had Covid?

Yes.

expert reaction to preprint looking at risk of reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa | Science Media Centre

Do viruses always mutate to become less deadly?

No. (This is a dangerous myth entirely without evidence and anyone who repeats it needs their head checking)

Fact check: Yes, viruses can mutate to become more deadly

A viral tweet shared online falsely claims viruses never mutate to become more lethal.

www.usatoday.com

See also Spanish flu...

Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic Was So Deadly | HISTORY

The first strain of the Spanish Flu wasn’t particularly deadly. Then it came back in the fall with a vengeance.

www.history.com

How many cases of Omicron?

Tricky! That 200,000 number wasn't just pulled out of the air though, there's some logic behind it...

How big is the risk of Omicron in the UK and how do we know?

Analysis: Sajid Javid estimates there are 200,000 new cases a day – here’s why the experts suggest that number will soon multiply

www.theguardian.com

The key point is, even if the true number infected is much smaller than that, if it's doubling every two or even three days, then it's going to get much bigger very quickly.

If there was only one person infected on 14th December, and it doubled every three days, then by the end of January there would be 65,000 new infections on that day alone. Three days later, 130,000 new infections, and so on.

Will it burn itself out?

Eventually. But it might not be pretty if we don't slow it down a bit.

I wouldn't pretend for a second to know all of the facts. However, given what we do seem to know already, doing nothing on the basis that it might be milder, or we should wait to see the impacts, or even that the Government are blagging the figures just to protect Boris, just doesn't look sensible to me.

one point about the Spanish Flu. There is an argument hinted at by some studies that the 1st and 2nd waves of the pandemic where actually 2 different viruses

Study suggests 1918 flu waves were caused by 'distinct' viruses

www.cidrap.umn.edu

duffer · Dec 16, 2021

Saddlebrains said:
You've surely got to start questioning why this government is causing all this panic when the country that experienced it first, and had a hell of a case spike, is just carrying on regardless?

Politely, it's not just this government. Here's the European CDC take on it (VOC = Variant of Concern):

"Although current data on the severity of the infection associated with the Omicron VOC remain limited, evidence to date raises concern that the Omicron VOC may be associated with a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Even in the case of lower infection/disease severity with the Omicron VOC, a steep, exponential increase in cases caused by the Omicron VOC will result in a growing number of cases with severe disease. As EU/EEA countries are still facing the severe impact of the Delta VOC wave, a further rise in hospitalisations could quickly overwhelm healthcare systems. We therefore assess the impact of the spread of the Omicron VOC as VERY HIGH. "

Assessment of the further emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC in the context of the ongoing Delta VOC transmission in the EU/EEA, 18th update

The risk to public health posed by the spread of the Omicron VOC in the context of ongoing Delta VOC transmission in the EU/EEA is assessed in this update.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

And again, I'm not sure panic is quite the right word. I still haven't heard the air raid sirens, and most people seem to be going about their business in a fairly normal way. Except Stoke players, the bastards.

CCFCSteve · Dec 16, 2021

[

skyblue1991 said:
Do we know how many tests were carried out before Omicron (e.g. mid-November)?

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

Mid/late Nov anywhere between 800k to 1m(ish). Changes daily. Since start of Dec around 1.1m, moving to 1.3m. There is no doubt it’s rife. I’d imagine with the high proportion of people double vaccinated/boosted loads of people are walking around with it without knowing as well

Nick · Dec 16, 2021

This is one to watch I guess

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (204 Viewers)

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